Dynasty Team Analysis- Dallas Cowboys

We will be reviewing all 32 teams at Rotoballer in our Dynasty Team outlook series. Leading up to the draft, we will break down every team as they currently stand and will review them again after free agency and the draft have concluded. Which players should you buy and which players should you sell? Who will be sleepers this season and who will be busts? We will cover all the positions and all the angles for you.

It’s America’s Team for a reason. The Dallas Cowboys are one of the most popular and most recognized team in all of football. They have had more star power than any other team in NFL history and have the second-most Super Bowl wins in NFL history as well. However, the Cowboys haven’t brought a championship back to Dallas since 1995--a drought that is unacceptable to their fans and more importantly, their owner.

The good news is that the Cowboys have built an exciting young team once again and could be poised for more runs in the future. After going 13-3 and winning the NFC East in 2016, they took a step back last season while dealing with a key suspension, an offense that sputtered at times and a defense that couldn’t always keep opponents out of the end zone. 2018 will not be an easier. The defending Super Bowl Champions will be a tough opponent to work through as the Philadelphia Eagles will be favorites to win the division. The New York Giants should be better this year as well if everyone is healthy and the Washington Redskins won’t be walked over. If the Cowboys can regain their run first, control the game offense, they should have a shot at the playoffs once again. If not? It could be another long season.

Dallas Cowboys Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 9-7 (2^nd, NFC East)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Dak Prescott- 260.8 (QB10)
RB: Ezekiel Elliott- 203.2 (RB12)
WR: Dez Bryant- 186.5 (WR24)
TE: Jason Witten- 147.0 (TE9)
IDP: Demarcus Lawrence- 201.2 (DE3)

Quarterback

Which Dak Prescott do owners think they will get in 2018? Will they get the breakout star from 2016 that finished as the QB6, or will they get the under performing QB from 2017 that seems to be reliant on Ezekiel Elliott to be truly successful. Honestly, he’s probably somewhere in between.

Prescott only had one less passing touchdown in 2017 than he did in 2016, threw for 350 less yards, ran for the same amount of touchdowns and actually had more rushing yards. So, his biggest downfall was a large increase in interceptions. Prescott came out of nowhere his rookie season, but was greatly helped by the balanced attack with Ezekiel Elliott. If the Cowboys can keep the same type of game plan and let Prescott and the offense dictate the game flow, he is set up for success. If the Cowboys are not able to control the game and their defense can’t keep the score close, then the offense will become one dimensional setting Prescott up for more failure.

Honestly, the only reason Prescott seemed to have a down season was because of the ridiculous expectations we placed on him after his rookie season. With Elliott back from suspension and ready to play a full season, I expect Prescott to head back into the top 10. More importantly though, the addition of a couple wide receivers could be the biggest difference.

Running Back

2017 was a brutal season for owners of Elliott. He was going to be suspended, then wasn’t. Then he was suspended but appealed. Anyway, you know the whole story and, if you are a current owner, your frustrations were shared by many. Hopefully if you own him in dynasty leagues, you were able to survive the season without trading him. In my dynasty rankings, Elliott is firmly cemented as my second overall player.

It’s funny, because I get a general feeling that Zeke's value is currently down. Or maybe that’s just what interested owners want you to think. I’ve heard several arguments this season ranging from, "He cannot be trusted due to his off-field history," all the way down to the fact that he only average 4.1 yards per carry in 2017 after averaging 5.1 in his rookie season.

His drop in yards per carry may look significant as he was only 24^th among qualified running backs in 2017 but he still finished higher than several other running backs who have high value heading into the 2018 season. Le’Veon Bell (4.0), Carlos Hyde (3.9), Melvin Gordon (3.9), Leonard Fournette (3.8) and Christian McCaffrey (3.7). Just like his QB counterpart, Elliott set our standards so high after a huge rookie season that anything less would bring disappointment. I know what Elliott will bring to the table this season, but his backup will be an intriguing player to keep an eye on.

Rod Smith was an interesting waiver pickup last year. With Elliott sitting on the brink of suspension, owners were left trying to decide whether Darren McFadden or Alfred Morris would assume lead back duties if that happened. Other owners decided to take a different approach and picked up Smith hoping he would offer some PPR upside.

Smith was able to vulture some goal line TDs in the later portion of the season and while I don’t think he offers tremendous value for fantasy owners in 2018, he is a must-stash for Elliott owners. The Cowboys haven’t re-signed Morris and they have too many positions to upgrade to spend a high pick on a running back in the draft. This tells us the Cowboys are confident in Elliott being the workhorse yet again and Smith will hold value as the backup, potentially in PPR leagues. This is a must-own backfield in 2018.

Wide Receiver

Dez Bryant is officially out in Dallas. Word broke this morning that Bryant would be cut and he officially becomes the hottest name on the market. Since this is a Cowboys piece though, and he is no longer a Cowboy, I wont spend much time on him. This is excellent news for others on offense though as those forced targets Prescott used to give to Bryant can be better used elsewhere now. Who will benefit most though if Bryant is cut?

I really want to say Allen Hurns, but let’s wait a minute on him. I see the Cowboys taking a WR in this draft and that is who will see the largest benefit from Bryant being cut. Dallas could actually be the perfect spot for a rookie receiver to land and actually get off to a good start. Opposing defenses will always concentrate on the run when playing the Cowboys, but then take a look at who will need eyes on them next. Hurns will be the WR1 for the Cowboys, then you have Cole Beasley and Ryan Switzer in the slot and Jason Witten at tight end. That could lead to some wide open looks for a rookie wide receiver playing on the outside. With the amount of QBs potentially going at the top of the first round along with the top defensive players as well, the Cowboys should have their pick of multiple receivers at 19. DJ Moore anyone?

