Break The Slate: NFL Wild Card DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks For Sunday 1/10/2021

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Wild Card Weekend. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hello RotoBallers! It's playoff time in the NFL, which means multiple, limited slates. We'll specifically be looking at the DraftKings three-game Sunday slate in this article.

The NFL is ever-evolving week to week and that's especially the case in the playoffs. All of these teams are "good", which means the positional matchups that we want to target will be less obvious and a bit thinner. We'll also need to take player popularity into account, as contrarian thinking can really help us gain leverage on these types of slates. It can all be a little "tougher" than the normal DFS formats we see during the regular season, though it does often make for an interesting and fun DFS slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for NFL Playoff Sunday Slate. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Sunday Slate Picks

Lamar Jackson - BAL @ TEN ($7,800)

We'll kick things off with perhaps the most obvious play on the slate. With a Vegas O/U of 55 and a tight 3.5 point spread, this BAL vs TEN matchup undoubtedly stands out from the pack on this slate. Lamar Jackson certainly sticks out as the most explosive QB option available Sunday. The reigning MVP regressed a bit overall this season, but has looked sharp down the stretch, averaging 24 DK Points per game for the Ravens since Week 13.

In addition to his explosiveness, Jackson draws the best positional matchup on the slate. The Titans finished 29th in the NFL in overall defensive DVOA and allowed 373.68 DK Points to the QB position over the course of the season, a mark that placed them 28th in the league and last among teams qualifying for the playoffs. Tennessee largely held Jackson in check in their Week 11 clash this season, limited him to just 17.5 DK Points, but the Baltimore play caller did rush for 143 against the Titans in last year's playoff loss. He'll be popular on this three-game slate, but this is a spot where we might want to swallow the chalk.

Ben Roethlisberger - CLE @ PIT ($6,100)

Man...it's been a long time since I've written anything about Big Ben, but here we are with the veteran on what's a fairly ugly (at least from a DFS perspective) three-game slate. The "veteran" tag mentioned in my previous sentence is one reason I'm drawn to Roethlisberger here, as he's been through the wars of the playoffs before and should provide a steady presence for this Steelers offense that is still so reliant on him after all these years.

Pittsburgh continued to trend pass-heavy as the season progressed due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness with the running game. Ben finished the season with 608 pass attempts...the third-most in the NFL.  We can expect him to continue slinging it against this Browns Defense that is a bit of a pass-funnel unit. Cleveland ranked ninth in the NFL in yards allowed per carry this year, but just 22nd in yards allowed per pass.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Sunday Slate Picks

Derrick Henry - BAL@ TEN ($9,200)

It kinda seems like this slate revolves around what you do with Derrick Henry, so I feel like we have to discuss him. He carries the highest price tag on the board at $9.2k, has the most upside of any player, and figures to be massively popular. While I wish I had a fire Henry take for you guys, I'm sadly of a "middle of the road" mindset on him. We know that Henry is a unique player that's capable of unreal output and we know that the Titans will attempt to ride him through the playoffs. However, we also know that his DFS floor is surprisingly low due to his lack of receiving volume. This makes Henry a bit more prone to a total DFS dud than most other elite RBs in the NFL and has resulted in some scary-low DK performances this year (9.8 vs GB, 6.9 vs CLE, 6.8 vs CHI, 8.4 vs JAX). This tendency to miss badly when he misses, coupled with his expected popularity and matchup against a sturdy Ravens run defense that finished eighth in the NFL yards allowed per carry, makes me lean going underweight on Henry in this spot.

Alvin Kamara - CHI @ NO ($8,500)

After a ridiculous 6-TD performance in Week 15 and some COVID-19 drama during the final week of the regular season, Alvin Kamara should be good to go for the Saints. Kamara is neck and neck with Henry as the preferred RB option on this slate and I can actually envision a scenario where he's higher-owned than Henry if DFS players elect to "take the $700 savings".

Like Henry, he draws a less-than-stellar matchup against a Bears unit that finished the year ranked fourth in the league in run defense DVOA. Kamara does have a few more ways to get there than Henry, as the return of Drew Brees to the lineup once again makes him a very dangerous cog in this Saints passing attack. The downside is Chicago has allowed exactly ZERO receiving TDs to opposing RBs this year...which leaves us pondering Kamara's talent/upside vs the very difficult matchup. I fall more on the "bet on Kamara's talent" side of the fence, as his versatility - and Sean Payton's play-calling creativity - provides paths to him being able to post a big fantasy number.

Nick Chubb - CLE @ PIT ($6,700)

Another really good running back that draws a really difficult matchup. The Browns want to win football games on the ground, but will need to overcome a rugged Pittsburgh defense to do so. The Steelers out first in the NFL in overall defensive DVOA and fourth in run defense DVOA...yeah, it's not an ideal spot for Chubb.

However, perhaps crazily, Chubb might be my favorite RB play on the slate. The reason lies with not only his often underrated talent, but also with his remarkable consistency. Since returning from an injury in Week 10, Chubb has averaged 19.93 DK Points, never posting below 14.4 points, despite six of those eight opponents ranking inside the top-15 in rush defense DVOA. It won't be an easy task for him this Sunday, but Chubb's ownership is currently projected to be roughly half that of Henry, Kamara, and David Montgomery, which makes him an intriguing contrarian option on this small slate.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Sunday Slate Picks

JuJu Smith-Schuster - CLE @ PIT ($5,500) 

JuJu's been pretty heavily maligned since an underwhelming 2019 season, but he's put together a nice bounce-back year, doubling his catch total from a year ago, while posting 831 receiving yards for this Steelers offense. As we touched on when discussing Ben Roethlisberger at the QB position, this is now a pass-first offensive unit. Smith-Schuster finished the regular season ranked 17th in the league with 128 targets, so we should expect him to be targeted frequently in this matchup against Kevin Johnson and a Cleveland secondary that ranked 25th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA this season.

Emmanuel Sanders - CHI @ NO ($5,000) 

With New Orleans' top WR, Michael Thomas, returning to the lineup for the playoffs, DFS players will be scrambling to roster him. An interesting pivot is Thomas' teammate Emmanuel Sanders, a player that's filled in admirably during Thomas' absence. Sanders has averaged just over 15 DK Points over the Saints last four games and has progressively looked more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense with each passing week. WR is the most volatile position in the NFL and I'm willing to take a shot with Sanders here in an attempt to differentiate lineups.

Corey Davis - BAL @ TEN ($4,800)

Corey Davis comes into this slate grossly underpriced at just $4.8k. He'll be extremely popular as a result of the palatable price tag, but it's a tough spot to ignore, as Davis has truly blossomed in Arthur Smith's offense this year, logging career highs in catches, yards, TDs, and yards per catch. He lit up Marcus Peters and this Baltimore secondary back in Week 11 to the tune of 113 yards on five catches. Davis heads into this matchup fresh off an 11-target game in Tennessee's regular-season finale and with five games of 100-plus receiving yards this season, he brings legitimate upside to the table.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Sunday Slate Picks

Jared Cook - CHI @ NO ($4,600)

While Chicago ranks a solid 13th in pass defense DVOA, they have been susceptible to the TE position. The Bears allowed the second-most DK Points in the NFL to opposing TEs this season and will face a very competent one in Jared Cook this weekend. Cook is a pass-catching TE that's ran routes on a massive 98.5% of his offensive snaps this season. He's racked up seven TDs on a chunky 13.6 yards-per-catch average. Betting on pieces of this New Orleans offense is always a bit of a shell game because they can score in so many ways, but Cook draws perhaps the best matchup of any Saint this week.

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