RADIO
Rory McIlroy (2nd) continues to seek that illusive major that has evaded him for now close to a decade, after rattling off 4 majors by the age of 25, to join only Jack and Tiger to do so. However, the man of the moment, is Wyndham Clark. He embraced immense power off the tee and having only watched the final round, that glorious 3-wood into the par 5 14th hole was as athletic and clutch as big shots in big moments come.
Our guy, Cam Smith, finished 4th, 4 shots behind Clark. He was on our card because he is not shy to putt with a putter that can run 1000 degrees, yet, he managed to take 3 shots from the cabbage on the 6th hole in one of the rounds, with that hole costing him far too many shots throughout the week. Although he finished 4th, he really never had a shot at winning, but we notch another top 5 outright pick and the pursuit of a winner continues.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($10)
We are engaging 8, hoping for the blitz to get to the quarterback come Sunday afternoon.
Max Homa ($2.72 @ +5000 on FanDuel)
The logic here is looking at Homa's recent in isolation of any major golf. He simply seems to malfunction in those kinds of moments. His approach play seems to be moving in the right direction again and we know how good of a putter Homa can be. We are getting somebody who has back-to-back top-10s in his last two starts that were not majors and two wins on the season. At 50-1 this number seems too good to pass up at a course that will require a hot putter to stand a chance. He had some rest over the weekend hanging out with his buddy, JT, who also missed the cut in epic fashion, and hopefully we get some leftover "West Coast Homa" in Connecticut this week.
Si Woo Kim ($2.72 @ +5000 on FanDuel)
If you want to consider the Sony Open a comp course, chalk up a win on one of those for Si Woo this year already. He also has a 4th and a 2nd in his last 5 starts, flirting with the top of the leaderboard in elevated and non-elevated events. Si Woo has the 4th best strokes gained average on easy courses this year and at a course that will require accuracy off the tee (6th) and stellar approach shots from 150-175, Si Woo ranks 6th in proximity from that range this year. He is top 30 in BoB% and enters the week with top 20 form. Sony 2.0 this week Mr. Kim.
Sahith Theegala ($1.92 @ +7000 on Circa)
We have one problem, and one problem only with Sahith Theegala. He is incapable of gaining strokes off the tee right now. He has only gained OTT in 4 of his last 20 rounds, yet has not missed a cut since October of last year. At a course that may force him to leave driver in the bag (we thought we would get this at RBC Canadian, but that was a bloodbath) the rest of his game shines and it shines bright. He is one of the best wedge players in the world, hitting approaches from 100-150 inside of 6 feet at about a 13% rate, which leads this field. Despite a rebellious driver, he still gains the 9th most birdies and is 20th in strokes gained putting L24. If he can barely gain off the tee this week, he will be right in the mix, looking to better his T2 here last year.
Mark Hubbard ($0.86 @ +15000 on FanDuel)
The 3rd best iron player in the field is 150-1? That just seems like a bit of a silly number for somebody who has a T9 at the Charles Schwab and a T6 at the RBC Canadian Open, which could both fall under shorter, more positional courses like this. Hubbard has never missed a cut in his 5 trips to the Travelers, with a T13 in 2021 being his best finish. If we can get the putter to cooperate a little, Hubbards iron play has not lost him strokes since the 3rd round of the PGA Championship 14 rounds ago. He is a shorter hitter, who should be comfortable on this course, entering in tremendous form.
Eric Cole ($0.73 @ +17500 on FanDuel)
Eric Cole is hitting his putts as well as Hubbard is his irons over the last 12 rounds, gaining strokes in every single round. He is also relatively tidy around the greens and has the ability to spike on approach, but seems to lose a stroke on approach in one random round per event. If we can string together 4 solid rounds on approach this week, an improvement on his T6 at the Canadian Open will be a wonderful result for us this week. Lets go from Cole power approach play and keep gassing those irons four rounds, Eric.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($0.46 @ +17500 on FanDuel)
It is only a matter of time until the 10th best iron player over the last 24 rounds and the 14th best putter over the same span, introduce themselves to Christiaan Bezuidenhout's game and decide to work together. The approach play seemed to whittle away a little at the memorial, although he still gained strokes on the week, despite having played 4 consecutive events. He now has had two weeks off to get his iron play dialed back up. My biggest frustration with Bezzy recently is the fact that he once had one of the best around the green games on tour, and now that he has started crushing it with his irons, he has forgotten how to chip. My fellow South African has won multiple times back home and on the DPWT and a win is imminent with the way he is striking his irons lately.
Kevin Yu ($0.35 @ +35000 on FanDuel)
He is playing in his first event after having his torn meniscus repaired, having finished T7 at Pebble Beach in his last event. He has been incredible on approach in the limited events we have seen from him and at 350-1 we will hope for the putter to spike for a few rounds as Yu is also a beast off the tee. He is one of the leading strokes gainers on courses shorter than 7,200 yards and also has the 2nd best proximity on approach from 150-175 in this field. All small samples, but you never know with golfers. They are a bunch of weirdos who do things like win a random event on one and a half function knees.
Andrew Novak ($0.24 @ +50000 on FanDuel)
Having made all of his half-dozen cuts, including two 9th placed finishes, Andrew Novak is ... 500-1 ... what? The disrespect for my guy who shares a name with the all-time Grand Slam winner, Novak Djokovic. Novak's last six rounds on approach have been a little iffy, yet he still managed a T9 in Canada, finding himself in contention on Sunday after three incredible rounds of golf. He had a stretch of 11 rounds spanning the Valero, Mexico, Byron and Charles Schwab where he averaged +1.34 on approach while his putter and short game let him down. He evidently has talent in all areas of the game, just needing to string them together at once. This is the most confidence I have ever had in a 500-1 ticket, as this number is just absurd.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($40)
RBC Canadian Recap
Our placement bets are really starting to find their stride, and hopefully last week being a bad week, we still managed to profit $11.65 with some dead heat rules hurting Cole +170 in T39.
US Open Placements
Last week I mentioned that "Bet365 has recently launched in Iowa and their placement odds are amazing. If we were to use FD and DK etc, Xander would have not met threshold"..... RECORD SCRATCH.... I have now been restricted from betting with them after placing my US Open bets there, which is very disappointing as their odds are incredible for
- Max Homa $5 T20 +210
- Tom Hoge $5 T20 +650 (he T20s 2 of 3 times he T40s)
- Adam Scott $5 T40 +135
- Eric Cole $5 T40 +210
- Emilliano Grillo $5 T40 +190
- Brendon Todd $5 +220
- Kevin Yu $5 +330
- Andrew Novak $5 +410
Matchups ($40)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
US Open recap (1-3-0) -$21.23
Alex Noren somehow had one of his best week's, yet still never made the cut and Seamus landed up losing to him. Justin Rose probably was +6 after R1 and all but ensured we were to have a losing week in this section of the article. Who saw a 35-1 Justin Rose dueling it out with the amateurs for last place at the US Open coming? Harris English landed up beating Sergio which was our only win of the week, but the matchups have been friendly to us lately and we are back for more.
US Open Matchups
We are picking on Shane Lowry again, as he has not eclipsed -9 as a total for a tournament this year. Max and Sahith are two premier birdie makers and should find themselves in double digit under par range if they play as they should. Hayden Buckley is a walking disaster around the greens and has missed his last three cuts, while C.T. Pan's last two starts have been top-5s.
- Theegala over Lowry +100
- Homa over Lowry -129
- C.T. Pan over Buckley -142
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Max Homa $5 Top 10 +450
Two top 10s in his last two non majors. We get +450 for him to do that again. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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