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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for the first week of bowl games, December 17 through December 21, 2024. Who will win the first games of the expanded college football playoff?
We have 10 games in this first week of bowl season, including the first four games of the expanded college football playoff. Does it make for better games early on in bowl season? Yes. Do we need three-loss teams with a chance for a championship? Not a chance.
I closed out the regular season strong, going 8-2 in Championship Week and the Army/Navy game. The first bowl bet was sabotaged by a plethora of South Alabama opt-outs. Make sure to keep a close eye on that. This is the most up-to-date site I've found so far. If I change any picks, I will try to update on X and in this article. Things get weird when you are picking games a week in advance in the age of opt-outs and the transfer portal.
These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bet more than you can afford. This is supposed to be for fun and excitement. I may be under .500 on the season, but I'm having a blast and am still up some real money.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 1 Bowl Games (12/17 Through 12/21 2024)
I will pick every college football game every week. It's not a top-5. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game, average them out at all the Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(25) Memphis (-2.5) vs. West Virginia at Frisco, TX (Tuesday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
A lot of Mountaineers are already gone with the dismissal of Neal Brown. Memphis is mostly intact (for now, at least). They will have Mario Anderson Jr. and Seth Henigan for this game. That's more than enough.
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (-7.5) at Boca Raton, FL (Wednesday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both starting quarterbacks transferred, and the Hilltoppers lost the next two quarterbacks on the depth chart as well. I get why this is such a heavy swing for the Dukes, but I feel this might be a low-scoring and ugly game. I feel better about the under 51.5. I'll take the Dukes for continuity purposes, but I'm probably leaving this alone.
California (-3.5) vs. (24) UNLV at Inglewood, CA (Wednesday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The @unlvfootball Depth Chart for the @LABowlGame #UNLVFB pic.twitter.com/yrapG76e8K
— Tony Cordasco (@TonyDasco) December 16, 2024
Even though head coach Barry Odom took the Purdue job, Hajj-Malik Williams and Ricky White III are finishing their careers as Rebels. We may see a few UNLV guys opt out, but I would be surprised if they did it before the bowl game...at least the ones who plan on following Odom to Purdue.
Cal will reportedly have Jaydn Ott, but starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza and WR2 Nyziah Hunter are gone. I'm not sure why this line is still tipped in Cal's favor. I'm betting on UNLV unless Williams or White opt out.
Georgia Southern (-6.5) vs. Sam Houston at New Orleans, LA (Thursday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's a short(ish) trip for the Bearkats, but with coach K.C. Keeler taking the Temple job, a lot of Sam Houston's players have already left. No starters for the Eagles are out (yet), so this feels easy. I like Sam Houston, but they're not overcoming a horde of transfers. Give me the Eagles.
Ohio (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville State at Orlando, FL (Friday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As the Cure Bowl draws closer, the main story is of obviously the new Head Coaches for both teams. However, what may affect JSU just as much is what they have already lost to the portal on the defensive side of the ball. Jax State has seen 6 players from that side of the ball…
— State of the Gamecocks (@JaxStateSOTG) December 15, 2024
Both coaches are gone, so the MAC vs. Conference USA Champions game loses a lot of luster. This game isn't until Friday, so expect a few more opt-outs by then. Ohio has a little more depth (and Anthony Tyus III is likely playing). I'll take the Bobcats as of now. If Tyus sits, I'll re-evaluate.
Tulane vs. Florida (-12.5) at Tampa, FL (Friday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has jumped with the news of Darian Mensah transferring to Duke. I liked Florida anyway since the Gators will have most of their starters. I'm still taking the Gators, but backing off of the amount a little bit. I was prepared for a max bet here, but Tulane is still a solid team even without Mensah. Part of me thinks this line moved too far.
(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame (-7.5) (Friday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't expect a close game. I expect Notre Dame to win big or Indiana to win big. This doesn't feel like an in-between game. Both teams are very well-coached. This is the game that the state of Indiana needed, but they would never admit that fact. I like Indiana, but I'm probably not betting on this one. It's too close to call.
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State (-8.5) (Saturday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels kind of low. SMU hasn't faced a defense like this, and Drew Allar doesn't beat himself. This SMU team had issues with turnovers at times this year. I hope the Ponies show up and play well to prove they belong here, but I think Penn State eventually pulls away.
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas (-11.5) (Saturday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Two of Clemson's three losses are to SEC teams. We still don't really know how good Texas is. I'm nervous about betting on the Longhorns. I don't think Clemson gets covered, but I'm not that confident they won't, either.
(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State (-7.5) (Saturday)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vegas expects a seven-point game. If you take the -7.5, it's an even bet. That means they're trying to get more action on that half-point. I'm not even sure it will be that close. I feel more confident in Tennessee winning outright than losing by more than a touchdown.
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