Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Everything You Need to Know About Brandon Nimmo


You must be a fan of cliffhangers if you’ve been following New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo. After an offseason of trade talk, fantasy owners breathed a sigh of relief when it was Wilson Ramos announced as the team's newest cash signing, rather than the potential Nimmo - J.T. Realmuto deal proposed between the Mets and the Marlins earlier this month.

For some, expectations on Nimmo remain tepid, while others recognize the 25-year-old for what he truly was last year: a blossoming MVP candidate. Sounds absurd, but not when you peek at the numbers. Last year Nimmo finished second in the National League in wRC+ behind only Christian Yelich, as well as second in OBP (.404) and fourth in wOBA (.385). With eight triples to his name (fourth-most in the National League) and a mighty high walk rate, an uptick in homers might be enough to put Nimmo in the conversation in 2019.

While Mets fans ponder what could have been, we now turn our attention to what could be. With regular playing time and a spot in the starting lineup guaranteed this season, it’s safe to say you won’t be finding Nimmo on waivers midway through the year. Instead, Nimmo presents as a serious sleeper pick this season that, for the most part, continues to fly under the radar. Here’s a look at what you need to know:

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

The Upside

We’ve already touched on Nimmo’s high walk rate, but with the future of Yoenis Cespedes up in the air due to injury, you can lock Nimmo in for a spot as the Mets’ starting center fielder on Opening Day. That leaves New York with Michael Conforto, Nimmo, and Juan Lagares as their starting three, which doesn’t sound half-bad considering Cespedes could return by the All-Star break.

Aside from more at-bats and regular playing time, however, the biggest thing to love is his plate vision.

Drafted with the 13th overall pick in the 2011 draft, former Baseball Prospectus writer Jason Parks had this to say after scouting Nimmo back in 2014.

“Nimmo is still figuring out what kind of player he is going to be. He's built like a power hitter but approaches his at-bats like a table-setter, and his game fits that mold. While none of his traditional tools stand out, he does have one premium ability—plate discipline. He refuses to expand the strike zone, even when he has an easy run-producing opportunity. He can be an above-average hitter, but the hit tool will play up because of the plate discipline. He could be a plus on-base player. His defensive profile is still a question, but if he gets on base and provides plus defense in an outfield corner, he could start on a first-division team.”

It’s a dead-on analysis, especially regarding Nimmo’s on-base skills. Nimmo sees the ball from a mile away, and while there’s no doubt his bat speed and uppercut style swinging motion hurt his chances at more home runs, Nimmo’s average exit velocity remains encouraging. Among hitters with at least 150 batted ball events, Nimmo ranked 95th last season with an average exit velocity of 89.6 MPH. That doesn’t sound great, but to put it in perspective, he finished one spot below Cubs shortstop Javier Baez, who finished runner-up in NL MVP voting with 34 HR and 111 RBI. It’s highly doubtful we ever see Nimmo reach those kinds of numbers, but a home run total in the mid-20s is certainly plausible.

 

The Comparison

Choosing a player to compare Nimmo to wasn’t easy. His 17 HR and 15% walk rate in 2018 lines up nicely with the likes of Shin-Shoo Choo or Ben Zobrist in their prime, but with nine steals to his name, it’s hard to see Nimmo ever becoming a 20/20 type player. The best comparison might be Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder, Steven Souza Jr. The 29-year-old veteran once held similar walk totals to Nimmo (13.6% walk rate in 2017), but he steals hardly ever and strikes out a helluva lot.

If there’s one area of Nimmo’s game that will hinder his progress towards becoming an elite five-tool hitter though, its strikeouts. In the 140 games he played in with the Mets last year, Nimmo struck out an equal number of times, leaving him with the 12th-highest strikeout rate in the league.

Despite having only half as many plate appearances as Nimmo, Souza finished with a 26.2% strikeout rate last season. If we’re talking power, despite Souza’s 30 HR season in 2017, Nimmo looks likely to flirt with the 20 HR mark, just like Souza, throughout the course of his career.

