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Benjamin looks at top MLB prospect risers for Fantasy Baseball Week 24 (2023). He shares his minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.
Every year, new prospects jump into our dynasty consciousness in Major League Baseball. This year is no different. Some excellent players who did not perform last season after being drafted made debuts this season and have already shown out, international signees are getting their first full-season experience, and 2023 draftees and signees are already making an impact.
This week's piece looks at six hitters and six pitchers who are making their first impression a good one this season, whether that's new draftees, new signees, or players simply getting their first shot at full-season baseball. However, early success does not always portend fantasy value, so which of these guys matters for your team? Take a look below!
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Runs: 1. Austin Gauthier 108, 2. Blake Dunn 102, 3. Masyn Winn 99, 4. Jakob Marsee 97, 5 (tie). Jonatan Clase and Jackson Holliday 95.
- Plate Appearances: 1. Cole Young 583, 2. Connor Norby 564, 3. Grant McCray 560, 4. Victor Scott II 559.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
One of the elite players in the country coming out of high school in 2020, he chose to withdraw from the draft in order to attend Lousiana State. He and LSU teammate Paul Skenes went back-to-back at the very top of the 2023 draft, with Skenes going to Pittsburgh first overall and Crews heading to the Nationals with the second pick.
Crews' college numbers are arguably the best in the last 50 years for a predraft prospect. He posted 58 home runs and 23 stolen bases with a .380/.498/.689 over 196 games playing in the toughest collegiate conference in the country. He also walked more than he struck out.
Crews has already flown through the minors, reaching Double-A this season. Over 25 games across three levels, Crews has slashed .313/.391/.535 with five home runs and three stolen bases.
VERDICT: Crews should be the top selection in offseason First-Year Player Drafts (FYPDs) and very well could make his MLB debut before midseason in 2024. He should be rostered in all dynasty formats.
Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles
After years of avoiding the Latin market, Baltimore got back into the international market once Mike Elias took over as the executive vice president and general manager of the team. Basallo was a great signing in 2020 out of the Dominican Republic for $1.3 million. Listed at 6'3" and 200 pounds when he was signed, many projected that Basallo could have an impressive bat, but may end up moving to first base.
Instead, he's worked hard to improve his physicality while spending a pair of seasons in complex leagues, first in the DSL in 2021 and the FCL in 2022. This year he's played across both A-ball levels in his full-season debut, slashing .299/.391/.520 with 17 home runs while using his improved physicality to leg out five triples and steal 11 bases.
While he won't win any Gold Gloves behind the plate, he's shown to be more than capable, especially at controlling the run game. The bat is still impressive enough that the Orioles have been getting him time at first base and DH at each level.
VERDICT: Basallo is just 19 (as of August 13), and he's one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. He may not be a major leaguer until 2026, but he should be owned in all dynasty formats.
Matt Shaw, SS, Chicago Cubs
Considered an elite bat in this summer's draft coming out of the University of Maryland, Shaw fell into the Cubs' hands with the 13th pick, and Chicago could not be happier. He's now jumped all the way to Double-A Tennessee in his pro debut.
Shaw showed impressive power, hitting 46 home runs over 122 games over his final two years with the Terrapins while posting a 77/88 BB/K rate. In his pro debut, he's slashed .395/.439/.649 with 15 extra-base hits and 12 stolen bases in 28 games.
The big question for Shaw is where he'll play on the diamond. While he has excellent hands, his range isn't MLB-level at shortstop. That doesn't preclude him from putting in extra effort and holding down shortstop, but he's likely to move to second, especially with defensive whiz Dansby Swanson ahead of him in Chicago.
VERDICT: Shaw will be an early first-round pick in FYPDs this offseason and should continue moving quickly through the Cubs' system. That said, Nico Hoerner is signed through 2026 at second base, so Shaw's best (and quickest) MLB fit could be at third. He should be owned in all dynasty formats before 2024 kicks off.
William Bergolla, 2B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies
The son of a former major leaguer who was once a highly-regarded prospect (and shares his name), Bergolla was signed by the Phillies in January 2022 for $2.05 million. He then made his pro debut in the DSL, slashing .380/.470/.423 over 83 plate appearances with an incredible 11/3 BB/K rate.
This season, the 18-year-old Bergolla was jumped to Single-A Clearwater, and he showed his elite plate discipline, posting a .251/.348/.285 slash line, with a 28/17 BB/K rate over 212 plate appearances. He's played both second base and shortstop this season, with 31 games at second and 20 games at short.
