RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Marc Leishman held off pursuers on Sunday at the Farmers Insurance Open, closing the final round with a seven-under 65. The Aussie gained an astronomical 4.7 strokes putting during his fourth round, helping him to find the winner's circle after connecting on only three of 14 fairways on the day.
Leishman proved to be a bargain for those on DraftKings at only $8,300 and went slightly under the radar with his 11.5% ownership for GPP events.
As far as this article is concerned, we positively highlighted top-10 finishers Marc Leishman, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau but did miscalculate on Xander Schauffele and Rickie Fowler along the way. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
Farmers Insurance Open - PGA DFS Overview
TPC Scottsdale
7,266 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda
Perhaps no other event deserves to be played on the same weekend as the Super Bowl more than the Waste Management Open. TPC Scottsdale provides the ultimate party-like atmosphere for both the spectators and players and will be a much-needed getaway for sports fans after last week's devastating NBA news.
A 7,266-yard Par 71, TPC Scottsdale is a relatively easy course by PGA Tour standards. Right around 16-under par has been the average winning total for the past six years, and most of the scoring can be found on the back nine holes -- which helps to add to the wild experience of the event. The par-three 16th hole will garner a lot of attention this week because of the loud environment and football-like atmosphere, but it only grades out ninth in terms of difficulty. Instead, the tournament will likely be won or lost on holes 13, 15 and 17. Thirteen and 15 are par-fives that yield close to a 40 percent birdie rate, and the par-four 17th is the ultimate decider. Measuring only 332 yards and surrounded by water on the left side, both eagle and bogey are possible depending on the quality of the drive.
Water does come into play occasionally in other places at the venue, but most of the hazards can be easily avoided off the tee. The rough is relatively non-existent, and a little extra distance off the tee won't hurt. Par-five scoring will be essential since all three feature nearly a 40 percent birdie rate, and golfers that give themselves quality looks should be rewarded. However, the most crucial statistic that I will be pinpointing is ball striking. TPC Scottsdale is a ball-strikers course, which is evident by Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama (X2) being the last four winners at this event.
Let's take a look at the stats:
|
Stat |
TPC Scottsdale |
Tour Average |
|
Driving Distance |
296 |
283 |
|
Driving Accuracy |
57% |
61% |
|
GIR Percentage |
66% |
65% |
|
Scrambling Percentage |
59% |
57% |
|
Average Three-Putts Per Round |
0.53 |
0.54 |
The last three seasons have seen one-under par as the total needed to make the cut. I assume we see that hold rather steady, although a strong case could be made for even-par with the new rule in place of top-65 and ties.
In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 6/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas at 9/1, Webb Simpson at 14/1, Hideki Matsuyama at 14/1, Rickie Fowler at 16/1 and Xander Schauffele at 18/1. Fowler is your defending champion of the event, and Gary Woodland, who is 28/1 this season, was your winner here in 2018.
Key Stats
- Ball Striking 20%
- Strokes Gained Approach 20%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 15%
- Birdie or Better 12.5%
- Par-Four Average 12.5%
- Proximity 150+ Yard 10%
- Driving Distance 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Jon Rahm ($11,400) - The culmination of Jon Rahm's performance in La Jolla mixed with his Arizona State background for college has the Spaniard leading the way on DraftKings. Rahm's four consecutive top-16 finishes here should bode well for his success this weekend, but this is still an extremely hefty price tag to face. I probably won't have much Rahm because of his salary and large ownership projection, but it isn't as if he is a bad play on the surface.
Justin Thomas ($11,200) - Justin Thomas was my selection to win here last season and remains a credible choice in 2020. The American hasn't always fared well at TPC Scottsdale in the past, missing the cut in 2016 and 2017, but Thomas' third-place showing here last season does make him the man to beat in my eyes. If I am paying up at the very top of the board, Thomas is my preferred route over Rahm, but there is a prudent case to be made that avoiding both could end up being the sensible route.
Rickie Fowler ($10,500) - There is no arguing that you are spending up for Rickie Fowler's pristine course history at TPC Scottsdale if you do decide to roster him in Arizona. Fowler has provided four straight top-11 finishes, which includes a victory here last season, but I do believe there are some concerns around him. Ranked 63rd compared to the field in birdies or better gained and 64th in strokes gained approach over his past 50 rounds, Fowler's biggest perk will come down to the fact that he should be the lowest owned option of everyone priced above $10,000 on DraftKings. That is good enough for me to sprinkle him in here and there, but the same sort of success can be had for even cheaper down the board.
