It's Trade Deadline time, but I can't analyze lineup spots or roles resulting from trades that haven't happened yet. So, I'll save that for next week.

I also promised myself I'd cover Dee Gordon upon his return from the stupidity suspension list, which happened this past Thursday. I also resolved to pair him with fellow speedsters such as Billy Hamilton and Jonathan Villar. So, lets see who we can trust to generate SBs for our fantasy teams moving forward.

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The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Dee Gordon (2B, MIA)

Gordon seems to have missed the point of performance enhancing drugs, as his performance over his first 101 PAs this year has not met expectations. After leading the NL in batting average last year, Gordon has declined to .255/.277/.327 this year. The sample is small enough that it could just be noise, but almost nothing in his profile is trending in the right direction.

While no one should have expected last year's .383 BABIP to repeat, this year's .313 mark is well off even Gordon's .344 career average. I want to say that it will spike back up, but the decrease is supported by a much higher FB% (18.7% last year, 27.3% this) and IFFB% (3.2% to 14.3%). His LD% is also down to 19.5% from 21.3% last year. Gordon's career norms and the stat's fickle nature lead me to conclude that the liners will come back, but I am less confident in the grounders. Gordon's current BABIP probably represents his floor, but it may not be enough for Gordon to matter in some formats.

Gordon almost never walks, posting a 3.8% BB% last year and a 3% rate so far this year. His 37.5% O-Swing% last year and 36% chase rate this year suggest that this is not changing anytime soon. As a result, he is especially dependent on his BABIP to get aboard and swipe a bag for his fantasy owners. Should the indicators above become the new standard, Gordon would barely be rosterable in leagues with a MI slot.

It is a small sample, but Gordon's K% has also increased from 13.9% last year to 17.8% this campaign. The change is supported by a SwStr% spike (6.1% last year to 8.8% this), in turn fueled by a decrease in both O-Contact% (78.9% to 71.4%) and Z-Contact% (93.7% to 88.8%). Plate discipline metrics are the fastest to stabilize, though it should be noted that this does not mean a new trend with 100% certainty. It does bear watching moving forward, however.

Gordon returned to his familiar leadoff spot in his first game back, his only game back as of this writing. The idea that Derek Dietrich's strong performance filling in for Gordon would relegate the latter to a bench role is ludicrous, as batting champions do not lose their jobs to utility guys. Even if Gordon stinks the rest of the year, the Marlins will play him - health and rules permitting.

Gordon has six steals against two CS this year. His current .277 OBP limits his opportunities, but there is no reason to suspect he will not run with reckless abandon again, should the opportunity present itself. All of the trends above are in tiny samples, and he has a solid floor as the leadoff hitter for a competent offense. Picking him up for free is a good move, but I wouldn't pay for his name value in a trade. There are a few too many troubling signs here.

Verdict: Chump

 
Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN)

If Hamilton ever won a batting title, he would probably steal 100+ bases. Sadly he won't, as his .253/.300/.349 line this year represents a step up from his recent performance levels. He has 34 swipes in 39 tries, a rate perfectly in keeping with his reputation. If Hamilton hits at all, he runs. The only question is whether he can hit enough for the SBs to have fantasy value.

At first glance, Hamilton's .313 BABIP seems perfectly reasonable considering his elite speed. He has even improved his GB% (42.6% to 45.8%), as so many fans and experts alike have called for him to do. However, his .343 BABIP on ground balls may be too high to sustain, even for him. His career ground ball BABIP is .289, for comparison. He also sports a 22.2% LD%, a number that nothing in Hamilton's profile suggests he can maintain.

The above masks a number of negative indicators for Hamilton's future BABIP. He never hits the ball with any authority, somehow managing a .605 career BABIP on line drives. Despite the spike in LD%, they're even worse this year with a .542 mark. His .089 career BABIP on flies is laughable, a number made even worse (.077) by an 11.8% IFFB% this season. If the LD% falls back to career levels and even a few more grounders turn into outs, he's back to hitting .220.

Hamilton is also striking out more this year, but I do not think this is cause for concern. The increase in K% (16.5% to 19.7%) is far more than the increase in SwStr% (7.2% to 7.6%) really supports. The increased SwStr% is also rooted entirely in pitches outside of the zone, as a 72.5% O-Contact% last year is down to 64.6% this year. By contrast, his Z-Contact% is actually up slightly. I frequently say that contact on pitches outside of the hitting zone is usually bad for the hitter, but Hamilton's general lack of batted ball authority may make it even more important for him to avoid it.

