Fantasy Football Best Ball ADP Changes - Post NFL Draft Risers and Fallers

June 21, 2024

Which fantasy football players have experienced changes in their draft positions this offseason? Phil looks at players who had their ADPs rise and fall after the 2024 NFL Draft.

Player movement throughout the offseason has repeatedly fueled changes in the fantasy football landscape. This includes the results that unfolded during this year’s NFL Draft, which reshaped depth charts for all 32 teams. This year's draft process also provided clarification surrounding landing spots and draft capital for incoming rookies. Fantasy managers have responded to the developments that transpired during the draft, which has impacted the ADPs for numerous players.

Some veterans will now contend with formidable competition for snaps from first-year players, which has launched the descent of their draft positions. However, other players avoided a potential threat to their roles when their teams failed to make noteworthy additions during the draft.

This article will focus on a group of players whose stock has been rising or falling since the conclusion of this year's draft. The latest ADPs in FFPC best ball drafts were used as the resource in this article, which will focus on the shifting draft positions that could be most relevant when you are constructing your rosters.

Fantasy Football Risers

Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders - ADP 78/RB24 (+26)

Zamir White has benefited significantly as the Raiders have reshaped their backfield during the offseason, and he is primed to operate without a sizable threat to his impending role as the team’s feature back.

Former Viking Alexander Mattison was the only free agent added to the Las Vegas depth chart following the departure of Josh Jacobs. The Raiders also delayed the selection of a running back until Round 6 of the NFL Draft, when Dylan Laube was secured with the 208th overall pick.

Zamir White's vision was on point vs. the Chiefs, and you see it on the last two runs that ended the game.

On the 1st run, he presses the line, holding the LB with his eyes before hitting the C gap behind Johnson for 43.

2nd run, White shows patience and finds the hole backside… pic.twitter.com/CvstOJURxb

— Marcus Johnson (@TheMarcJohnNFL) December 27, 2023

These factors have opened the runway for White to accumulate carries as the team’s RB1, while launching his ADP from Round 9 (104/RB32) to Round 7 (78/RB24). White is also positioned to build upon the numbers that he attained from Weeks 15-18 last season when he tied for the league lead in attempts (84/21 per game), rose to third in rushing yards (397/99.3 per game), and finished fifth in yards after contact (244).

Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals - ADP 88/RB29 (+31)

Zack Moss functioned as the Colts’ lead back when Jonathan Taylor was sidelined with multiple injuries last season, and capitalized by exceeding his previous career highs in a cluster of categories.

Moss also accumulated a league-high 89 carries (22.3 per game) and was second in rushing yards (445/111.3 per game) from Weeks 2-5. He also finished fifth in yards after contact (216) while averaging 21.4 points per game as Taylor contended with an ankle issue.

Jonathan Taylor might be back but Zack Moss apparently doesn't care.

56 yards. Touchdown.pic.twitter.com/7jeXkFtbWe

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 8, 2023

Moss completed the season with career bests in rushing yards (794/56.7 per game) and carries (186/13.1 per game) while finishing seventh in rush yards over expected (129).

Moss signed a two-year deal with Cincinnati and should operate in a rotation with Chase Brown. However, Moss should function as the Bengals’ primary back while commandeering the majority of red-zone carries. His ADP has also risen 31 spots since Cincinnati failed to make any additions to the backfield during the draft. This makes him an enticing option in Round 8 of your upcoming drafts.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys - ADP 124/RB41 (+120)

The meteoric rise of Ezekiel Elliott’s ADP has emerged among the most significant changes that have occurred following the NFL Draft.

Elliott was the 64th back to be selected by fantasy managers before the draft. This left him available until Round 21 (244/RB64). However, the Cowboys surprisingly eschewed their opportunity to secure a back during the draft while opting to sign Elliott to a one-year deal on April 29.

That ignited a substantial jump in Elliott’s ADP, which soared into Round 11 (124/RB41).

Touchdown Ezekiel Elliott!