Webb Simpson ($10,300) - Webb Simpson's current form will garner respect and support on DFS sites, but it might be his history in Phoenix that will get most overlooked as to the reason we see another quality performance. If we exclude Simpson's aberrational missed cut here in 2018, the 11th-ranked player in the world has provided six straight top-20 showings at TPC Scottsdale. Add to that great form and his solid statistical acumen for the venue, and it will make it challenging to fade Simpson this weekend.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,100) - Hideki Matsuyama's irons have been legendary at this tournament over the years. It has helped him to post two victories and three additional top-15 results, and there is a strong argument to be made that the Japanese sensation is the safest cash-game option on the DraftKings slate. However, those past finishes will bring with him a high ownership percentage from the public, and I'd be tempted to deviate a little outside the box in large-field contests. I'm not going to talk anyone off of playing Matsuyama and will probably have him sporadically thrown into lineups myself, but I'd be curious to see just how popular he is before biting in hook, line and sinker.
Mid-To-Low-Priced DFS Players
Xander Schauffele ($9,900) - Xander Schauffele is the ultimate x-factor in Arizona. Most DFS participants tend to either pay up or down when it comes to their lineups, and it seems likely that Schauffele will be in the same boat again, with some players deciding to bypass him on the board. To me, his $9,900 price tag will generate a little more buzz than usual, but I love the prospects of rostering the ninth-ranked player in the world at a reduced value.
Tony Finau ($9,600) - It is hard to understand why Tony Finau has missed four consecutive cuts at this tournament. Maybe it is the raucous environment that doesn't suit his mellow tone, but despite the statistical advantages he should be able to display at a venue such as TPC Scottsdale, it hasn't worked for one reason or another. Finau is going to possess low ownership because of his failed past attempts, but there isn't an obvious answer on what to do with him from a lineup perspective. There is some merit in attempting to leverage ownership, but it could turn into a similar situation that we saw last weekend with Rickie Fowler at Torrey Pines. I'd advise proceeding with caution, but a low-owned Finau isn't something we find often.
Gary Woodland ($9,300) - This feels like an excellent bounce-back spot for Gary Woodland. Bad chalk selections from the week prior are generally interesting spots to target if you can roster the player at a marginally respectable ownership percentage, and Woodland's roughly 12% forecast should give us that opportunity at a tournament he has won at in the past.
Collin Morikawa ($9,200) - I think we are beginning to approach the time where we might not see Collin Morikawa under $10,000 very often moving forward. Morikawa has made all 17 cuts since turning pro in 2019 and looks to be a steal at $9,200. His cheap price tag will inflate his ownership, but this is one of those situations where I don't mind eating some chalk because his salary is just too low.
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100) - Bryson DeChameabu checks most of the boxes I am looking for this weekend, but there are two glaring issues I have when it comes to rostering him on DraftKings. For starters, a quick turnaround from Dubai to Phoenix isn't ideal, and perhaps even more importantly, the rowdy crowd will surely be getting on his case about his propensity to play slowly. I'm not sure DeChambeau handles public scrutiny well, and I'm going to avoid him in most scenarios, even if the statistics say otherwise.
Sungjae Im ($8,800) - Similar to Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im is a player that is quickly rising through the ranks and may not be seen in this range for much longer. Im struggled with his putter at Torrey Pines, but I believe a lot of his issues can be chalked up to the bumpy Poa grass. Bermuda puts him back on his preferred surface, making him a popular sleeper to take down the title.
Matthew Wolff ($8,000) - Matthew Wolff flirted with the top of the leaderboard during his PGA Tour debut here last season but was eventually unable to keep his momentum rolling with one-over rounds on both Saturday and Sunday. Wolff's aggressiveness off the tee should give him an advantage since the rough isn't penal, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him make another run up the leaderboard in his second try.
Byeong Hun An ($7,600) - It is not as if Byeong Hun An hasn't had his chances to start 2019. Quickstarts at the American Express and Farmers Insurance Open have been negated by horrible stretches of golf, especially on the putting greens. TPC Scottsdale should neutralize some of the putting disadvantages that he faces weekly, and it won't hurt to get him back to Bermuda.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,300) - After missing the cut in La Jolla, Emiliano Grillo has seen the fourth-largest decrease in DraftKings pricing from golfers that played both events. I chalk the majority of Grillo's woes up to Torrey Pines not being an ideal fit for his game and believe we are getting a discount that warrants substantial consideration at an event that is known to offset the flat stick.
Adam Hadwin ($7,200) - We haven't seen Adam Hadwin play since the RSM Classic in November, but I was surprised to see the Canadian grade out 14th for me in my stat model. Led mostly by his long irons, ball striking and birdie making skills, Hadwin could be an under the radar play for GPP contests.
Kevin Chappell ($6,500) - Admittingly, I keep searching for Kevin Chappell to turn things around at one of these events. It has yet to materialize in that fashion, but I do consider the American to be an interesting pivot away from Doc Redman in GPPs. I am not opposed to the idea of also playing Redman in spots, but I am willing to make a small investment that Chappell can turn his game around at a birdie venue that might reward his distance.
Troy Merritt ($6,300) - Troy Merritt graded out phenomenally well for me in my model, ranking 29th overall. That was the highest of any player below $7,000 in price, and his less than one percent projected ownership makes me extremely interested in using him for a handful of GPP builds.
