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Rookies are a dicey proposition in fantasy basketball. Most NBA players don't get enough playing time their rookie seasons, or they have flaws in their young game that hamper their value. However, there are a number of rookies every season who are useful and a very select few who are instant fantasy stars (think Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, and Damian Lillard).
When you're taking a chance on an unknown quantity like a rookie, it is that star upside at a cheap price that you are going for, and what almost all of the players who have become rookie stars have in common is that they were selected in the lottery portion of the NBA draft. Today we will focus on the 14 lottery picks from 2015 NBA Draft and rank them for fantasy purposes in their rookie seasons.
Ranking the 2015 NBA Lottery Picks
Tier 1: Potential Stars
1. Karl-Anthony Towns (PF/C, MIN)
The number one overall pick was an analytics darling heading into the draft, then did enough in the eye test to blow away the non-analytically-minded Coach/GM with the number one overall pick, Flip Saunders (get well soon, coach). What's so great about his game translates extremely well to category-based fantasy basketball. He will be a strong source of rebounds and blocks, like you expect out of an elite big man. But he'll also avoid the biggest weaknesses of most big men -- he's an excellent free throw shooter, a decent passer, and possibly even an occasional three point shooter.
The difference between him hitting, say, an .850 FT% and 2.0 assists per game versus Hassan Whiteside shooting a .500 FT% with 0.1 assists is massive. Towns doesn't need to be as good at rebounding or at blocking shots as Whiteside to have top 50 value like Whiteside did last season. He just needs to come fairly close and make up the value in other categories. And it's been so far, so good in the preseason -- after three games, Whiteside's line sits at a nerd-pleasing .535 FG%, .909 FT%, 12.7 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 0.0 3pm, 1.7 stl, and 1.0 blk in 24.7 minutes. The only red flags are an average of 2.0 turnovers and 3.3 personal fouls, which are areas where he'll need to improve in order to stay on the court, but not unexpected from a young player seeing his first action at the NBA level.
In future seasons, I expect him to turn into a first round caliber fantasy player. This year, he doesn't need to be -- he just needs to be decent everywhere to make a good return on your investment for your fantasy team.
2. D'Angelo Russell (PG, LAL)
You want more security than a 19 year old PF? Take a look at a list of the players who have won the NBA Rookie of the Year Award over the last decade. Paul. Rose. Kyrie Irving. Lillard. Michael Carter-Williams. A whole lot of point guards. Meanwhile, most of the other winners of later have been wings, like Kevin Durant and Andrew Wiggins. The only big man that's won ROY in the last 10 seasons has been Blake Griffin, who wasn't really a rookie in the purest sense. An injury did prevent him from playing in the 2009-10 season, but he still got to work with an NBA team and learn the NBA game in that time.
It seems explosive guards and shooters are more likely to make an instant impact on offense with those skills than big men -- making an impact in the front court seems to have a steeper learning curve. I obviously think Towns has the skills to buck that trend if he can stay healthy, but I won't blame you if you think a skilled point guard like D'Angelo Russell is a safer bet.
Besides, this isn't just any guard. D'Angelo Russell has one of the best combinations of shooting and passing ability to come out of college in years. He has the skillset to make an instant impact in fantasy leagues when it comes to scoring, assists, and three-pointers. The biggest question will be playing time in a crowded backcourt that also features Kobe Bryant, Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, and Nick Young. But Russell can play both at the point alongside Kobe and off-ball alongside Clarkson, and it seems pointless for a team going nowhere this year like the Lakers to bury a young star like Russell behind guys like Williams and Young. Russell will earn plenty of minutes in those roles even if he isn't named starter out of the gate.
3. Stanley Johnson (SF, DET)
It's amazing how much Johnson's stock has risen in the past couple of weeks. When I first started trying to rank these guys, I had him in the middle of the pack. He was only picked 8th overall by Detroit, after all. But I've had a double-shot of Koolaid on him over the course of the preseason, and even now I'm extremely tempted to move him up to 2nd ahead of Russell. Johnson looks to be a huge part of the Pistons rotation, averaging the most minutes of any Piston in the preseason as coach Stan Van Gundy looks to see what he's capable of -- which appears to be quite a lot. His stat line through four preseason games is .418 FG%, .842 FT% (on a very nice 4.8 FTA/game), 17.2 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.8 3pm, 1.0 stl, and 0.8 blk. Those are some excellent all-around contributions.
Johnson is going to get starter's minutes and he's going to make contributions across the board in fantasy. His offensive game is unpolished, which will likely limit his scoring and FG%, but he appears to be an otherwise nice all-around contributor. Maybe I'm delusional and a fool (feel free to tell me in chat) for having Johnson this high. Or maybe I'm delusional about the power of Russell's talent to overcome his situation, and a fool for not having a guy like Johnson ranked 2nd who looks tremendous so far in a great situation.