Uh oh! pic.twitter.com/n8F0sbSEh2

— Savage (@SavageSports_) December 31, 2023

Elliott does not operate with the same level of efficiency that he once possessed, as he averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per attempt in 2023. However, the eight-year veteran also averaged 14.4 attempts/42.6 rushing yards per game from Weeks 14-18. He also vaulted to second among all backs in both targets (34/6.8 per game) and receptions (27/5.4 per game), and finished 10th in points per game (16.4). Elliott could easily lead the Dallas backfield in touches while operating in a rotation with Rico Dowdle and Royce Freeman.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - ADP 57/WR27 (+18)

George Pickens is among the most significant risers at wide receiver since the NFL Draft, as his ADP has ascended from Round 7 (75/WR35) to Round 5 (57/WR27) after the Steelers failed to make a significant addition to their depth chart during the draft.

Pickens led all wide receivers in yards per reception (18.1) during 2023 and was fourth in yards per target (10.8), eighth in yards before catch per reception (11.9), and 16th in receiving yards (1,140/67.1 per game). Pickens' numbers were also impacted by substandard quarterback play and the presence of Diontae Johnson.

However, Pickens ascended atop Pittsburgh’s depth chart when the Steelers traded Johnson to Carolina in March. His impending role as Pittsburgh’s WR1 has remained unchallenged following the draft, as third-round selection Roman Wilson is not a threat to leapfrog Perkins on the depth chart.

Ridiculous catch by George Pickens. pic.twitter.com/7pJb7mbTWr

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 31, 2023

Perkins can exceed his previous career highs in multiple categories regardless of whether Russell Wilson or Justin Fields is spearheading the Steelers’ revamped attack -- provided that Arthur Smith curtails his affinity for underutilizing his most talented offensive weaponry.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Buffalo Bills - ADP 128/WR51 (+52)

Curtis Samuel has not been eliciting the same level of discussion as many other wide receivers in recent weeks. However, his ADP has skyrocketed 52 spots since the Bills reshaped their receiving arsenal during the draft.

Buffalo’s general manager, Brandon Beane, traded out of the first round while delaying his opportunity to address the Bills' depleted depth chart at wide receiver. Beane eventually secured Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick. However, that selection does not alter Samuel's navigable path to a sizable role within a revamped attack that no longer contains Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis.

Samuel has also been reunited with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who concocted Carolina’s offense when Samuel generated career highs in target share (18.4%), receptions (77/5.1 per game), receiving yards (851/56.7 per game), yards after catch (320), rushing attempts (41/2.7 per game), and rushing yards (200/48.8 per game) in 2020.

Really excited to see what Curtis Samuel does in Joe Brady’s offense

Brady’s offense is centered around yards after the catch and Samuel fits that mold perfectly #BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/sAprSMgwOe

— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) May 5, 2024

Samuel's history with Brady and his versatility should keep him on the field while operating as a reliable weapon for Josh Allen.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions - ADP 111/WR48 (+15)

Jameson Williams' ADP has climbed since the Lions abstained from selecting a wide receiver during the draft. This occurred after general manager Brad Holmes had also refrained from adding a receiver during free agency. These factors should combine with Josh Reynolds’ departure in expanding Williams’ opportunities to function as an explosive downfield presence.

Jared Goff 🚀Jameson Williams

45-yard TOUCHDOWN 🙌

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ZfjO5zYKHf

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 15, 2023

Williams will operate as the Lions' undisputed WR2, and he should also be available in Week 1 for the first time in his career. A torn ACL forced his absence from Weeks 1-12 in 2022, and a suspension (violation of league gambling policy) sidelined him from Weeks 1-4 last season.

The Lions utilized the 12th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft to secure Williams and the team remains committed to capitalizing on his home-run potential. That elevates him among the most intriguing options for fantasy managers at his Round 10 ADP.

Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets - ADP 133/TE18 (+51)

Despite conjecture that New York could seize Brock Bowers in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, the Jets bypassed that opportunity while opting to secure offensive tackle Olu Fashanu.

That has contributed to the surge of 51 spots in Tyler Conklin’s ADP, as there is no tight end on the Jets' roster who looms as a threat to confiscate targets.

Gonna see a lot of this in the fall for the Jets… Expecting a big season from Tyler Conklin pic.twitter.com/ej6g6nlVzs

— Will Parkinson (@Willpa11) May 8, 2024

Conklin role as New York’s TE1 should be unchallenged by backups Jeremy Ruckert, Kenny Yeboah, Zack Kuntz, and Lincoln Sefcik, who have combined for 31 targets/21 receptions/223 receiving yards/no touchdowns during their careers.

