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John's favorite dark-horses to finish as the overall RB1 in 2025. His top fantasy football breakout running backs to smash ADP and provide a huge return.
It won't be easy for a running back this year to beat out Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley for the title of RB1 overall in PPR fantasy football leagues. Barkley is set to reprise his massive role from 2024, provided he stays healthy again, which should lead to huge fantasy scoring once again.
Yet the overall RB1 tends to change year over year, meaning it's not impossible that it happens. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if someone like Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson or San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey takes the title from Barkley, but we all know those guys are already good.
It can be more valuable, however, to identify possible dark horse candidates to finish as the top RB. Even if they don't finish on top, my analysis indicates that many of them should smash their average draft position with their eventual production. So let's dive in!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) rankings
- Quarterback (QB) rankings
- Tight end (TE) rankings
- Defense (D/ST) rankings
- Kicker (K) rankings
- FLEX rankings
- Dynasty rankings
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos
Harvey is a player I've been high on since February. The Broncos are an absolute dream landing spot for him. Of course, they have J.K. Dobbins on their roster, and he's expected to have a non-insignificant role, but it makes sense that the team signed him.
Harvey's pass protection isn't great, and Dobbins is much better in that area. But Broncos head coach Sean Payton has a history of driving elite running back production in fantasy football, even in the committees he runs. Such was the case with Saints running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Sean Payton Coached Teams
+ Rank by Team Running Back (PPR) FPG2024: 18th
2023: 6th
2022: N/A
2021: 21st
2020: 1st
2019: 8th
2018: 2nd
2017: 1st
2016: 1st
2015: 2nd
2014: 1st
2013: 2nd
2012: 1st
2011: 1sttop-6 finishes in 10 of 13 seasons
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 29, 2025
Last year wasn't so great, but they had a very poorly performing group of running backs. RB Javonte Williams was let go after the season and signed a very cheap contract with the Dallas Cowboys. RB Jaleel McLaughlin remains with the team on his rookie contract. And RB Audric Estime was cut after just one season.
Payton tried many different combinations of these backs to no avail. The Broncos finished as the No. 1 offensive line in the NFL in run block win rate, so the trenches are in amazing shape. That will be huge for Harvey, who was already very elusive and efficient in college.
Unlike Quinshon Judkins, who often had very poor games at Ohio State against good competition, even with great run blocking, RJ Harvey just smashed every P4 team he played against in 2024. Not a bad game in his game log here, and he didn't have TreVeyon Henderson to spell him. pic.twitter.com/W5coQxT70V
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025
Harvey's college numbers are pretty astonishing, considering he played in a Power-4 conference and was on rosters mostly devoid of offensive talent. He carried his team on his back to the tune of 6.8 yards per carry and 22 rushing touchdowns in his final season.
RJ Harvey is competing with only (washed) JK Dobbins in one of the most valuable backfields in fantasy.
The 2nd round rookie is explosive (led class in explosive %), elusive (top 5 in MTF/Att), and can catch passes (strong 1.44 YPRR).
Talent + opportunity in Payton’s offense🚀 https://t.co/FCtraMZcjF
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) August 29, 2025
Dobbins wasn't very elusive last season, and despite his overall solid fantasy numbers, he often struggled with inefficiency. Other than his first two games, which were played against teams that played very poor run defense, his rushing averages were lackluster.
J.K. Dobbins averaged 4 or less yards per carry in 8 of his 13 regular season games last year. He started off hot against two awful run defenses, then faded pretty hard. Then, he wasn't signed by a team until June. I still think RJ Harvey goes off in 2025. Dobbins is not great. pic.twitter.com/Xuicu0P7FX
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 17, 2025
That doesn't mean Dobbins couldn't have a solid season, but there's little reason to think Payton will keep his second-round pick off the field for an inefficient veteran for most of the season. Harvey's path to a big workload is pretty clear.
And playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL should work wonders for Harvey, allowing him to reach massive heights. It's hard to finish as the RB1 overall, but a prospect of his caliber on a team with a great offensive line and one of the best offensive play designers in NFL history seems like a recipe for success to me.
Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
When it comes to the debate of the eventual RB1, it's massively important to consider overall volume. Volume is the most important thing driving running back success. Obviously, a team doesn't often give a terrible running back a massive amount of volume, but even players who lack talent who are handed huge workloads often succeed in fantasy football.
If Tuten isn't given a ton of touches early on, it will be hard for him to finish as the RB1 overall. In general, though, when talking about rookie players, you should expect part of their season to be pretty disappointing overall. Just look at Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving in 2024.
Despite his RB13 overall finish and five finishes in the top-10 weekly scoring RBs from Weeks 10-18, Irving got off to a slow start. And Tuten technically has two running backs ahead of him on the depth chart. It's possible they still play at a competent level. But if Tuten starts getting a big workload, he should absolutely smash.
The Jaguars offensive line hasn't played very well in years. Bhayshul Tuten's ability to force missed tackles in the backfield and burst to beat linebackers to the edge is highly underrated. Dude played behind a Swiss cheese OL and still made explosive plays pic.twitter.com/FCcyKotqhD
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 27, 2025
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen ran one of the league's best offenses last season. With the Bucs, he engineered an offense that ranked fifth in yards per pass attempt and third in yards per rush. His schemes were massive in opening up gigantic holes in the run game for Irving to run through.
On plays that are blocked well, the most potential you have for the most yards possible is logically achieved by giving the ball to the fastest player. That happens to be Tuten, who ran a historically elite 4.32-second 40-yard dash at 206 pounds. His time ties for the fourth-fastest in combine history with Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane.
Bhayshul Tuten's 40-yard dash compared to Saquon and Jahmyr Gibbs. pic.twitter.com/Fz385zX3cU
— Nash Henry (@NashJagsNats22) April 26, 2025
Drafting historically elite athletes who went to teams with great offensive coordinators is a sound, winning strategy that makes sense to employ. Even if that player isn't an insane athlete, if they have a clear edge in burst over their backfield mates, it's reasonable to expect them to get at least a solid share of touches.
Additionally, Coen didn't bring in either Travis Etienne Jr. or Tank Bigsby. They're players from a previous regime. Coen traded up to take Tuten in the fourth round after reportedly being interested in Denver Broncos RB Harvey, signifying that Coen is interested in bringing in his own players.
Nothing to see here, just Bhayshul Tuten and Jahmyr Gibbs having the vision and explosiveness to return kickoffs 98-99 yards for touchdowns in college. The list of running backs who are 200+ pounds and can do this is very small pic.twitter.com/75huBVrG6T
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 28, 2025
You need to swing for the fences in fantasy football. If you want to win, you should take good players on good offenses with outlier-ish traits wherever you can find them. Tuten is available for basically free in drafts -- unless you're in a league with me, of course. I always reach for him.
There's a conversation to be had about how long it will take for him to earn a bigger role. I'd expect that by midseason, he starts getting very significant touches. Players like Tuten have an easier time commanding bigger roles because they can make huge, explosive plays with their elite athleticism.
Why is Bhayshul Tuten my RB1? In addition to being an elite athlete, he does some things that I really like running backs to do:
-Breaks tackles
-Eludes tackles
-Carries tacklers with him
-Slips tackles
-Powers through tackles pic.twitter.com/Tj9BjW6GHN— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 28, 2025
It's not like he's lacking in other areas, either. NFL running backs need to play with grit and toughness. They need to be elusive and fight through tackles for extra yards. That's exactly what Tuten does. He has the potential to be the league's highest scoring running back in the game he gets enough volume for it.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Pollard's 2024 was fraught with issues. He played on one of the worst offenses in the NFL with one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Titans' OL group finished 21st in run block win rate -- admittedly a bit better than their pass protection -- but teams didn't have to worry much about the passing game when facing them.