Tier 2: Big Chances, Flawed Fantasy Games
4. Emmanuel Mudiay (PG, DEN)
Emmanuel Mudiay actually has a better opportunity in Denver than D'Angelo Russell has in Los Angeles. Mudiay will be sharing the point in Denver with Jameer Nelson, as opposed to Russell's situation with Clarkson and all those ball-hogging two-guards. And while Russell has a much better offensive game, Mudiay has a certain set of skills in other areas that can make up some of the difference with Russell. Mudiay's problem is that, while athletic, his offensive game is quite raw. The athleticism will allow him to grab more rebounds, steals, and blocks than Russell. However, his rawness will lead to terrible numbers in both FG% and FT%, with an atrocious number of turnovers.
I think the playing time will give Mudiay a chance to have some raw situational value in some head-to-head leagues, but I wouldn't bother in roto -- I don't want inefficiency sinking me in three categories. That's the problem with inefficiency -- even if you're lucky enough to get big minutes, that just makes a guy's terrible percentages and turnover rates hurt you even more. Mudiay's absolute upside for this year looks something like the rookie season that Michael Carter-Williams had for the 76ers in 2013-14, with high counting stats killed by horrible efficiency stats.
5. Jahlil Okafor (PF/C, PHI)
Okafor, it was popular to point out going into the NBA draft, has one of the most polished post games to come out of the draft in years. That will allow him to do some nice things scoring the ball in the pro game. He's as good a bet as any to lead this year's rookie class in points per game, and he'll have a nice FG%.
Unfortunately, there are holes in Okafor's game. The biggest one -- the achilles heel of many a big man -- is his free throw shooting. He's not very good at the charity stripe, and that's going to hurt you unless you're punting the stat in a head-to-head league. The other problems will come in rebounds and blocks, which are important stats to be getting in vast quantities out of a big man who's going to be non-factor in assists and threes and a negative in FT%. He wasn't as great as you'd expect in those areas in college, and playing alongside a dominant under-the-basket player in Nerlens Noel is going to further hurt Okafor. When they share the court, Noel is going to essentially "steal" rebounds from Okafor and occupy the defensive spot under the basket where it's easier to generate blocks.
I think Okafor is going to be empty scoring and FG% this year, and he only sits ahead of several other higher potential guys because he's guaranteed to get playing time.
Tier 3: Upside Skills, Uneven Playing Time
6. Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C, NYK)
7. Myles Turner (PF/C, IND)
I'm going to start speeding things up as we get into guys who are less and less likely to have fantasy relevance in standard leagues. Both Kristaps Porzingis and Myles Turner I can cover at the same time. The two forwards have the upside to be excellent combos of blocks and threes, with nice percentages. That's what you're looking for in the modern rotisserie basketball big man. However, both are very raw, young players, and both are currently nursing injuries that have limited their chances to shine in the preseason, so they're unlikely to see much playing time out of the gate in the regular season. I like both of these guys as watch list / ready to add guys in the event that they find their way into serious playing time, but that's unlikely at this point and it's not worth burning a draft pick or an early roster spot.
8. Justise Winslow (SF, MIA)
Winslow has been struggling in the preseason, and isn't guaranteed minutes in Miami yet. However, he's capable of making some nice contributions in the defensive stats and in threes if he can get used to the game and work his way into the rotation. He's a just a gamer, too -- I want to believe in him.
Tier 4: Category Specialists
9. Willie Cauley-Stein (C, SAC)
Cauley-Stein should be a reasonable source of steals, blocks, and boards, but is an absolutely black hole on offense. He's best reserved as a specialist to add in H2H leagues for a game or two when you need defensive stats in a matchup.
10. Frank Kaminsky (C, CHA)
Kaminsky could be a decent source of threes as a C, which is useful if you're streaming in a league that forces you to play two centers. He'd need to add value in the defensive stats to be taken more seriously.
11. Mario Hezonja (SG, ORL)
12. Devin Booker (SG, PHO)
Mario Hezonja and Devin Booker both have long-term potential to develop into good NBA wings, but they are both going to be three point shooters without adding much else to start their careers. There are plenty of guys like that always available on waivers in most leagues.
Tier 5: Completely Buried On The Depth Chart
13. Cameron Payne (PG, OKC)
Has some promise as a shooter at the point, but well behind minutes-devouring all-world starter Russell Westbrook and solid veteran backup PG DJ Augustin.
14. Trey Lyles (PF, UTA)
A raw young forward on a team pretty well set at power forward with Derrick Favors and Trevor Booker.