Last but not least, the biggest similarity between the two has to be contact. Both hitters work with an extremely small strike zone and rarely swing at pitches thrown outside of it. A patient approach at the plate makes Nimmo, like Souza, a line drive hitter (21.6% last year), but the fact Nimmo's hard-hit rate continues to skyrocket is a promising sign.

Equally as encouraging are Nimmo's contact numbers. Souza made contact with close to 75% of the pitches he saw last year, an almost identical number to Nimmo, made all the more impressive considering the disparity between their plate appearances. All of these tools have also helped Nimmo draw a large bag of walks, most of which came against righties. He drew 64 against right-handed pitchers compared to the 16 he drew against southpaws last season, and although the stolen base numbers could plummet as Nimmo fills out more physically, he remains one of the most well-disciplined hitters in the Mets' lineup.

 

The Projection

Nimmo's current ADP, according to NFBC, is 167.51, placing him somewhere in the ballpark of Round 14. That's good value in deeper leagues considering Nimmo is projected to fall alongside other outfielders like Andrew McCutchen and Nomar Mazara, but his upside is far and away much higher than those two. He should be targeted around the 12th round instead and may not even last that long as Spring Training draws nearer and draft values adjust.

Say what you will about Sandy Alderson, but his first ever draft pick as former Mets GM could turn out to be a resounding success. And to think, the Mets nearly lost Nimmo in the trade that sent Jay Bruce to New York in 2016. Now, they have a reliable leadoff hitter controlled through 2022 that should turn out to be one of the top sleeper stashes entering next season.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Josh Gordon has officially been ruled out for Week 7. Todd Gurley was not on the final injury report and is expected to play. David Johnson (ankle)... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 7

In Week 6, Julio Jones didn't score, but he came through with a decent fantasy day, going over 100-yards receiving. Brandin Cooks brutal Week 6 showing was a little bit of a surprise given his 2018 track record against the 49ers, but the Rams offensive line was overwhelmed which led to a rough day for... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 7

Welcome to our Week 7 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Week 7 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Even if this doesn’t turn out to be great MNF game, at least it's a divisional game with some importance. This is what Jets fans need to tell themselves heading into their second Monday Night Football game of the season. With the New England Patriots coming to town off their annual semi-bye in which they... Read More


The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 7

Welcome to Week 7, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based off my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


Fantasy Football Rookies to Watch - Darius Slayton, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Oliver

Week 7 is here RotoBallers, which means we're smack dab in the middle of the regular fantasy season! In case you are new to this column, each week we'll highlight a few first-year players who are worth keeping your eye on. Not all of the players listed below are must-starts, but all of them are... Read More


Fleaflicker's Most Added and Dropped: Week 7

Every year and in every sport, a few teams march effortlessly towards the ultimate prize as if it's been preordained. When seemingly invincible teams like these are beaten, it's not always by the quality of their opponent but instead by their own psychological mindset. They look past a lesser opponent and fall victim to the... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 7 Josh Gordon has officially been ruled out for Week 7. Todd Gurley was not on the final injury... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Pass Rush vs QB Matchups to Watch - Week 7

It's Week 7 and the injuries just keep piling up. Heading into this week, six different teams will be starting quarterbacks that were not their opening-day starters, and that doesn't take into account teams like the Indianapolis Colts or Kansas City Chiefs, who just lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) for at least three weeks. To... Read More


Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 7

In Week 6, we once again saw some great football, starting with the New England Patriots continuing their undefeated start to the season and ending with one of the most controversial games of the week as the Green Bay Packers overcame the Detroit Lions. The London games continued with Jameis Winston struggling once again, this... Read More


Is Stefon Diggs Really Back?

Weeks 1-5: 4.6 targets, 3.2 receptions, 50.6 yards per game, one touchdown. Week 6: 11 targets, eight receptions, 167 yards, three touchdowns. All of these numbers show a marked improvement on the season averages of Stefon Diggs in Minnesota. But, do they tell the whole story? Do they really signify that Diggs should be considered... Read More


Inside the Tent - Week 7 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More


Week 7 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 7 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 7 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More


Week 7 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that bye weeks are in full swing; streaming becomes a more viable and almost necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions throughout the season could easily be the difference in winning a championship. Each week, I... Read More