Pitchers really do not want to walk Hamilton, but he still manages a league average rate thanks to a sterling 25.6% O-Swing%. BBs can lead to SBs, presenting Hamilton with opportunities that a guy like Gordon never gets. The fact that Hamilton seldom swings at bad pitches also makes it easier to overlook the declining O-Contact% noted above.

Hamilton has bounced around the batting order this year, but has exclusively hit either first or second since the Fourth of July. Hamilton's best asset is a counting stat, so fantasy owners should welcome the increased PAs with open arms. I have no idea who is going to try and drive in runs in the middle of Cincinnati's order next week, but they will probably be better than the pitchers and filler players at the bottom of the order.

So, what to do with Hamilton? In roto leagues where you need SB and point leagues that favor steals, Hamilton's one trick makes him very valuable. If you do not need SB, charge a premium to a rival that does. Alternatively, trade him to somebody else that can take points away from a rival in the SB category. Your standings page really dictates the proper course with Hamilton, making a traditional Champ or Chump designation difficult. I'll call him a champ, mostly because I like the style he (as well as Gordon and Villar) brings to the game.

Verdict: Champ

 
Jonathan Villar (SS, MIL)

Finally someone with a fantasy friendly line! Villar has a .297/.379/.437 triple slash line with eight dingers, numbers that would work for a fantasy SS even if he didn't have 36 SB. Add the steals into the equation and you have one of the most valuable fantasy assets thus far. He did come out of nowhere, though. Is this real?

Lets start with the speed. Villar's professional high in SBs is 39 in 2012, but that is a misleading number because he attained them in only 377 PAs. At face value it looks like Villar is at his upside, but his minor league numbers suggest 50+ SBs as a real possibility with everyday PAs. Going 36 for 48 is an acceptable 75% success rate on SB attempts, and he was even better in limited MLB time before this season. The speed seems sustainable.

The batting average is propped up by a .400 BABIP, a number likely too high to sustain. Villar has a ton of speed and a very high GB% (57%), so he projects as a plus BABIP guy. Indeed, his .352 career BABIP is about as high as a career BABIP can get, and his minors history is littered with high numbers. The difference between his prior work and this year is an elevated LD% of 22.5%, a number likely to regress moving forward.

Regression is in order, but remember that regression only means true talent performance going forward. Put another way, we don't expect a .300 BABIP over the rest of the year to bring his season total to his .350ish career average, but rather a .350ish BABIP because that is his career average. The final BABIP figures to remain quite lofty, something in the .375 range. Next season and beyond, he figures to return to the .350 range.

Any hits he loses to the regression monster should be made up for by a lower K%. Villar is currently striking out 26% of the time, a rate too high to expect a strong batting average. His 26.8% career K% suggests we trust his current rate. Yet SwStr% does not agree. Earlier in his career Villar had SwStr% numbers that supported a very high K%, like a 13.8% rate in 2014. His current 10.1% SwStr% suggests a league average K% of around 21%, though, and he brought it down to 22.7% with a similar SwStr% in limited action (128 PAs) last season. The Ks should drop.

That prediction is predicated on his low SwStr% and a real knowledge of the zone. Like Hamilton, Villar has a skill set that pitchers do not want to walk. His BB% has still increased to 11.7% this year thanks to an excellent 23.7% O-Swing%. Dee Gordon has elite BABIP history, but never walks. Billy Hamilton walks, but has a hard time maintaining a decent BABIP. Villar looks to offer both a willingness to walk and strong average numbers, giving him more SB opportunities than either. He isn't quite as efficient, but the raw steals total should favor him due to opportunity alone.

The Brew Crew is bad, but Villar is entrenched in their leadoff spot. Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun are both legitimate hitters, so Villar's run totals should be on a par with players on good teams. There is a chance either gets traded, but Lucroy's asking price is reportedly high while Braun is expensive and carries PED baggage. There is at least some chance neither is moved.

Villar's sustainable ability to post plus BABIPs, willingness to run, and favorable lineup slot combine to make Villar an excellent bet to maintain borderline elite production. If all else fails, Villar is hitting .556 on bunts this year. The power seems like a mirage with a low 20.5% FB% and high 17.6% IFFB%, but otherwise this is a breakout I believe in.

Verdict: Champ

 

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