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Gotta be happy about the love the UFC has shown to women in the past half a month, putting four girls in the headliner of their two (past and upcoming) latest fight cards. It was Dern and Rodriguez in UFC Vegas 39 last weekend, and it's now Ladd and Dumont after a series of COVID/injury-related issues left the likes of Holly Holm and Miesha Tate on the shelves for at least a few more weeks while they wait for their now-delayed turn.
So that's what'll be popping around Vegas this weekend. Ladd (no. 10 P4P Women, no. 3 in the BW class) is facing up-and-coming Dumont (not ranked) in which can be the fight that solidifies Ladd as a true title-contender... or the one that sees Dumont jump into the ranks and building a serious resume herself to attack Amanda Nunes' belt going forward. Before that, though, we'll watch infinite Andrei Arlovski and Jim Miller getting back at it, and a bunch of still-green (in experience, not in results, mind you) fighters finding his way battling through long-time MMA artists.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 40: Ladd vs. Dumont on 10/16/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Women's Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Norma Dumont, $7800 - vs. Aspen Ladd
This could be as fun as it can end quickly. These two have been fantastic so far in their UFC tenures, though there is a little thing going on with this battle: Ladd, she of the 4-1 record and three KOs (with another one against her), hasn't been inside the octagon for almost two years. Dumont, on the other hand, has fought three times in the past year and a half going 2-1 herself in that span always winning via decision but getting KO'd in her debut after just 3:31 minutes of fighting time.
I am not saying a rusty Ladd--even if that's the case, which we still don't know--can't win this one, because she doesn't need more than a bunch of chances to knock foes down, but Dumont has looked so good after dropping that first fight and she is definitely fresher for me to consider her the favorite. Dumont has gone 4-of-10 in takedowns in her three fights while also reaching 135+ SSA in the past two, landing above 55% of her total strikes in all of her three fights since Feb. 2020. Ladd just did never need huge volume to finish her opponents, and the threat will be there. But all things considered, I'd bet on the slightly less experienced Dumont extending her two-win streak this weekend with a victory over Ladd.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Carlos Felipe, $8000 - vs. Andrei Arlovski
Typical heavyweight fight, this one. Forget about watching any type of ground-based action here, because these two are just going to exchange strikes with each other on Saturday. None of them has pulled off a takedown in the past three years (!) and if we combine the fight logs of the two we find out that they have gone for just a couple of TD in that same span.
Arlovski (entering his 36th UFC fight) is carrying a 3-1 record since the start of 2020 after going through a horrid skid from 2016 to 2019. Felipe dropped his debut against Serghei Spivac but then proceeded to win three straight in the 12 months leading up to this fight--his last win coming as late as last June. Arlovski has not KO'd a foe since May 2015 (!!) and only wins decisions on low-volume striking these days while he's gotten bot KO'd and subbed in his last two losses. Felipe looks much better right now, and although he doesn't know how to knock opponents out (three decision victories) he still puts up 120+ SSA per fight landing a good 50% of all shots he throws. Gotta bet on Felipe snatching his fourth W in a row even if it's not with an exciting KO.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jim Miller, $8700 - vs. Erick Gonzalez
This is the type of fight we all love. I mean, it's just something you need to witness come Saturday night. Erick Gonzalez is making his official UFC debut this weekend. That's cool. What is cooler, though, is Jim Miller. Jimmy is facing this freshman... while stepping into the octagon for the 38th time in his UFC career this weekend. Say what!? We hadn't even reached the 2010s the first time Miller fought--and won--in the UFC, all the way back in Oct. 2008. He put together a 9-1 record to kick his career off, yet Miller would never fight for the belt.
Miller's chances of grabbing a strap are low to none at this point if we're honest. He's just 4-8 since 2017 and comes off two straight losses. BUT. Miller is still as much a submission menace as anyone out there. All of those "late" four victories came via sub inside the first round, and opponents better watch out if they don't want to fall to Miller's experience at it. Gonzalez falls on the completely opposite side of the spectrum, fading takedowns and submissions and exchanging them for a mighty KO-prowess--he's gone on to get 8 KO victories in his 14 wins as a pro. Miller has never suffered in terms of getting rocked, and Gonzalez is just debuting this weekend while he comes with a track record of falling prey to submissions twice over his career. I know it sounds insane, and that Miller is an all-or-nothing bet, but I'm with the vet getting back to the W column with a submission of the newcomer this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Julian Marquez, $8800 - vs. Jordan Wright
Dana White knows what's good, so he serves it to us with gusto. Marquez and right can't sit further in the fighting-style spectrum. Both of these two artists have been inside an octagon three times each with Marquez coming in at 3-0 and Wright doing so with a 2-1 record in the promo. Now, that being said, Wright had all his fights in the past 14 months while Marquez debuted all the way back on Dec. 2017 and stayed out until his comeback this past February.
Anyway. What matters here is that Marquez has won all his three fights via submission reaching the third round only once and that he's facing a Jordan Wright who got his two victories via first-round KO while getting dropped himself with a second-round finisher last November. This truly feels like an all-or-nothing pair of fantasy picks, so there is not a lot to gain from lining up any of these two for this weekend's DFS contest. If I had to go with one, though, I'd err on Marquez's side as even though he's always won via submission without even pulling a single TD by himself. Grappling awards higher FP scores, Marquez also edges Wright on striking volume (don't get too hyped, though, as Marquez has topped at 100 SSA), and Marquez has yet to meet defeat in the UFC.