Bergolla moves smoothly in the infield, but his range is likely going to be just short of being able to handle short. He struggles to put a charge into the ball, showing nearly no power thus far, without a great frame to grow into future power. He does have above-average speed but his instincts on the base paths are currently still lacking.
VERDICT: The success of Luis Arraez in the last few seasons definitely raises the profile of a player like Bergolla, but his contact skills have not yet shown to be as elite as Arraez. Right now, Bergolla should only be rostered in the deepest dynasty leagues until he either shows an increased ability to access power or elite contact ability (or both).
Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers
The last few years have harvested a number of excellent players from the Bahamas, though the top player that has come out of the islands in the last decade has been Jazz Chisholm. The Rangers signed Walcott from the Bahamas this year for $3.2 million.
Walcott has had a tremendous ascent through the Texas system as a 17-year-old this season, with the rare move from the Dominican Summer League to stateside complex ball, and finishing his year in High-A. He's combined to slash .253/.338/.489 with 24 extra-base hits and 12 stolen bases in 45 games with a 10% walk rate and a 29% strikeout rate.
The power is very obvious for the 6'4" shortstop, both in his bat and in his arm. He does have swing-and-miss tendencies in his game, and that will lead to issues with contact as he works into more advanced pitching. Even then, Walcott is such a tremendous athlete that he's going to offer value to his team while he works through contact and whiff issues.
VERDICT: Walcott has become a big-name add in dynasty leagues this season, but you could probably hold off in shallow dynasty until he's able to repeat his 2023 performance in 2024.
Alfredo Duno, C, Cincinnati Reds
While the fantasy and prospect community has gone bonkers over the San Diego Padres' Ethan Salas, who jumped all the way to Double-A already as a 17-year-old, Duno was considered by many to only be a shade less of an overall talent behind the plate as Salas when the Reds signed him for more than $3 million out of Venezuela.
Duno made his debut in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .303/.451/.493 over 45 games with six home runs and six stolen bases with a 38/41 BB/K ratio. He exhibited athleticism behind the plate and the basepaths beyond a typical catching prospect.
Duno's arm is definitely a plus and while he needs work on his overall receiving behind the plate, he's taken to coaching well from the Reds thus far.
VERDICT: As impressive as the word on Duno is, he's a 17-year-old catcher who has yet to even play stateside. Definitely keep him on your watch list, but only the deepest of dynasty leagues need to consider rostering Duno right now.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- K% (Min. 20 IP): 1. Ricky Tiedemann 46.8%, 2. Michael Saturria 45.9%, 3. John McMillon 45.3%, 4. Leonardo Taveras 45.2%.
- Total batters faced: 1. Mitch Spence 624, 2. Jay Groome 600, 3. Michael McGreevy 589, 4. Shaddon Peavyhouse 584.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Hurston Waldrep, SP, Atlanta Braves
Waldrep put up a pair of impressive seasons with Southern Miss before transferring to Florida this year, where he was lights-out for the Gators in the postseason until he struggled with his control against LSU in Omaha. He finished the year with 156 strikeouts over 101 2/3 innings.
The Braves drafted Waldrep with the 24th overall selection in July, and though he's only pitched 18 total innings across five appearances in the minors, he has worked all the way up to Double-A Mississippi. He's posted an incredible 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over that time with a 29/9 K/BB ratio.
Waldrep's best pitch is a double-plus split-finger that he then mixes with a fastball that can touch 99 and a fringe-plus slider. Based on pure pitch grades, Waldrep would seem to be a future ace, but control has plagued him throughout his pitching career.
VERDICT: If there is a better system to maximize Waldrep than the Braves, it's hard to imagine what team it would be. The Braves will likely take away the splitter to force Waldrep to focus on commanding his heater and slider, but the splitter gives him a strong floor as a dominant reliever if he can't be developed as a starter. Waldrep is probably not a guy to worry about in shallow dynasty in 2024, but deep and mid-sized dynasty leagues should absolutely have him owned.
Noble Meyer, SP, Miami Marlins
The top-ranked high school pitcher in the 2023 draft, Meyer has the ideal size to dream of as a pitcher, standing 6'5" with broad shoulders and a hip base that could add healthy weight and a background as a high school pitcher from the Northwest (Oregon) that doesn't have the tax on his arm that many prep pitchers do.