Conklin collected 87 targets (5.1 per game) for a third consecutive season in 2023 while tying his career high in receptions (61/3.6 per game) and accumulating a career-best 621 yards (36.5 per game). He also assembled those numbers while operating primarily with Zach Wilson under center. Conklin can exceed the expectations of his Round 12 ADP if Aaron Rodgers can elude injuries.

Fantasy Football Fallers

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers - 123/QB17 (-26)

The massive transformation that is unfolding with the Los Angeles Chargers includes a reconstruction of the offense that will reflect Jim Harbaugh’s relentless commitment to the run.

The strategic approach that Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman will implement is destined to reduce the Chargers’ reliance on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles aerial attack. Concerns surrounding Herbert's imminent drop in production were reinforced by the offseason exodus of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler.

Their departures also contributed to a drop of 18 spots in Herbert’s ADP from February (79/QB8) to March (97/QB11) even though fantasy managers were still selecting him as a QB1. However, the process accelerated after Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz declined the opportunity to seize Malik Nabers with the fifth pick during the draft. The Chargers did select Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice, although that did less to bolster Herbert’s diminished arsenal of receiving weapons.

Herbert’s ADP has now plunged an additional 26 spots, as he will fail to approach the number of attempts and completions he accrued while finishing among the top four in both categories from 2020-2022.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams - ADP 25/RB8 (-14)

Even though other players in this section have experienced more significant drops in their ADPs, the descending draft position of Kyren Williams remains worthy of mention.

Williams was among the first five backs to be selected during best ball drafts in March (11/RB5). This was justifiable in the aftermath of his exceptional 2023 season when he finished second in points per game scoring (21.3) and averaged a league-best 95.3 rushing yards per game.

Kyren Williams dynasty managers after the Rams pick Blake Corum pic.twitter.com/YPjGQut8Sk

— James D Koh (@JamesDKoh) April 27, 2024

An obstacle was placed in Williams’ unencumbered runway to a massive workload when the Rams selected Blake Corum in Round 3 of the draft (83rd overall). The injection of Corum into the backfield equation has fueled the descent of Williams’ ADP into Round 3 (25/RB8).

Williams should still function as the lead back in Sean McVay’s offense. However, Corum can confiscate a weekly allotment of touches that will prevent Williams from sustaining the extensive workload that appeared inevitable before the draft unfolded.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers - ADP 162/RB53 (-51)

Chuba Hubbard seized lead-back duties in Carolina during 2023 after that role had initially been entrusted to Miles Sanders. He was seemingly positioned to sustain responsibilities as the Panthers’ primary back under new head coach Dave Canales after Carolina abstained from signing another back during free agency. This kept Hubbard’s ADP positioned in Round 10 before the draft (111/RB35).

Running with it ‼️ pic.twitter.com/Dr9ah1gw7s

— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) April 27, 2024

Unfortunately for Hubbard, the Panthers became the first team to secure a running back during the draft when they seized Jonathon Brooks in Round 2 (46th overall). Brooks is capable of thriving as an every-down back once he has recovered from the torn ACL that he suffered in November.

The addition of Brooks should dramatically reduce Hubbard’s prospects of matching the workload that he commandeered last season while vaulting to second in carries (224/16.1 per game), 12th in rushing yards (824/58.9 per game), and 10th in yards after contact (533) from Weeks 4-18. The selection of Brooks has also launched a sizable plunge in Hubbard's ADP, which has dropped to Round 14 (162/RB53).

A.J. Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers - ADP 265/RB70 (-57)

A.J. Dillon is entering his fifth season with Green Bay after signing a one-year deal with the Packers in March. He returns to a backfield that has transitioned from Aaron Jones to Josh Jacobs as the Packers’ lead back. However, Dillon has encountered an additional threat to his role following the Packers’ selection of MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3 of the draft (88th overall).

Lloyd’s arrival should prevent Dillon from replicating his averages of 12.9 touches/59.8 total yards per game since 2021. It could also foreshadow a conclusion to Dillon’s three-year stint as the RB2 for Green Bay.

