X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Tyler O'Neill and Juan Soto

It seems like we're far enough into the season for the minor leagues to stop pumping out shiny new toys for fantasy owners to play with, yet the hits keep on coming. Nineteen-year old Juan Soto is the latest blue chip prospect to make an MLB debut, and the hype surrounding him is roughly equivalent to some sort of divine entity. His raw talent is incredible, but it might be impossible to meet the expectations the fantasy community has for him.

Tyler O'Neill of the St. Louis Cardinals is slightly older (age 22), and he has certainly made the most of his first 26 MLB plate appearances. He could be a threat on the bases as well, though his running game hasn't been spotted in the majors yet.

If your team is in need of upside, you have no shortage of options. Let's take a more nuanced look at the players mentioned above.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Tyler O'Neill (OF, STL) - 39% Owned

O'Neill has a .348/.385/.783 triple slash line through his first 26 MLB PAs, paying immediate dividends to owners who picked him up early. His 30.8% K% and 3.8% BB% suggest that regression could be ugly, but his minor league history supports the idea of O'Neill as a useful fantasy player.

O'Neill first cracked the High Minors in 2016 with Seattle's then Double-A affiliate, the Jackson Generals. He more than held his own as a 20-year old, slashing .293/.374/.508 with 24 HR and 12 steals (against two CS) in 575 PAs. His BABIP (.364) and K% (26.1%) were both high, but he proved that he knew how to lift the ball (45.9% FB%) while earning his fair share of walks (10.8%). His home park probably helped inflate his BABIP (1.017 ballpark factor for hits from 2014-2016) while muting some of his power (0.856).

It was a solid performance that earned him a shot at Triple-A Tacoma. He gained power at the cost of batting average, slashing .244/.328/.479 with 19 HR and nine steals (two CS) over 396 PAs. His BABIP normalized (.295) while he continued to walk (11.1% BB%) and strikeout (27.3% K%) at high rates. His FB% fell slightly (42.4%), but his power output improved thanks to a HR/FB spike (14.9% at Double-A, 19% at Tacoma). Tacoma suppresses BABIP (0.859 park factor) while inflating HR totals (1.027), explaining some of the difference in his results.

The Cardinals acquired O'Neill in exchange for pitcher Marco Gonzalez partway through the 2017 season, giving the former 161 PAs at Triple-A Memphis. He continued the trends begun at Tacoma, slashing .253/.304/.548 with an impressive 12 HR and five steals for the Cardinals organization. His FB% (45.6%) and HR/FB (25.5%) spiked dramatically, while his BABIP (.266) and BB% (6.2%) fell sharply. Memphis is a pitcher's park in terms of HR (0.950 park factor) and BABIP (0.829), making his power output more impressive.

The sample was small enough to ignore, but O'Neill did it again to start 2018. He slashed .319/.333/.708 with 13 long balls and a steal in 120 PAs, raising his FB% to a ridiculous 52.3% while maintaining his HR/FB gains (28.9%). He got his BABIP (.307) above .300 for the first time since Double-A in 2016 while cutting his K% (23.3%) and BB% (2.5%). If nothing else, he earned his shot at the Show.

He always brought at least average plate discipline to the table before this season, so there is hope that he can walk more often moving forward. His minor league SB success rates and Statcast Sprint Speed (28 ft./sec) suggest that he has a running game, and consistently high FB% and HR/FB marks on the farm suggest real power potential as well. He might be a batting average drag if he keeps striking out, but 30 HR and 15 SB  are worth a .250 average.

Verdict: Champ

Juan Soto (OF, WAS) - 65% Owned

Soto is the proud owner of nine MLB PAs, slashing .500/.667/.1.000 in the small sample. At age 19, "small sample" is a term that accurately describes every stop he's ever had. As a result, he's a total wild card for 2018 production.

Soto's numbers have been impressive on the farm, but he posted BABIPs and HR/FB ratios that aren't even close to sustainable at every stop. His .323/.400/.581 line at Double-A this season (35 PAs) was rooted in a .364 BABIP and 20% HR/FB. His .340 BABIP at High-A (73 PAs) was lower than his Double-A number, but a ludicrous 38.9% HR/FB allowed Soto to slash .371/.466/.790 with seven bombs anyway. He began the year at A-ball, where he slashed .373/.486/.814 with five homers over 74 PAs on the back of a .405 BABIP and 31.3% HR/FB.

Soto's minor league history before this season was similar. He slashed .360/.427/.523 with three homers at A-ball last season (96 PAs) thanks to a .373 BABIP and 15.8% HR/FB. He actually compiled 183 PAs at rookie league in 2016, slashing .361/.410/.550 with five homers, a BABIP of .403, and 11.1% HR/FB.

Numbers like those are impressive and warrant attention, but they don't guarantee that Soto is ready for immediate stardom. For one thing, the kid has never struggled at any level. Slumps are inevitable in MLB, and Soto has no experience with failure. How he handles it is currently a complete unknown.

The defense Soto saw at A-ball simply does not compare to what he'll experience in Washington, to say nothing of the competent pitching and expertly manicured fields free of BABIP-inflating debris. This is why analysis of Low Minors seasons is generally avoided wherever possible.

Baseball is often described as a game of adjustments, but Soto has never stayed at one level long enough for opposing pitchers to see him multiple times. This means that he has no experience making counter-adjustments, forcing him to learn against the best adjusters in the world.

Soto is still raw, and many of his peripheral stats suggest that he hasn't learned how to maximize his physical gifts yet. Outside of his 41.7% FB% at Double-A this year, here are his FB% marks for all of the partial seasons cited above: 34%, 34.8%, 24.4%, and 32.4%. Nobody runs HR/FB rates in excess of 30% in the major leagues, so Soto needs to lift the ball to produce the power numbers expected of him. Can he do it without compromising another aspect of his game?

Likewise, Soto is 9-for-14 in SB attempts on the farm. That's a success rate of 64%, not high enough to justify running for a contender at the MLB level. Owners may be expecting some speed from the wunderkind, but he doesn't yet know how to pick his spots.

Finally, we need to consider the very real possibility that the Nationals send him back to the minor leagues. The team is currently facing the prospect of losing Bryce Harper to free agency at age 26 because they called him up as a teenager. The slightest slump once the team gets healthy will provide all of the smokescreen the team needs to play service time games.

In short, Juan Soto is either Mike Trout or a bust in 2018. He's great in keeper formats for his long-term potential, but that does not mean he'll reach it this year. If you can trade him for a current star or even a solid guy you can set and forget in redraft leagues, don't hesitate to do it.

Verdict: Chump (in 2018)

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs With Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal With Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
Grayson Murphy

Could Provide Rotational Pass-Rush Depth
Joe Andreessen

in a Good Position to Compete for Backup Job
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Bhayshul Tuten

Needs to Improve Pass Protection
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
EDM

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact With Oilers
SEA

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
PHI

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NYI

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NJ

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
SJ

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF