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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 14 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
We only have two weeks left of ESPN College Pick Em, and they have finally listened to popular demand after many years. Both Friday and Saturday games will be included during Rivalry Week and Conference Championship Week. It's going to make these last two weeks infinitely more interesting. That means you have to have some of these locked in by Friday.
chrismiller19 pulled off a perfect week last week. ESPNFAN9409337165 picked up 52 points last week. ChadJackson85 and Littlemy are the only other entries to break 45 points. We now have some separation at the top with chrismiller19 leading Ilene 494 to 490. Cliff316 is only one point behind the top two. Four more entries are over 480 points.
There is some separation after that. ChadJackson85 and Momirka13 are the only entries in the 470-point range. Last week, we had 30 entries within 40 points of first place. We are down to 23 this week. Only 15 entries are within 30 points of first place. Your winners will likely come from that pack of 15 entries.
College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
This week is tough. The road team is favored in nine out of the 10 games, and the one in which the home team is favored is ranked lower. Good luck out there, RotoBallers!
(1) Western Kentucky over Jacksonville State
The winner of this game goes to the Conference USA Championship Game. This game could be played again next week if Kennesaw State loses to Liberty. No one wants that.
FPI has this as a toss-up (51.8% Jacksonville State). Vegas has the Hilltoppers favored. You know that I'm always going to side with Vegas over ESPN's metrics, even though they are one of the best predictive models in-season.
(2) Tennessee over Vanderbilt
Josh Heupel has faced Clark Lea’s Vanderbilt Commodores 4 times. The Vols have scored 45, 58, 48, & 36 points. They have yet to be held under 400 yards of total offense & have rushed for 200+ yards in 3 out of the 4 matchups.
Vanderbilts defense currently ranks 105th in STOP…
— Jordan Moore (@jordanmoore_21) November 25, 2025
Vanderbilt hasn't beaten Tennessee since 2018. They have lost those six games by an average of 26.6 points. Diego Pavia is playing out of his mind right now, and I expect this game to be close, but it's hard to see Vandy winning at Neyland.
(3) Texas A&M over Texas
Texas A&M SEC schedule
1-7 Auburn
1-6 Mississippi State
2-6 Florida
0-7 Arkansas
3-4 LSU
3-4 Missouri
1-7 South Carolina— Thomas Dixon (@DixxRT94) November 25, 2025
The fact that the Aggies haven't played any of the seven other ranked SEC teams in the CFP rankings is exactly what is wrong with college football. It's so absurdly stupid. It's also hard to blame the Aggies.
Looking at the schedule before the season, Auburn, Florida, LSU, and South Carolina all looked like tough outs. Missouri looked like a wild card. This looked like a legit conference schedule. The fact that all five teams went belly-up, three of them to the point where they fired the coach, isn't A&M's fault.
It does highlight why I have very little confidence in this. Yes, the Aggies beat Notre Dame, but it was on a botched extra point. The Aggies have given up points by the bushel, and Arch Manning is starting to live up to the hype...and it's at DKR. This is a very losable game for the Aggies. I may flip this one.
(4) Mississippi over Mississippi State
I trust nothing about this game. There is way too much static around it. Lane Kiffin channeling his inner LeBron James is the worst idea he's ever had, no matter what his decision is. The players undoubtedly already know what his decision is, and they will play accordingly.
They're either going to win one for Lane on his way out (and hope he takes them with), or they're going to be ecstatic that he's staying. The more likely option is that the team plays hard for Trinidad Chambliss, no matter what. That still equates to an Ole Miss win.
(5) Alabama over Auburn
I hate having the Iron Bowl this high. This feels like one of those games that Auburn could win. The offense had a purpose against Vandy. Deuce Knight nuked Mercer, but Auburn is saying that they won't play him.
I wouldn't put much stock in that. Ashton Daniels gets to use this as his audition for QB1 in 2026. There is so much uncertainty for Auburn right now that it just might work out in their favor.
(6) Arizona State over Arizona
I've openly doubted Arizona State since the injuries to Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. Tyson is expected to play in the Territorial Cup on Friday. That changes things for me.
Arizona has won four straight, but Jeff Sims is finally showing the promise that he never did at Nebraska or Georgia Tech. If you put Tyson with Sims right now, Arizona State is a very different team.
(7) Oregon over Washington
I'm nervous about this one. Even though FPI is heavy on Oregon (75.1%), the Vegas line has dropped under a touchdown. We just saw the CFP inexplicably move Oregon over Mississippi. Why? Just in case Oregon loses this game.
The CFP cannot function with only two Big Ten teams in. If Oregon loses this game, being ranked behind Ole Miss, there is a good chance they will miss the playoffs. This was the CFP protecting the Big Ten cash cow because they're nervous about the outcome as well.
(8) Ohio State over Michigan
As expected, the line opened high (-10.5) and is dropping. Losing to Michigan has become a tradition for Ohio State, but I think that changes this year.
The Buckeyes won a championship last year, but wouldn't have even been in it under the old system. It's tainted a bit by the loss to Michigan. It feels like Ohio State has been building up to this game all season long. It feels a lot like Tennessee-Florida last week.
(9) Miami (FL) over Pittsburgh
Miami doesn't care about the ACC Championship Game. In all truth, they'd rather not play in it at all. This is a giant opportunity for Miami to show the CFP committee that they are better than Notre Dame since...you know...head-to-head isn't enough for the current pack of jackasses.
Notre Dame whipped up on Pitt pretty good. Miami needs to go in there and play a flawless game. They need to beat Pitt a lot worse than Notre Dame did. You can bet that the team knows what's at stake.
(10) San Diego State over New Mexico
I think it's great that ESPN is putting games like this on here. I also think it's great that FPI and Vegas think this will be a close game. New Mexico has won five in a row since the loss to Boise State. San Diego State was running through the Mountain West until a loss at Hawaii.
Both San Diego State losses have come on the road, so I'm a bit nervous about this. That said, New Mexico hasn't faced a defense like this since Michigan in the opener.
