DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The RSM Classic With Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Russell Henley, Brendon Todd, Zac Blair and More Golf Advice (2023)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The RSM Classic

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The RSM Classic

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
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In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 2

 

Last Five Winners Of The RSM Classic

2022	Adam Svensson	-19
2021	Talor Gooch	-22
2020	Robert Streb	-19
2019	Tyler Ducan	-19
2018	Charles Howell III	-19

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022	-4
2021	-7
2020	-5
2019	-5
2018	-4

 

Sea Island Golf Club

7,005 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda

Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but did undergo some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. As I always note with a Fazio design, the main takeaway will be the extreme undulation that can be found throughout. However, this isn't your prototypical setup from a contextual standpoint that you always get from the now 78-year-old.

Fazio kept most of the links-style quirks from the original layout. We see that with easy-to-hit fairways that are a necessity to locate since the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the shortgrass. That total ranks as highly as any course on tour and likely accounts for the reduction in around-the-green performance since the width of the fairways will also average 7.2 yards wider than your standard setup.

All of that is rather basic from an expectation standpoint. Find a bunch of fairways and use that iron proximity from 100-175 yards (8.2% increase) to locate opportunities. That is a standard recipe for most of these shorter contests, but there are a few diverse and unique traits that we should talk about further before jumping into other factors.

One of the notable differences this week that we at least need to be aware of from a game theory perspective is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the secondary Plantation Course. That adds a more challenging wrinkle to handicap statistically since rotational events change what is being asked from the field between days.

In fairness, that is likely the one noticeable variation since there are at least some similarities in green size and grass type. Still, I generally focus on the main venue when it presents 75% of the rounds since it does more harm than good when the more critical days are at the main track. I am okay with adding extra emphasis on par-five scoring if you want to elaborate more on your data, but I decided against it since we are talking about only two extra chances.

Wind can play a factor, which is one of the reasons I graded it in my model. We do have an eye-popping nine par-fours that measure between 400-450 yards. I will call it 10 for my research since one is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers will be the 368-yard eighth hole and the 470-yard 18th. That is one of the reasons we see a consolidated emphasis on approach shots from 100-175 yards.

Add all that to the fact that 8.3% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond than what we are accustomed to on tour, and you get a model that does suggest a wonky variation of a pitch-and-putt contest because of the steady distribution of shorter anticipated yardages repeatedly given for the week.

It is one of those three-pronged approaches of needing to find the fairway, capitalizing as much as possible with your irons to create makeable looks and having the ability to hit your flat stick on a soft Bermuda surface that can be speedier than expected. If you do those three answers, you will have a chance to succeed at a venue there for the taking.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Sea Island	PGA Average
Driving Distance	276	283
Driving Accuracy	70%	61%
GIR Percentage	74%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	57%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.59	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted OTT + APP + Putt (30%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Short + Easy + Bermuda (20%)

 

Putting on Soft Greens/Fast Surface (10%)

Par 4 400-450 (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Total Driving (Geared Toward Accuracy) (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfer	Odds	Risk	Win
Russell Henley	24	0.3	7.2
Brendon Todd	55	0.13	7.15
Zac Blair	300	0.05	15

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Ownership will be the ultimate decider between this group. However, we have a situation where Ludvig Aberg is the safest golfer in this field and Cameron Young has the most upside if he manages to put the pieces together.

I am going to lean toward each of those two options over Brian Harman since the American has yet to perform in an event during the fall season. Both Aberg and Young are included in my player pool at this moment, and I don't think we need to spend much time talking about two of the best golfers in this field. Either route presents that high ceiling potential that we would want to see if a $10,000+ name. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I've been a big believer that Russell Henley has turned himself into a top-20 player on the PGA Tour. I pushed for his consideration on the USA Ryder Cup team because of his immaculate course fit, and the metrics have continued to skyrocket him up the board in most tournaments because of his ideal combination of accuracy and proximity.

My model pinpointed him as the top-ranked player in the field when combining Bermuda + accessible + short courses, even further shifting us in a direction where there is a solid argument to be made that his additional first-place rank for strokes gained total over the past 24 rounds makes him one of the two or three favorites on the board.

Henley will be where I likely get most aggressive in this section because of that profile, but we will see where ownership lands in other areas. Eric Cole and J.T. Poston would likely present two of the more intriguing spots I would like to dive into deeper. 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Matt Kuchar, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Billy Horschel and J.J. Spaun would be my top values in this range. We will dive deeper into each player later in the week. 

Todd is currently the option I have the most exposure to because of his first-place rank for weighted off-the-tee, approach play and putting. 

 

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

We can dive deeper into this entire group during my 'Final DraftKings' article.

Taylor Pendrith - ownership may end up running wild, but he is too cheap.

Harris English - A pronounced increase on similar green complexes.

Thomas Detry - Detry dropped too much in price after his missed-cut.

Davis Thompson - Course history is horrible. If he comes in popular, I likely will pivot. However, I do like the upside.

Doug Ghim - Boom-or-bust target at the right ownership.

Sam Ryder - Putting contest that gives us arguably the best putter in the field for cheap.

Dylan Wu - Wu is too cheap for the top-25 upside returns.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Zac Blair was one of the more intriguing 300/1 plays I have encountered in some time. The lack of safety could be on full display, but he was one of only 11 players to rank inside the top 27 for expected putting on these greens, expected strokes gained total and weighted scoring. Outside of Sam Ryder, every other player landed inside 60/1 on the slate. Perhaps there is a hidden potential there for Blair to shock the golf community.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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