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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 28 of the 2021/22 season, starting on 03/05/2022. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games
It was nice to get back to winning ways last weekend with a 118.5% ROI. Southampton kicked things off on Friday with a 2-0 win against Norwich City (a scoreline we correctly predicted). Then Saturday saw us bag another nice winner with underdogs Newcastle United beating Brentford. Wolves let us down on Sunday after changing over half their team, something which would have put us off backing them if we knew in advance. C'est la vie, profit is profit and hopefully, that carries over to this weekend.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 101-164-13 (-18.34 units & 92.78% ROI)
- Match results: 31-37
Saturday, March 05th, 2022
Southampton (+218) at Aston Villa (+137) - 10:00 am ET
Southampton comes into this game with a five-match unbeaten run and just one loss in their last ten league games. They've scored in each of their last ten EPL games (20 goals in total) and have back-to-back clean sheets following last Friday's 2-0 win against Norwich City. They also progressed to the FA Cup quarter-final with a 3-1 win against West Ham United on Wednesday.
Southampton's away record this season (13 points in 13 games) isn't great and they've conceded 27 goals on the road (third-most). They're without a clean sheet in their last eight away league games, conceding 19. Only once have they conceded fewer than two in that run, which was last time out at Manchester United (1-1 draw).
Aston Villa's home games have been significantly more entertaining than their away games. There have been 40 goals in their 12 home games (20 for and 20 against), with 30 coming in their 13 away games (13 for and 17 against). Villa haven't kept a clean sheet in their last six home games, conceding 12 in that run so it's fair to expect goals on Saturday.
This game also lends itself to some interesting shorter odds prop bets I really like so here are the ones I'm favoring:
Aston Villa have 12 second-half goals in their 12 home EPL games, while Southampton have conceded 16 second-half goals in their 13 away games. I'm backing the home team to find the net in the second half.
Armando Broja has six goals in 22 EPL games (14 starts). He scored in midweek and has been taking plenty of shots recently. Broja has had 15 shots in his last four league games, with six being on target and has one goal. He's had an effort at goal in each of his last ten league games and at least two efforts in his last five games. I expect that run to continue.
Southampton have taken 79 (of 155 total) corners in their away games and conceded 68 (of 131 total) corners. the average number of corners in Southampton away games is 11.3. Aston Villa have taken 53 (of 126 total) corners and conceded 72 (of 152 total) corners in their home games. Their home game average is 10.4 corners per game.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 2 Southampton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Draw (+251) 1 unit
- Draw no bet - Southampton (+126) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-155) 1.5 units
- To score in the 2nd half - Aston Villa (-170) 1.5 units
- Player to have 2+ shots - Armando Broja (-188) 1.5 units
- Total corners - Over 10.5 (-117) 1 unit
- Corners handicap - Southampton -0.5 (+104) 1 unit
Brentford (+159) at Norwich City (+211) - 10:00 am ET
Brentford's slide down the table continued last week with a 2-0 defeat against Newcastle United, a game made all the more difficult with an early dismissal. Their last eight league games have seen them take just one point and a defeat here will see them in deep relegation trouble.
Norwich City's form hasn't been much better with three straight league defeats leading into this game and off the back of an FA Cup exit in midweek. But they do have a good record against Brentford, beating them 2-1 earlier this season and beating them last season (as well as a draw) during the teams' promotion campaigns.
Norwich's first-half home record hasn't been too bad and they've trailed at the break only four times in 13 home games. Brentford have only led twice in their 13 away games so it's likely the home side go in at half-time at least level.
Unsurprisingly, these are two of the lowest corner-taking teams, with Brentford's 101 corners ranking 19th and Norwich's 117 ranking 14th. Their encounter earlier this season saw just eight total corners (despite there being three goals) and a low corner count seems likely again here.
We're also going to play Brentford having the most cards. Norwich have only had five yellow cards in their last five games (only more than one received in one game). Brentford haven't been penalized too much but showed a darker side last weekend, receiving three yellows and a straight red card. If they go behind, the frustration of this winless run might come to the fore.
Score prediction: Norwich City 2 - 1 Brentford
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Norwich City (+211) 1 unit
- Draw no bet 1st half - Norwich City (-104) 1 unit
- Total corners - Under 10 (-100) 1 unit
- Team most cards - Brentford (+130) 1 unit
Brighton (+171) at Newcastle United (+187) - 10:00 am ET
Newcastle will look to maintain their unbeaten run and have been surprisingly set as underdogs at home to a Brighton team with three straight league defeats to their name.
Newcastle games haven't been the most exciting in terms of goals recently. During their seven-game unbeaten run, they've scored ten, with only two occasions seeing them score more than once. And one of those occasions was last weekend against Brentford's ten-men.
They've established a solid defense with just four goals conceded during the unbeaten spell and they've kept three clean sheets. The loss of Kieran Trippier and Allan Saint-Maximin has contributed to their offense struggles but they keep finding a way to goal and as long as their defensive resoluteness continues, they'll avoid relegation.
Brighton have found goals hard to come by all season. They're tied tied-fourth fewest goals scored this season with 25 and they've not scored in their last three league games. This should be a low-scoring affair and it's hard to see Brighton scoring enough to win games right now.
Brighton's away record in the second-half of games is considerably better than their first-half performances. Whilst they've conceded just seven goals in the first halves, they've scored only four goals. Newcastle have only gone into the half-time break trailing at home twice this season so we'll take a small play on the home side leading at the break.
We'll also repeat one of last week's prop bets by backing Jonjo Shelvey to have a shot on target. As stated last week, he's the primary free-kick taker for Newcastle with Trippier sidelined and he had a shot from a free-kick on target in the opening moments last week. He finished up having three shots, two being on target.
We'll end things with a bet on the number of cards. Referee Martin Atkinson hasn't been the most officious with just 36 yellow cards shown in 16 games this season. But Newcastle's 62 yellow cards this season is the second-most while Brighton's 50 ranks sixth-most.
There were seven yellow cards and one red card when these two met earlier this season. There have also been three or more cards in each of Newcastle's last seven league games and a total of 18 yellow cards in Brighton's last three league games (nine last week against Aston Villa).
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 0 Brighton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Newcastle United (+187) 1 unit
- Player shots on target - Jonjo Shelvey 1+ (+110) 1.5 units
- Half-time correct score - Newcastle United 1 - 0 Brighton (+380) 0.5 units
- Total cards - Over 3.5 (-110) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