I would love to see Moore fall to the Cowboys at 19 and end up playing in the star next season. I would immediately place him above Hurns and the rest of the receivers. Bryant couldn't finish better than a fringe WR3 with Prescott, but Moore will be better than Bryant. Bold prediction alert! Let me be clear, Moore would be better than Bryant would have been this year in Dallas. Moore is a better route runner and will be able to slip coverage better since he wouldn't be the main target. At least, not the main target to begin the season. I don't want to spend too much time on what if scenarios, but any receiver that goes to Dallas in the first round could see a lot of success. I just hope it's Moore.

The newest addition to the Dallas receiving corps is Allen Hurns. This was an extremely underrated signing. Most owners forget that Hurns had a 1,000-yard season two years ago to go along with 10 touchdowns. Injuries the last two seasons have kept him from progressing and honestly, Blake Bortles probably had a little bit to do with it as well. Even after dealing with injuries in 2017, Hurns was able to post his highest catch rate since entering the league. He’s only going to be 27 this season and won’t have much competition without Bryant to start. If you are a Terrence Williams truther that thinks he will play more than Hurns, I need you to stop those crazy thoughts. Williams won’t be taking anything from Hurns.

You can call me a little crazy if you would like, but the slot position may be my favorite on the Cowboys, outside of running back. I was hoping for a follow-up performance from Beasley to his breakout 2016 season when he hauled in 75 catches for 833 yards, but boy was I wrong. Beasley didn’t even muster 400 yards last season and only caught 39 balls. You can’t blame it on injury either because he appeared in 15 games. Bryant being healthy and on the field all season took away some of those targets and receptions, but it’s more like 2017 was an outlier than what we should expect.

Now, Beasley will need to be even more careful because Switzer figures to see a larger role this season. He has looked dynamic returning punts so far and we need to see more of that on offense. With Bryant gone, I foresee some plays designed to have Beasley and Switzer both on the field at the same time. The Cowboys will absolutely take a WR in the draft, but to ease that learning curve, running sets with Beasley and Switzer could really help the offense.  The Cowboys have a new wide receiver coach this year so everyone is starting with a clean slate. When a new coach comes in, it’s typical to see talent win out. If that holds true, Switzer will see the field more than Beasley this year.

Tight End

One of the best tight ends of our generation will be done soon. Jason Witten may be heading into his final year in the NFL. There was talk this off-season that NBC wanted to hire him as an analyst for Sunday Night Football, but he wanted to give it another shot in hopes of winning a ring.

Witten is a safe bet at TE. He is not a guy that will produce many top weeks, but he will do just enough. The biggest issue I had with Witten last year was his inconsistency. He had five games in which he had less than 10 yards receiving and he only had two games all year with 60 or more receiving yards. If you need depth at TE, Witten is a decent option since has always on the field. He hasn’t missed a game since 2006. Don’t add him banking at high TE1 numbers. He’s going to be a low TE1 for me, just because it really doesn’t take much to be a TE1 these days.

The Cowboys may be adding a TE during the draft, but I am excited to see if Rico Gathers can become a contributor. The former Baylor basketball star decided to pursue football instead. He has yet to appear in a game, but that could change this year. He is extremely athletic and will be a big target for Prescott. More than likely Gathers will profile as your basic NFL tight end that can block and run decent routes, but as he continues to grow as a football player, he could become much more.

If he is able to block well, then he could spell Witten more often since the Cowboys will be running the ball a ton this season. The more Gathers is on the field, the more trust he earns from the coaching staff. The more trust he earns now leads to a bigger role in 2019. I would go running to grab Gathers as a TE for your starting lineup this season. If you have extra space, grab him and see what happens. He could be a steal in a couple years.

IDP

In fantasy football, you want defensive linemen that do one thing really well, and that’s rack up sacks. Anything else they offer is only a bonus. Demarcus Lawrence finally put together the season Dallas had been hoping for. After missing chunks of his first couple of seasons, Lawrence finally found his way onto the field for all 16 games in 2017 and racked up 14.5 sacks.

Lawrence started the season hot by recording tackles in his first seven games. If you go back and watch tape of the Cowboys this season, you could see that Lawrence had a shot at 20 sacks on the season. He is such a high-energy, high-motor player that he would find himself running right by the quarterback. This guy will be one of the top defensive lineman taken in IDP leagues this season and rightfully so. If he can stay healthy and out of trouble, he will be one of the best lineman in the game for the next several years.

Off-Season Outlook

Dallas will have some work to do in order to keep up with the Eagles. Their biggest issues will be finding a WR in the draft and potentially a TE as well. They will also need to add a LB to offer depth behind Sean Lee after Anthony Hitchens left this off-season. There is so much upside on this team though, that you have to invest. If this offense can stay together all season, they should be one of the best in the game.

Even outside of the obvious contributors in Elliott and Prescott, you could find some great value in this team with Hurns and Beasley or Switzer. If the Cowboys take a WR in the first round, that is also a guy I want to buy into right away, especially if the player is a Moore-caliber addition. Expect great things from the Cowboys this season as a fantasy owner.

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