DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Masters Tournament Golf Advice (2023)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Masters Tournament

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Masters Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 87 Players
Cut: Top 50 and Ties
Top 25 Entrants: 25

 

Last Five Winners Of The Masters

2022	Scottie Scheffler	-10
2021	Hideki Matsuyama	-10
2020	Dustin Johnson	-20
2019	Tiger Woods	-13
2018	Patrick Reed	-15

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022	5
2021	1
2019	4
2018	6
2017	7

 

Augusta National

7,510 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

Whether you are a casual golf fan or a die-hard that eats, sleeps and breathes the sport weekly, Augusta National doesn't need much of an introduction since it is the most iconic venue in the world. Not only is it the only major that takes place on the same track yearly, but the expectations have been pronounced when we dive into this venue from a statistical perspective.

Wide-open fairways that are nearly 20 yards extended in width on average will present this feel of a course that is a long driver's paradise. However, that particular skill will only take you so far when we look at the massive undulation and multiple-tiered perspective of the putting surfaces on all 18 holes.

That is one of the reasons the long-term data has generated a 6.5% enhancement when looking into the dispersion of scoring for strokes gained around the green. I don't want to make it sound as if it is a death sentence for success if you struggle with that portion of your game, although you better be elite in other areas if you want to get around a green complex that typically takes multiple showings to get accustomed to its unique layout.

That is one of the reasons no first-timer has won this tournament since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. It doesn't mean someone playing this early in their career can't find success. Still, I tend to eliminate any golfer from my outright pool who isn't making a minimum of their third appearance at the property. My model runs a 30% impact on course history (the highest you will get yearly from me), which stops any value from entering that sector of my board.

Overall, a sharp short game that can scramble and salvage scores with three-putt avoidance on these firey greens will be at a premium. Distance helps since we are discussing an open property extending over 7,400 yards, but that criteria set is marginally overvalued in a vacuum situation. I do think you need to be 40% of the field with that portion of your game, but it is not as if having massive length is the ultimate decider.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Augusta	PGA Average
Driving Distance	N/A	283
Driving Accuracy	68%	61%
GIR Percentage	60%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	52%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.90	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

 

Weighted Long Courses + Par-Four Scoring (15%)

 

Weighted Par-Five + Distance (20%)

 

Weighted Around-The-Green + Three-Putt (20%)

 

Overall Score Saving (15%)

 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Five Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($10,800) and Scottie Scheffler ($11,100) - We are talking about two players that have been the model of consistency at Augusta throughout their careers. Scheffler has yet to finish outside the top 20 in three starts, including his win last year, and Rahm has generated six top 27s in six career attempts. Because of the soft pricing, I wouldn't discredit the possibility of going two players in the $10,000 range and finding value lower on the board. I am not saying that is the only path to consider since there are a handful of $8,000+ golfers I like a lot, but I will have builds that go that route when we look at the 87-man field that will allow the top 50 and ties into the weekend. 
• Most Upside: Rory McIlroy ($10,600) - When I have run my 'Seven Deadly Sins' article in the past, McIlroy has been eliminated in each go-around because of his often shaky three-putt avoidance totals. However, that factor was nonexistent in 2023, as the Irishman graded an impressive 19th in that category. A wet Augusta sounds like a potential career grand slam for the 33-year-old may be on the horizon.
• Favorite GPP Play: Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
• Fade: None - All are playable and can be used together for a contrarian build.
• Most Likely Winner: Rory McIlroy ($10,600)