Dillon was selected in Round 18 during the initial months of the draft season, but his ADP has dropped 57 spots since Lloyd was added to the equation. Lloyd’s effectiveness as both a rusher and pass-catcher should keep him involved in the Packers’ distribution of touches while Dillon’s diminished role should compel you to avoid him during your drafts.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears - ADP 69/WR33 (-19)

Keenan Allen secured a league-high 32.3% target share from Weeks 1-14 and collected a league-best 150 targets (11.5 per game) before a heel injury sidelined him from Weeks 15-18.

Fantasy managers were selecting him in Round 3 of the January best ball drafts (26/WR14) amid uncertainty regarding his future with the Chargers. Allen’s draft position also dropped to Round 5 in March (50/WR26) following the trade that sent him to Chicago. This positioned the 32-year-old Allen to operate as the Bears’ WR2 behind DJ Moore while no longer stockpiling targets as his team’s unquestioned WR1.

However, Allen’s ADP has descended even further (69/WR33) after it became apparent that he would also share targets with Rome Odunze -- who was selected ninth in the NFL Draft. The presence of Moore and the infusion of Odunze into the Bears’ receiving arsenal will ensure that Allen cannot replicate the extensive targeting that became customary with the Chargers.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos - ADP 188/WR70 (-22)

It appeared that second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr. was a strong candidate to improve significantly upon the disappointing numbers that he registered last season (38% snap share, 33 targets/2.1 per game, 22 receptions/1.4 per game, 377 receiving yards/23.6 per game) after Denver jettisoned Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland in March.

Mims’ Round 14 ADP remained unchanged throughout most of April (166/WR65) even though the Broncos signed former Lion Josh Reynolds to a two-year deal during free agency.

My comp for Troy Franklin is taller Marvin Mims pic.twitter.com/f4Ihjn27zh

— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) March 10, 2024

However, Mims’ draft position has plunged to Round 17 (ADP 188/WR70) since the NFL Draft. Denver’s selection of Troy Franklin in Round 4 elevates the newcomer into a mix of receiving weaponry that also contains Courtland Sutton, Reynolds, and Mims. Franklin’s arrival has also emerged as an obstacle that could impede Mims from securing a meaningful increase to last year’s unimpressive 8.0% target share.

Mims still remains worthy of consideration at his diminished ADP, as Sean Payton could be compelled to integrate Mims’ explosiveness into the Broncos’ aerial attack with greater frequency.

Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots - ADP 219/WR78 (-17)

While Demario Douglas has not been a viable option until your drafts have moved into the later rounds, he did enter the offseason as the Patriots’ prospective WR1. He had ascended into that role during his rookie season while leading New England’s wide receivers in routes run (357), targets (79/5.6 per game), receptions (49/3.5 per game), receiving yards (561/40.1 per game), and yards after catch (336).

The potential for Douglas to sustain his integral role remained intact following free agency when K.J. Osborn was the only addition to the Patriots’ depth chart. However, Douglas’s ADP has dropped 17 spots after the Patriots invested in Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker during the NFL Draft.

Polk secured Round 2 draft capital and should quickly ascend into an expanding role this season. Baker has the size and ball-tracking ability to emerge as a downfield weapon. The infusion of both newcomers into New England’s reconstructed offense decreases the rationale for selecting Douglas, even at his declining ADP.

Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders - ADP 225/TE29 (-105)

Michael Mayer was a potential beneficiary of Luke Getsy’s arrival in Las Vegas when Getsy was named as the Raiders offensive coordinator. This appeared to bolster Mayer’s chances of assembling numbers that easily exceeded the modest results he had attained in 2023 (40 targets/2.9 per game, 27 receptions/1.9 per game, 304 receiving yards/21.7 per game).

His ADP was also located in Round 10 before the NFL Draft (120/TE18), as fantasy managers were selecting him as a mid-range TE2. However, any optimism surrounding Mayer has evaporated following the Raiders’ decision to seize Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick in the draft.

Mayer’s ADP has plummeted to Round 19, as he will be relegated to a diminished role in an offense that will be guided by an uninspiring quarterback. Mayer’s ability to gain relevance will be largely determined by the frequency with which Getsy utilizes 12 personnel, although Bowers’ presence will place an ongoing restriction on Mayer’s output.

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Fantasy Football Analysis