Early 2021 Sleepers and Draft Targets - Tight End

March 28, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes tight ends (TE) sleepers who should be targeted in early fantasy football drafts heading into the 2021 NFL season.

It feels foolish writing this considering how the tight end position has been in major upheaval early in free agency. Through the first 48 hours of the legal tampering period, we saw Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry both end up with the New England Patriots along with Rob Gronkowski returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For most teams though, their tight end for next season remains locked in which allows us to start looking ahead. 

Every year, there is a tight end that slips in drafts and ends up being one of the best options, which can make a huge difference at a position that lacks the depth of a position such as wide receiver. In 2020, Robert Tonyan of the Green Bay Packers and Logan Thomas of the Washington Football Team tied for TE3 in PPR despite ADPs after the 13th round. In 2019, Darren Waller of the Las Vegas Raiders had an ADP of 13.12 and finished as TE3 in that season. In 2018, Eric Ebron, then with the Indianapolis Colts, was taken with an identical ADP of 13.12, and he finished as TE4. It’s really never too late to find a tight end that can secure that position for you.

In 2021, that’s going to be no different. There is inevitably going to be a tight end or two that vaults their way into the TE1 category despite having an ADP well below that of the other top names at the position. While Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs may get picked in the first round, these guys are going to be one of your last few picks ahead of your kickers and defenses if you still play with those positions. Today, we’re going to give you some of those sleepers and other draft targets you should be going after.

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers

As of now, Ebron is still being drafted too low. He was TE14 overall last season, and his market share has only gotten better this offseason. Running back James Conner is likely heading elsewhere due to the cap issues the Steelers are dealing with. Throw in the fact that tight end Vance McDonald rode off into the sunset known as retirement and there are currently scheduled to be 63 targets up for grabs next season. The majority of those will also be where Ebron does his work with those two players having a combined yards per target average of 5.0, which is well below Ebron’s 6.1.

There has been just one season in Ebron’s seven-year career that he started at least 10 games in a season. However, he’s played at least 11 games in all seven of those while playing 13 or more in six of the seven. The knock on Ebron is that he’s constantly injured or off the field. Meanwhile, he’s played in 87.5 percent of the games since he’s entered the NFL. With no other options to go in front of him, it seems clear that Ebron is finally going to be the full starter this year. 

Despite the positives Ebron has going in his favor, he’s still being drafted outside the top-20 at the position. If you take his per season averages of 48 receptions, 536 yards, and five touchdowns, he would have scored 132 points in PPR which would have been good enough for TE17 last year. This doesn’t factor in the two seasons where Ebron scored just one touchdown in each season. In the 12 games he saw at least five targets in 2020, he averaged 11.51 PPR points per game, which was the fifth-best mark on the year. If you’re looking for a cheap tight end with upside on a weekly basis, you could do much worse than Ebron in the 14th round.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

This call is almost entirely based on the idea that Jimmy Graham is going to be cut. Cutting Graham would free up $7 million in cap space for a Chicago team that needs all the money they can get their hands on due to hefty cap hits for Allen Robinson, Robert Quinn, and Khalil Mack. The team has moved on from Kyle Fuller, but they still need to free up more money. Kmet scored just 62 points in PPR last season as the secondary option to Graham. Assuming he absorbs 75 percent of Graham’s fantasy production from last year along with his own production, he would have entered the TE1 category.

In the 2020 draft, the Bears made just two picks before the fifth round. They had 10 tight ends on their depth chart entering the draft, and they still made drafting Kmet a priority by taking him with the 43rd overall pick before taking cornerback Jaylon Johnson seven picks later. Kmet is clearly the player they want to be the future of the position, so it makes sense that they would try to make the local kid, who’s from Evanston, Illinois and played college ball at Notre Dame, prosper in Year 2 at the professional level. 

In his lone season as the main tight end in college, Kmet was second on the team behind Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Chase Claypool in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. With the probability that Graham could not return to the team along with the possibility that wide receiver Allen Robinson is going to force a trade after being franchise-tagged again, Kmet could be in line for a big boost in production in Year 2. If you’re drafting right now, you’re going to be able to get him around the 14th round along with the aforementioned Ebron. 

Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers

Last year, in 15 games, now Los Angeles Chargers tight end Jared Cook totaled 127.4 points for an average of 8.5 PPR points per game and TE18 on the year. However, that tale doesn’t tell the full story. In the 11 games he played with Drew Brees as his quarterback, he averaged 9.39 per game which was a nearly three-point bump over the four games he played with Taysom Hill under center. His 16-game pace with Brees would have put him at 150.24 points and TE8 just ahead of Rob Gronkowski of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Cook isn’t the spring chicken he once was, as he’s heading into his age-34 season, but he does head to a very advantageous situation. Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert averaged 39.6 passing attempts per game last year, and with a defense that is set to lose a couple of starters in free agency, they figure to be just as pass-happy in Year 2 with Herbert under center. With Hunter Henry over in New England, there are 913 snaps and 93 targets up for grabs in LA.

Cook has remained one of the more consistent fantasy options at the tight end position over the last few years. He’s rarely going to finish at the top of the position on a weekly basis, but he’ll normally get some points on the board for you. The Chargers brought in former Saints quarterback coach Joe Lombardi as their offensive coordinator. He’s seen Cook for the last two years, and Cook said Herbert was one of the main reasons he came to the Chargers. With an ADP in the 13th round, Cook gives you an option with a safe floor and some upside if Herbert takes another leap in Year 2.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

To be clear, I'm not labeling Kelce a sleeper but rather a high-priority draft target. This section isn’t going to be very long but it still needs to be said. If you play in more than one PPR redraft league, you need to make a point to target Kelce in at least one of those leagues. He was on 17 percent of ESPN fantasy football championship finalist rosters which was third among tight ends behind Thomas and Waller. The difference between Kelce and Waller in total points was the same as the difference between TE3 and TE14. Among wide receivers, Kelce would have been WR4. He outscored all but three running backs, and he was seventh among all non-quarterback players. With quarterback Patrick Mahomes still under center, Kelce remains the premier option at tight end, and you should make an effort to target him early on.

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