How To Win The First Three Rounds - Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategies and Players To Target (2026)

March 2, 2026

Mike's fantasy baseball expert draft strategies and players to target in the first three rounds of 2026 drafts. He provides draft tips on how to win the early rounds.

We are in the best time of the year for fantasy baseball players; yes, it is draft season. Some sites allow us now to draft year-round, but many of us wait until February to delve into those first drafts. And that time is here. In the first three rounds of your draft, you are looking to load up on those counting stats. Simply put, the goal in a standard 5x5 league is to accumulate players who help you in at least four of the five categories: batting average (or OBP in some leagues), home runs, runs batted in, runs scored, and stolen bases.

A quick note here on my philosophy (take it or leave it): I have tried builds with taking an ace in the first three rounds. While it can work for many drafters, it never works out for me; it always leaves me chasing valuable counting stats on offense, and I struggle to make up for it later in drafts. Let's say you are picking seventh in a 12-team league. In a 12-team league, you should have your pick of a great outfielder or shortstop at pick seven.

Some might choose Julio Rodriguez, Elly De La Cruz, or Corbin Carroll at the seventh spot. In full transparency, Carroll just underwent hamate bone removal this week, so his value could be pushed to the second round in some leagues. The ATC projections of three potential targets are listed below. Let's break down each round and analyze the top targets to draft.

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Round 1 Mindset and Draft Targets

The box below shows 2026 projections.

All three of these players would be great foundations for your fantasy team, but De La Cruz would be my pick here. See below.

Yes, his second half did crater a bit, but the likely culprit was a quad injury that slowed his running and sapped his power. I will give him a mulligan.

Round 2 Mindset and Draft Targets

Moving to Round 2, you will have the 18th pick. Looking at current ADP values on NFBC, you could have your pick of Junior Caminero, Jackson Chourio, or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Here are the ATC projections:

Fantasy players may not always think about it, but you have to build backward. Choices you make early on in drafts must be considered in subsequent rounds. You need to make sure you balance your desire for counting stats and ratio control with the thought of drafting a player who still can get to the next level. We call that upside.

I am planning on "Frankensteining" my third base position, so I would likely pass on Caminero. Caminero also may have had some inflation playing half of his home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025. Chourio could expand on his excellent second season as a former top prospect. If you want a great first baseman, Guerrero Jr. is a terrific choice. I am fine waiting on first base, too, so I would likely choose Chourio here.

So let's choose Chourio. A great package of batting average, power, speed, and runs. Let's make him our number one outfielder here. 

If Carroll fell to my pick in the second round given the recent injury concerns, I would take him over Chourio here.

Round 3 Mindset and Draft Targets

Let's take a look at possible third-round targets for your team. If you start with the seventh pick, you will pick 31st overall in the third round. Per NFBC ADP in 12-team drafts, the following players could be available to you:

Your choice here depends on what you did earlier. If you chose De La Cruz, your decision here comes down to a young outfielder or the best second baseman on the board. I think you can wait this year on second base, so I would choose between Crow-Armstrong and Wood.

Crow-Armstrong really struggled in the second half last season, and I think the home runs will come back down to the low teens, with a .240 batting average and 35 stolen bases. Wood offers a higher power upside and will hit around .260 with 15-20 steals. Based on research, I would prefer Wood here. His Statcast profile is below.

Now, after your first three picks, you have De La Cruz, Chourio, and Wood. So, you are hoping for a batting average of around .270, 80+ home runs, 250+ RBI, 250+ runs, and 75+ stolen bases. That is a great base, in my opinion.

If you start a draft with those three, you can likely then take an ace in the fourth round and maybe get a closer in the sixth or seventh round, too. The goal is to build a broad skill base of players who can attack every hitting category with those top three picks.

To add, this year I feel like you need to attack shortstop and outfield early. This start gives us two of the projected top 10-12 outfielders and arguably the second-best shortstop. With health on their side, this also allows me an opportunity to take some risks later on upside players or those coming off injury.

Some More Draft Strategies and Tips

The outfield ranks thin quickly

In many leagues, you may need to fill five outfield slots. In a 12-team league, that would be 60 outfielders deep. In a 15-team league, that is 75 outfielders deep. In some leagues, you might only need to start three outfielders. Know your context and rules.

In deeper leagues, you want to avoid platoon bats as much as possible and make sure you exhaust your ability to find a volume of at-bats. You are looking for a mix of proven performers and also for upside. I am fine with boring veterans who are productive (think Teoscar Hernandez), but also look to mix in young outfielders with upside (think Jakob Marsee).

You don't want to get caught in a situation where you wait too long and do not get at least 500 at-bats from every outfield slot.

Shortstop features deep options this year

Many pundits have written or discussed that shortsop feels deep this year. A dozen shortstops go within the first 100 picks over the last two weeks. I feel like you need one of them, and I would also argue that you need to get your middle infielder from the shortstop ranks as well. The second base pool is deep, and you can get a decent player after pick 200 in many drafts.

If I come away with Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson as my starting shortstop and middle infielder, I would be happy.

Think more deeply about what you need from each draft slot

When deciding on hitters in subsequent rounds, always look for guys who could chip in with 10-15 steals. Never stop adding steals if you can help it. There are plenty of later players who will chip in with 8-10 steals after you have already gathered some in the first few rounds. Look at players like Jordan Beck, Xander Bogaerts, Chase Meidroth, etc. None have "sexy" profiles, but may chip in with double-digit home runs and stolen bases with decent batting average floors.

If it's a league you have historically played in, know where your league mates value and draft pitching

I think going hitters in the first three rounds is the way to go, but if you know your league mates, check out where they take starting pitching.

If a run starts there, you may need to alter your strategy a bit. In higher-stakes leagues, know that mock drafts will not prepare you for the early run on starting pitchers and closers. This year, pitching seems to be valued later in drafts and in pockets. I am fine shopping lower; for example, in a recent mock, I pivoted and drafted Logan Gilbert and Logan Webb in the third and fourth rounds when I was not crazy about the hitter options there.

Subsequently, I went back to hitters for three of my next four picks: Jarren Duran, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Matt Chapman, with Mason Miller thrown in as a closer. Sometimes you have to adapt. Again, I plan to try and "Frankenstein" both corner infield positions. For example, I could pair Chapman with Caleb Durbin and pair Pasquantino with Jake Burger.

Populating a strong queue is the best thing you can do for yourself in a fast-moving snake draft

You might have a minute to make a decision, or four hours. Either way, always have six to eight possibilities that you can pivot to quickly. The chances are high that you will get sniped on a player you want, and most likely, several times. Always have alternatives, and always be ready to pivot and take what the draft brings you. A run on a certain position could open up a buying opportunity elsewhere for you.

Think of players in broader "tiers."

Many analysts will suggest, in podcasts and articles, that you "go get your guy." Do that unless your guy is Amed Rosario. Rosario is a fine player in real life, but he will not help your fantasy team. Be mindful of your biases and avoid letting them color your perceptions of players.

Do you have a recency bias? Do you tend to take too many risks on the shiny new toy? Do you draft only boring, league-average veterans with limited upside? Know your tendencies and develop strategies to counter them.

Quick example: I know that I tend not to look at batting average carefully. So in 2026, I know I need to balance my batting average and avoid landmines. I tend to look for players who get double-digit home runs and steals, which is not a bad strategy. But it can be a bad one if that guy hits .210 and sinks your team's batting average.

If you think more of players as commodities, in which you look for shared attributes that could be found in multiple players, you will have a richer and more compelling draft strategy. Put guys in tiers, and it can help you in recognizing "I just need one of these three to four guys."

Analyze quickly (and on the fly) what you need so that you don't fall behind

Be mindful of position scarcity as you meander through your draft. Be aware that you might need to select a guy sooner than ADP if you want them. ADP is a fine guide, but don't be married to it. As said earlier, get your guys.

Most importantly, enjoy the best time of year for fantasy baseball players, and enjoy the time making your fake teams with friends and family while hopefully eating some bad snacks, too. Have fun! Everything in life is so serious these days; take the time to enjoy yourselves.

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