RADIO
The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on July 8th, 2018. Elliott Baas' MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
We've got a ten game featured slate on DraftKings this Sunday, and it's an odd pitching slate. Going into the season we never would've expected to see Zach Eflin ($10,400) as the most expensive pitcher on a two-game slate, let alone a main slate. With a lack of a true ace there is a bloated middle class of pitchers, meaning with no high priced options we'll have more salary to spend on batters. Three games are tied for the highest expected total, with BOS @ KC, OAK @ CLE, and NYY @ TOR all having a 9.5 O/U. BAL @ MIN and MIA @ WSH are just behind them with a 9.0 O/U.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/8/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @ElliottBaasBB.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Dallas Keuchel, HOU (vs. CWS): $9,200
Keuchel has had an up-and-down season, but has largely taken care of weaker opponents. He gets a great matchup at home on this slate against the White Sox, who have a .307 wOBA and strikeout 26.6% of the time against left-handed pitching. Keuchel’s 4.12 ERA may be a little higher than expected, but his 3.77 FIP is perfectly in line with the previous two seasons. This slate lacks a true ace, so Keuchel at $9,200 is the guy to lean on in an easy matchup.
Jake Odorizzi, MIN (vs. BAL): $7,300
Odorizzi has done a great job of curbing his home run issues as of late, allowing just one home run in his last six starts. Odorizzi still has a 5.53 ERA over than span, but a 3.04 FIP and 11.7 K/9 suggest that he’s pitched much better despite the inflated ERA. Over his last two starts Odorizzi has allowed just two runs and struck out 15 batters in 11 innings. He’s in a great spot on Sunday at home against Baltimore, as the Orioles have a .291 wOBA and 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C – Tucker Barnhart, CIN (@ CHC): $3,400
The switch-hitting Barnhart has fared much better against lefties this season. He has a .373 AVG and .966 OPS versus left-handed pitchers this season. Cubs’ starter Jon Lester hasn’t been as good as his ERA this year, with a 4.16 FIP and 2.26 K/BB ratio, his worst marks by those metrics in over a decade. Lester has lost a step over the last couple seasons, and while we don’t necessarily want to load up on Reds against him, a lefty-masher like Barnhart is a good play in this matchup. Kyle Higashioka ($3,400) would also be a good option if he’s in the lineup.
1B – Logan Morrison, MIN (vs. BAL): $3,500
Twins’ hitters have a juicy matchup against Alex Cobb, who has been a disaster for the Orioles this season. Cobb has been bad in general, but has plenty of struggles with lefties. Left-handed batters have hit .321 with a .389 wOBA and .548 SLG against Cobb. Morrison is a cheap lefty power hitter in the middle of the Twins’ lineup, mostly hitting fifth behind Brian Dozier. Yes, Morrison is hitting .191 with a .648 OPS, but his Statcast numbers suggest he’s been rather unlucky this season. Morrison has a .251 xBA and .489 xSLG, both of which are within 22 points of his expected stats last season.
2B – Brian Dozier, MIN (vs. BAL): $4,000
Dozier has also been rather disappointing this season with a .218 AVG and .692 OPS, but this is play based on talent and matchup. The best values in DFS often come from proven players in slumps, because their price becomes so depressed after long periods of struggles. With a player like Dozier, who we still believe to be an elite second baseman, he’s worth the play in a matchup against Cobb. Cobb may have slightly worse numbers against to lefties, but righties have a .376 wOBA and .546 SLG against him this season.
3B – Miguel Andujar, NYY (@ TOR): $3,900
The Yankees take on young lefty Ryan Borucki in Toronto this Sunday, and while Borucki has a 2.77 ERA through his first two starts, he’s got a tall task ahead of him against the New York Yankees in his third career major league start. Borucki had a 4.04 FIP and 2.07 K/BB ratio at Triple-A before his promotion, which are underwhelming numbers for a player of his age. The Yankees, on the other hand, are the best hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching. They have a .354 wOBA and .234 ISO versus lefties, both best in the majors by a considerable margin. Andujar has been a big part of their dominance, with an .820 OPS and .288 ISO against lefties this season.
SS – Eduardo Escobar, MIN (vs. BAL): $4,600
We want to stick with the Minnesota bats against Cobb, and Escobar fits in wonderfully as our shortstop. Escobar has hit righties much better than lefties this season with a .288 AVG, .930 OPS, and .302 ISO versus southpaws this season. For salary savings you can pivot to Jorge Polanco ($3,900), but Escobar is the preferred option if we’re paying up at shortstop.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
OF – Aaron Judge, NYY (vs. TOR): $5,400
OF – Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (vs. TOR): $5,100
If we want Yankees exposure these two are often the best choices in a stacked lineup. In case you aren’t convinced of this duo's elite power, I’ll break it down for you. Aaron Judge has the fifth highest ISO (.289), seventh best OPS (.960), and is tied for the second most home runs (24) in the majors. Giancarlo Stanton has been among the best lefty-mashers this season. He has the third best ISO (.414), fifth best OPS (1.163), and is tied for the second most home runs (10) versus left-handed pitchers. These two are where we want to allocate salary in the outfield, though Eddie Rosario ($4,900) would be a good pivot from either of them. Playing all three of them, while certainly possible, greatly limits our options at other positions. The best way to do it while stacking the Twins and Yankees would be to drop down from Escobar to Polanco at shortstop and play any sub-$3,000 catcher. Christian Vazquez ($2,800) or Manny Pina ($2,700) would both be fine punt options.
OF – Max Kepler, MIN (vs. BAL): $3,600
Kepler is just another cheap left-handed Twin to fit in our lineup against Cobb. Although his .223 AVG is disappointing, Kepler has a career high 10.7% walk rate and his .172 ISO is still in line with his career average. Lineup position is important for Kepler. If he’s hitting sixth or higher then he’s a great play, but if he’s hitting seventh or lower then Kepler is less interesting.