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Patrick Cantlay ($9,500) - That is a weird answer for a golfer who has been horrible in major championship contests more often than not, but 2023 feels like the year Patrick Cantlay breaks that trend in a big way. The American grades first in my model for par-five birdie or better percentage, which may help to generate a high-end profile that can take advantage of some of the easier holes at Augusta National.
• Most Upside: Cameron Smith ($9,800) - There is a ton of pressure on Cameron Smith to represent LIV. If things go well, he can prove to be a significant thorn in the side of the PGA Tour, but it is hard to know what to expect from these players until we get some semblance of a sample size. I lean toward Smith producing and threatening to win, although it is hard to know where his game is at from a competitive sense.
• Favorite GPP Play: Xander Schauffele ($9,000) - One major can massively change the trajectory of a golfer's career. I have always believed Schauffele's best chance will come at the Masters because of the immaculate short-game potential that sees him rank inside the top five in a handful of qualifying statistics.
• Fade: Collin Morikawa ($9,100) - I don't have a massive issue with Collin Morikawa. It just comes down to him being the least likely of the group that I would want to use. Historically, that hasn't been a death sentence for Morikawa's chances since I can't seem to get him right, but I always feel like the American is more of a top-20 golfer here than a name that will win the contest. I am willing to fade one of the higher early ownership totals I have on my board for that reason.
• Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($9,000) 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Jason Day ($8,700) - How safe can we be against injuries and other conditions? I guess not as out of the woods as I would ever care to admit, but Day's game is producing numbers that have propelled him into being a top 10 player in the world. I know the ranking isn't there yet, but this isn't a flash-in-the-pan output. Day is unequivocally back.
• Most Upside: Tony Finau ($8,900) - This hasn't turned into the year of Finau that I was projecting, but the game is in a sharp spot entering the Masters. All eight starts for the American have landed inside the top 25 this year, and he is one of the only golfers in this field that ranked inside the top 25 for expected off-the-tee, approach and putting projections. Could this be the spot for his first major?
• Favorite GPP Play: I am going to eat the ownership on Finau and Day and have them as two of my higher exposure players. That said, I don't mind taking shots on Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns or Matthew Fitzpatrick from a leverage standpoint.
• Fade: Cameron Young ($8,600) - The industry seems to love Cameron Young (I do as well from a season-long perspective), but I don't know if this is the best setup for his game. We may get there eventually with the help of Paul Tesori, although the putting and around-the-green metrics leave much to be desired. The distance and weighted proximity will give him a fighting shot, but I want to see him beat me once at Augusta before backing him at this event.
• Most Likely Winner: Tony Finau ($8,900) 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

• Safest Play: Si Woo Kim ($7,400) - The current form and course history are both checking all the boxes that you would hope to see.
• Most Upside: Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) - Inside my Seven Deadly Sins article, the only thing lacking for Fleetwood to crack the final list came down to his recent driving distance. I don't necessarily think a name is going to win in this section, but the profile is rather clean.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tom Kim ($7,700) - I am a glutton for punishment. Older 20-year-old Tom Kim hasn't looked like the vintage younger 20-year-old Kim from earlier in the season, but the industry has completely turned on a golfer that does have two victories to his name in the past eight months. I don't think we necessarily have win equity here for all the obvious answers of needing experience playing this course to create high-end finishes. Still, I wouldn't discredit a top 20 at virtually no ownership.
• Fade: Min Woo Lee ($7,600) - I understand this isn't going to be accepted by most reading this article. Min Woo Lee has quickly become one of the favorite bets of the industry, but I feel like there are better pivot spots available than a 12-15% owned golfer that does have a low floor. I am not going down this route myself, but if you wanted to bet him to land a top 10, I'll bite my tongue and say okay. However, I prefer Niemann when directly comparing golfers in this range.
• Most Likely Winner: Joaquin Niemann ($7,800) - Niemann had the highest strokes gained total from a weighted perspective in the $7,000 range. His talent has always been intoxicating, but as is the case with all LIV golfers, where is the current stature of his game? Only time will tell.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Seamus Power ($6,800) - Power ranked 15th in my model for putting on fast greens.
• Most Upside: You can find all the top 40 golfers in my model that presented unique upside spots.
• Favorite GPP Play: Alex Noren ($6,800) - Funny enough, if we removed needing a top 30 at this property in the last three attempts, Alex Noren would have qualified during the 'Seven Deadly Sins' article. That reason is enough for me not to be tempted by a dart throw outright, but I wouldn't be shocked if Noren makes a run up this leaderboard. 
• Fade: Gary Woodland ($6,700) - I think the driving potential will intrigue some people, but there are way too many red flags for me to bite.
• Most Likely Winner: Alex Noren ($6,800) 

 

 

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