Quarterbacks Will Levis and Mason Rudolph struggled last season as the starters for the Titans, with Levis in particular being one of the NFL's worst. The Titans couldn't effectively scheme passing plays and had to rely on Pollard to make up for it.
Tough to bring down!
RB Leaders by Total Rushing Yards After Contact [2024]
1. Derrick Henry (854)
2. Saquon Barkley (780)
3. Josh Jacobs (776)
4. Bijan Robinson (772)
5. Tony Pollard (718)
6. Chuba Hubbard (676)
7. Kyren Williams (662) pic.twitter.com/FsuHkphKUY— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 14, 2025
Pollard was one of the NFL's best backs at picking up yards after contact. And he was often contacted before the line of scrimmage. Among all RBs with 100 or more attempts, he ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt (2.76) despite his team only giving him 1.39 yards before contact per attempt, which ranked 37th.
Pollard wasn't highly effective at forcing missed tackles, but his explosiveness was still on display. He's one of the NFL's fastest running backs, and solid improvements on the offensive line and in the passing game could help him in a huge way.
Additionally, his backup RB, Tyjae Spears (ankle), has battled with injuries so far in the NFL and is currently on injured reserve. Pollard's ADP is quite low, thanks to his production dipping due to injury issues late last season, but he's fully healthy now. And the Titans might be forced to give him a huge workload.
Jarquez Hunter, RB, Los Angeles Rams
A lot would have to change immediately for Hunter to be the overall RB1. However, as is the argument with Tuten, RB is a very volume-dependent position. Hunter would obviously need a ton of work to put up a big fantasy point finish.
But Hunter's college production, efficiency, and tape (in my opinion) all outshine those of both Rams running backs ahead of him on the depth chart right now, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. And it really isn't close -- Hunter absolutely dusts them in many categories.
Jarquez Hunter college splits inside/outside the tackles with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum pic.twitter.com/3lAqYYAAvo
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 26, 2025
Hunter was better at gaining yards after contact, creating explosive plays, forcing missed tackles, and was a more efficient rusher than both Williams and Corum. Rams head coach Sean McVay stated during the draft, on camera, that Hunter was his favorite of all the Day 3 2025 NFL Draft prospects.
So the team traded up for him. The Rams offense played well last season, but they had one absolutely massive glaring weakness -- a lack of explosivity in the rushing game. The Rams were second only to the Chiefs as the worst team at creating explosive plays on the ground in the NFL.
Explosive play rate is an underrated driver of changes on offense. Here are the least explosive rushing teams in 2024.
Rams: Drafted Jarquez Hunter
Cowboys: Drafted Jaydon Blue
Raiders: Drafted Ashton Jeanty
Vikings: Signed Jordan Mason
Jets: Lol
Chiefs: Signed Brashard Smith pic.twitter.com/krqo4pRXIP— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 29, 2025
In the above post and the thread it contains, I try to convince you that explosive play rate is massively important. Teams seem to think so. Most of the teams with the worst explosive rush rates last season made real efforts to add explosive running backs to their backfields.
How will these teams address their issues of creating big plays on the ground with the personnel they had last season? That seems unlikely to happen. Instead, it makes more sense to get the new players on the team involved -- those who can help solve the problems.
Hunter has a real path to just take over this backfield in 2025. The Rams have one of the most valuable RB1 roles in the league -- one that's helped Williams put up huge numbers, despite not being elusive last season -- just 0.13 forced missed tackles per carry, the equivalent of Javonte Williams.
Jarquez Hunter is both highly elusive, with nifty moves to dodge defenders, and a massive physical force when he needs to be. It's a rare combination. He combines great technique with his power, planting his feet and driving all his power to his side to run over a defender. pic.twitter.com/Y59gdO1iS0
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 25, 2025
The real possibility of Hunter becoming a high-volume back in 2025 is mostly flying under the radar. But according to my analysis, he has massive upside. For players you pick in the late rounds, you'd rather have them either do nothing or put up huge numbers anyway!