Meyer has already been promoted to full-season ball with Single-A Jupiter of the Florida State League. So far he's made five appearances, throwing 11 innings and striking out 15, though he has walked seven in that time.
Meyer works with a pair of plus pitches, with a fastball touching triple digits and a wicked mid-80s slider with a deep break. He's working on his average changeup that plays up with his arm action and repeatable delivery.
VERDICT: Meyer has rotation frontline upside. However, he's also a prep arm with notable work on controlling his pitches to do before he should be ready to bolt up the Marlins' system. He should be rostered in deep and mid-sized dynasty leagues, but watching until he has controlled success in full-season ball would be smart.
Pete Hansen, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
A guy that many tagged with the label of a pitch ability lefty coming out of the University of Texas where he'd had a dominant final two seasons in 2021-2022, posting a 2.90 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 298 2/3 innings with a 200/42 K/BB ratio, Hansen was selected in the third round in 2022 by the Cardinals.
The Cardinals did not throw Hansen last season after he was drafted, and then they sent him to Single-A Palm Beach this year, where he's posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a 119/37 K/BB over 107 innings. While Hansen has seen a high number of home runs, he's also induced a 45% ground ball rate.
Hansen throws in the upper-80s with his fastball and uses a low-80s slider to generate swing and miss. He also tosses in an average-ish curve and change to make up a four-pitch mix that he typically controls at a fringe-plus level. His stuff is not overpowering, which requires elite command and control.
VERDICT: The future for Hansen likely looks like a backend starter at best. He's best left alone at this point until he shows his stuff can work in the upper minors.
Landon Sims, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
After a sophomore season at Mississippi State where he was arguably the most dominant pitcher on the Bulldogs' championship-winning roster working out of the bullpen, Sims was set to take over at the front of the Mississippi State rotation in 2022 and was dominating in his first few starts of the season, posting a 1.15 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in three starts covering 15 2/3 innings with a K/BB of 27/2.
Then Sims had Tommy John surgery. The Bulldogs' season collapsed and so did Sims' draft stock, allowing him to fall to the 34th overall selection in the 2022 draft when he was once considered one of the top overall picks. He finally made his way onto the field this season as he recovered from surgery, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 22 innings, posting a 25/10 K/BB, reaching Single-A.
Sims' slider is among the best in the minors with its wipeout action. His fastball is elite, sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper-90s. Those two pitches are often enough for Sims right now, but he has struggled with his command as he returns from surgery, leading to games where the high-spin action of his fastball just isn't there and he is hit hard.
VERDICT: There is still notable reliever risk with Sims, but he should have a ceiling as a backend reliever if he is moved full-time into the bullpen. No need to roster him until he either shows the ability to work five innings consistently or reaches the upper minors.
Jun-Seok Shim, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
A 6'4" 19-year-old righty from Korea, Shim signed with the Pirates in January for $750,000. Shim is known for his impressive feel for his secondary options, shaping his average curve and slider in multiple ways and tinkering with multiple grips to his change.
The focus of Shim's repertoire is his fastball which can touch triple digits with excellent rising action. He's a plus athlete on the mound and can repeat his delivery well, which would indicate future improvements in control.
Kim had a strong, albeit brief, debut at the Florida complex this year. He totaled a 3.38 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over eight innings while posting a 13/3 K/BB ratio.
VERDICT: Shin has received some lofty comparisons already, but he is still a guy who hasn't tossed a pitch in full-season ball yet. I'd stay away right now, but he's absolutely a guy that should be high on watch lists heading into 2024.
Luis Morales, SP, Oakland Athletics
An impressive 20-year-old Cuban defector signed by the Oakland Athletics in January for $3 million, Morales spent two years after defecting in Mexico honing his body from a 6'3" beanpole to a 190-200 pound well-developed arm. His stuff has also ticked up with the added muscle.
Morales can touch triple digits with his fastball to key a four-pitch mix. He tosses a pair of above-average breaking pitches with an average change that he's still working on, though his new added muscle has also led to some struggle with controlling the added snap on his fastball and momentum of his body toward the plate, leading to some command issues.
While he may not be spotting the ball exactly where he'd like, Morales has been pounding the zone in his pro debut, accelerating up four levels in the A's system this year, reaching High-A. Combined, he's posted a 3.15 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with a 49/13 K/BB over 40 innings.
VERDICT: The raw stuff that Morales has would lead to a mid-rotation starter with upside as long as he can remain healthy.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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