The Deepest Dive - QB Sleepers in 16+ Team Leagues

Antonio Losada evaluates ADP data related to deep fantasy football leagues and comes up with four quarterbacks that can become valuable QB sleepers in 16-plus team leagues and formats.

Can you name every fantasy league you played in last season? Probably not. But can you think of their average structure? The most probable question is yes because most leagues are often comprised of eight to 12 teams with 15 roster spots each and use the now-standard PPR format of scoring. That is not always the case, though, and some fantasy GMs engage in way deeper leagues yearly in order to have a tougher challenge on their hands.

Fantasy leagues can be as large as the commish wants them to be, but for our purposes, we're going to define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means each draft round would consist of 16 picks and there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADP over 240 using a dataset comprised of drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points, those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.

Here is a look at four quarterbacks that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16+ team leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2021 season!

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Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans

ADP: 268

Let's start at the beginning. Tyrod Taylor is, at the time of this writing, projected to the highest total fantasy points among QBs with an ADP below 240 (via PFF). He's almost at 200 FP to the tune of 380+ passing attempts to go with 70+ schemed carries. That means he would be part of around 450 opportunities created (for him and his teammates), a top-30 mark, and one above four other quarterbacks with much higher ADPs (Winston, Newton, and... Deshaun Watson!)

Taylor is not the QB1 of the Texans, or is he? We have not had any updates on the whole Watson situation, and obviously the moment he's "cleared" to play and confirmed available we can start forgetting about Tyrod Taylor doing anything of substance. But odds are Watson misses time--if not the full 2021 season. Enter potential league-winner Taylor. And don't think that's too much for Taylor, as we're talking about super-deep leagues in which every player counts and can prove vital down the line.

Taylor was massively unlucky last season when he lost the starting gig to rookie Justin Herbert because of reasons not having to do a thing with his game. Prior to landing in LA, backing up Baker Mayfield in Cleveland was always going to be that, a pine-riding role. But when playing for Buffalo in the 2015-17 span in which he was the go-to QB for the Bills, he was fantastic. Taylor went for 271, 270, and 223 FP, and most encouragingly, he did it both passing and rushing the rock. He's now 32, which should give us some pause, but there are just no quarterbacks at all with his all-around game available this late in fantasy drafts.

Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos

ADP: 266

As long as Aaron Rodgers doesn't buy his Rocky Mountain trip tickets, I think we're safe to assume Bridgewater will end up manning most of Denver's reps this upcoming season. That's how folks over at PFF think of this two-QB situation too, and it's how I've always thought of it. I get those calling for an extended deployment of Drew Lock, but if we're honest, Bridgewater has the highest floor right now and would give the Broncos a better chance of winning games.

Nothing is set in stone at this point, and the Broncos' QB1 role is still up for grabs. That being said, and while there are no indications from the coaching staff about who will take on those duties, news from the training camps talk about Bridgewater building better connections with the receiving corps than those Lock is showing. PFF has a 192-FP projection for Bridgewater while Lock is projected to 99 FP himself. That means that there is a world in which Bridgewater starts all 17 games and snatches most of that chunk of FP from Lock, getting to a more than palatable 275+ FP throughout the full campaign.

It's not crazy to think about Bridgewater hitting that 250 FP mark in 17 games. Playing 15 matches for Carolina last season, Teddy already got to 241 FP, averaging 16.1 FPPG. The touchdowns and interceptions were very balanced with 15 and 11 respectively, but Bridgewater added five rushing scores on 53 carries to go with 279 yards on the ground. That's where Teddy's mojo is at, and that's also a part of his game that is going to be hard to find in other quarterbacks in this range: Bridgewater ranked fifth in RZ Rushing Rate (13.7%) among QBs with 700+ snaps last season.

Andy Dalton, Chicago Bears

ADP: 303

Dak Prescott was able to start five games for the Cowboys in 2020, and it all pointed toward a QB1 finish for the quarterback had he stayed healthy as he scored 17+ FP in the first four games and a massive 31+ in his last three complete games before suffering the season-ending injury in Week 5. That moment marked Andy Dalton's first serious appearance of what would ultimately be a nine-game season from Week 6 on.

Dalton wasn't bad. He put up five consecutive QB2 games from Weeks 11 to 15, then doubled up on that with a QB1 finish to the tune of 27.6 FP in Week 16, and closed the year with a borderline QB2 (actually a QB3) performance in Week 17 with 13.5 FP. All in all, he seemingly did enough for Chicago to pay him and--as things look at the time of this writing--hand him the starting role come 2021. Yes, above rookie Justin Fields at least to start the season.

After a nine-year career in Cincy in which he never dropped from 174 FP or a QB25 finish, Dalton lowered his performance levels in Dallas when his name was called upon. He was good for 12.4 FPPG, but he never seemed to be comfy manning the offense. The rushing is pretty much non-existent with Dalton, and although he limited his picks to single-digits, he also was able to throw only 14 touchdowns over his nine starts. He's a vet, though, and if only for the first few weeks (until Justin Fields inevitably is named the starter), he should be good enough for those in 2QB or super-deep leagues.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

ADP: 274

Mac Jones is on the other side of Andy Dalton's equation, pretty much in a similar situation to that of fellow rookie Justin Fields in Chicago. With a veteran above him in the pecking order in Cam Newton, Jones will need to sit his bum for a few weeks (or longer) until Newton flops and the Patriots are forced to hand Mac the QB1 duties out of pure necessity to get some Ws.

Newton's rushing prowess is a cheat code, and that's something Jones won't get even remotely close to when out there in the pocket. There is just no way he rushes the rock 130+ times, let alone reaching Newton's 592 rushing yards from 2020. Even then, though, his passing should best that of Newton without much trouble, mostly because Cam was horrific at it last year with an 8:10 TD:INT ratio while completing only 242 passes for a measly 2,657 yards through 15 starts.

In terms of projections, PFF has the Newton-Jones pairing on a very similar level to that of Bridgewater-Lock. It makes sense, considering the former is doomed for a vet-for-rook flip midway through the season, and the latter is totally performance-dependent and neither of those two QBs is a lock to perform steadily. If Jones fulfills his 190-FP projection and eats into Newton's 98+ FP projection too, he could easily finish inside the 230-250 clip and prove to be a rather nice play at the position. Obvious streamer/WW addition in shallow leagues, but a must-draft late in deeper formats if you want to use him late in the season when he becomes the starter.

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