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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till on 7/18/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
All good things come to an end eventually, and that is what we're facing this weekend with the UFC putting on its last show on Fight Island before heading back to the APEX in Las Vegas for the August 1 event. But first things first. We still have the main card to cover here that will take place at Yas Island, and it is one for the ages. Why you say? Well, there are no belts on the line here, but multiple fights canceled in previous events found their way to be re-scheduled to take place this weekend, making this a monstrous seven-fight affair in the main card to go with eight more bouts in the prelims. Talk about some fireworks.
Again, we'll not be watching anyone fight for a championship this weekend. However, the stakes can't be higher outside of that. The middleweight division has its most immediate future planned, as current-champ Israel Adesanya will face no. 2 Paulo Costa next. After that, it could very well be anyone of this weekend's headliners (no. 1 Robert Whittaker or no. 5 Darren Till) facing whoever wins that bout later this year. Before they step inside the octagon we'll get to watch long-time veterans in Mauricio Rua, Antonio Nogueira, Fabricio Werdum, and now-heavyweight Alex Gustafsson making his comeback to the UFC. Get excited, folks, because plenty is going on here!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till on 7/25/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Robert Whittaker, $8,300 - vs. Darren Till
Before dropping the belt losing his last fight to Adesanya, Whittaker was on a nine-fight winning streak spanning all the way back to 2014. That is no joke at all, and four of those nine wins came via KO and early stoppages. Whittaker was a menace then, and he's still these days no matter that most recent L in his fight log. Darren Till, on the other hand, will enter the Octagon with a W attached to his name after defeating Kelvin Gastelum in November but before that he lost two straight via KO and submission. He's fought way more times than Whittaker since 2017 too, with a 5-2 record since them compared to Whittaker's 3-1 in the same span.
Whittaker is an overwhelming striker, he averages more than 12 SS attempts per minute yet obviously he lands just 38 percent of them. Till, in comparison, only throws 5.5 per 60 seconds landing up to 45 percent. Both fighters absorb the same SS per minute (three) with Till dodging fewer than Wittaker (Till avoids 53 percent compared to Whittaker's 59 percent). The main difference between these two comes on the ground game. None of these two are super reliant on takedowns, but it's been more than four years since Whittaker pulled off his last one. Till has attempted at least one in his last two bouts, and also landed once in both fights.
This profiles as a close fight but I have to lean toward the ex-champ Whittaker as he's just a freaking bomber. He got caught by Adesanya, sure, but Till is still too fresh for me to win this one and he was dropped by the best two fighters he's faced as of late. Not a huge difference in fantasy salaries either, so Whittaker looks like a nice bet with chances of a stack too if you feel like it.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mauricio Rua, $9,000 - vs. Antonio Nogueira
Look. Rua is 38 and Nogueira is 44. Rua debuted in the UFC in 2007, Nogueira in 2009. Rua was able to become a champion (defeating LHW Lyoto Machida in 2010), while Nogueria never even had the chance of scoring himself a title fight. This could mark the end of one or two careers, so enjoy it while it lasts. Both men launch more than 8 SS per 60 seconds, although Rua is way more threatening on a slightly lower volume thanks to his 47 percent landed SS. They also eat strikes big time, with an average of 6+ SS absorbed per minute, only here Nogueira has better defense rates.
Rua's takedown prowess could make the difference on Saturday. He's younger and he goes for his opponents trying to bring them down, something Nogueria has never ever done. Nogueira need an early KO to become a good fantasy play, while Rua tends to get higher scores even though they're not mindblowing themselves. I'd pick Rua to win this fight, but in fantasy contests, I'd really pass on both. Low upside not worth pursuing.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Fabricio Werdum, $6,900- vs. Alexander Gustafsson
It sounds crazy, but Alex's second-to-last fight was a title fight against Jon Jones... in 2018. The swede has only fought once more since then and dropped that one against Anthony Smith in June last year via submission. He's now jumping to the HW division to face another long-time legend in former-champ Fabricio Werdum, who is on a 0-2 run since the start of 2018 and lost his last one versus Aleksei Oleinik back in May.
These two need a win, although this is far from a career-changing fight for either. Gustafsson comes in as the favorite and he was great in the LHW division, so if he completes a successful jump in weight and looks the part he should get this one. He throws punches in bunches (8.8 SS per minute) and lands north of 40 percent of them, and he's also shown prowess on the grappling side of things (0.15 TDA per minute, 44.4 percent successful). I know it is a little bit crazy but Comeback-Alex still has to prove his worth in the HW division and Werdum is so cheap and has such a high floor in fantasy (even in defeat) that I'd go with him on this one as an absolute contrary play.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Carla Esparza, $7,600 - vs. Marina Rodriguez
There is no denying in what Rodriguez has accomplish in her short UFC career (2-0-2) has she has to yet lose a fight, but Esparza has been going on for longer (debuted in 2015) and although she's the underdog here she's carrying a three-fight winning streak, all of them decision wins. While Rodriguez almost doubles Esparza in SS per minute (10.9 to 5.9) and lands more (48.8% to 39.8%), she doesn't use takedowns at all.
Esparza, though? She has gone for 10+ in her last three fights and landed one, four, and four. She brings opponents to the mat for fun, and although her TD defense is not the best ever that is something she wouldn't need to worry about here. Pencil Esparza in for the W, her first via submission (it's about time!).
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Craig, $8,000 - vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Both Craig and Antigulov come at virtually the same price this weekend, only on completely opposite runs. Craig is 1-0-1 in his last two, while Antigulov is riding a two-fight losing streak, both of those losses coming via KO inside the first round. Craig has also fought four times since the start of 2019 compared to Antigulov's four bouts combined since 2016.
It is not that either fighter will blow your mind because of their striking volume, with none attempting more than 100 SS in their UFC careers, but given Antigulov's last two outings and that Craig has won all of his fights via submission early I have to give Craig the edge. He's fresher, more active, has a higher fantasy floor, and looks a little more rounded than his foe.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Oliveira, $8,700 - vs. Peter Sobotta
Only because Sobotta has not stepped inside an Octagon since early 2018 I think I already have enough reasons to pick Alex Oliveira, who has fought six times after Sobotta's last bout. Oliveira is 3-3 in that span, while Sobotta lost his last fight before quitting the UFC for more than two years and running. Neither of those two has been a world-beater, but at least Oliveira enters this fight having won his last one just four months ago (though he lost three straight prior to that one...).
The striking is pretty much the same for both, only with Sobotta absorbing a higher rate than Oliveira but ultimately the same SS (2.3 to 2.1). Oliveira doubles Sobotta in TD attempts per 60 seconds (0.43 to 0.20) and lands virtually the same (40.6% to 44.4%), but is worst defending them. Tough, tough draw for Sobotta on his comeback here. To be honest in fantasy contests I don't like any of these two, but at least Oliveira has a higher floor in his losses so in case he drops this one you'd be paying for some points compared to Sobotta's ground-level floor.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rhys McKee, $6,400 - vs. Khamzat Chimaev
This is the most unbalanced fight of the whole card, all of main card's and preliminary fights included, in terms of fighter prices. At the end of the day, though, we're looking at a second-fight entrant in Chimaev (he debuted for the UFC just 10 days ago) and a true-freshman in McKee. This is insane all around the place, and adding wood to the fire Chimaev is dropping a few pounds to fight at Welterweight after debuting in the Middleweight division last week.
Truth be told, Chimaev looked great. He landed 43/52 SS and was successful on his two TD attempts. McKee is a finisher himself, winning fights both via KO and submission. Is Chimaev the favorite? Sure. Would I be sane paying top-dollar for him on a fight between prospects? No, hell no. I'd rather eat a big L for peanuts than getting a W coming with a huge sized question mark over it.
