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BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 250

CURRENT ADP: ~280 overall

ANALYSISPaddack has been a popular player in dynasty/keeper leagues and why not? He’s produced outstanding minor league numbers when healthy, is near-MLB-ready, and he has the stuff to be a mid-rotation arm or better. As of the writing of this piece, the young hurler had produced outstanding numbers in spring training (yes, I know it’s just spring training) with 14 strikeouts and just two walks in 8.2 innings. The innings total also represents the third-highest total of innings behind Matt Strahm and Joey Lucchesi so the club is clearly taking a long look at the rookie hurler as it looks to field a competitive team and capitalize on the acquisition of Manny Machado. And the current in-house options for the rotation are both modest and unproven after Lucchesi. 

The key ingredient in Paddack’s recipe for success is a plus-plus changeup that he mixes exceptionally well with his low-to-mid-90s heater. His breaking ball is a distant third offering and increased success with the pitch could turn him into a top-of-the-rotation stud. The right-hander has a great pitcher’s frame and his 6-4 frame creates downward plane, leading to above-average ground-ball rates. Paddack, 23, has an outstanding feel for pitching which shows up in above-average command and control.

The biggest question mark with Paddack will be the number of innings he’ll be able to contribute in 2019. After returning from Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss all of 2017, he threw just 90 innings last year. A reasonable bump in innings would put him around 120-130 innings as last year’s total represented a career high. That means it makes sense if the Padres feel he’s MLB ready to have him use his bullets at the MLB level rather than start out in the minors and pitch more or less meaningless innings there.


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