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Boston Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2021 MLB season. Mike Kurland examines Dalbec's fantasy value at his current ADP.
It is safe to say Bobby Dalbec surprised us all as he came up and smacked eight home runs in just 23 games. A prospect known for his power, the production isn't as much as a surprise as how quickly it clicked for him. But be mindful, this came with a 42.4% strikeout rate and that just won't work at the MLB level.
Dalbec is said to have the inside track to start at first base and that it is his job to lose. This gives him obvious intrigue but can he perform well enough to be an asset rather than a liability in fantasy leagues?
Before diving into Dalbec, don't forget to check out some other draft sleeper outlooks including Austin Hays and Josh Naylor.
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A Mixed Bag
He posted a decent .263 batting average. However, that was largely on the back of a .263 BABIP. Unfortunately, the swing-and-miss was an issue with a SwStr% of 21.2% and sub-par contact rates. The contact issues and swing-and-miss combined will likely lead to lower batting averages. Strikeouts have been an ongoing issue all through the minor leagues. This will likely remain an issue. However, despite the strikeouts, he has always been able to sit with batting averages around .245 to .255 with sometimes hovering around .260.
Now that we got the negative points out of the way, let's focus on the positive. His walk rate translated right away to the Majors. At 10.9%, it was better than league average and lent itself to figuring into a .359 OBP. He consistently walked at a double-digit rate all through the minors. The power also translated quickly. He posted a 43.9% hard-hit rate with a 22% barrel rate. Although he lacks the contact skills, the quality of contact could help cover up some of the holes.
The power has always been a skill of his. He posted a total of 27 home runs across two levels in 2019 and 32 home runs across two levels in 2018 as well. He hit two home runs at just over 110 MPH last season. The power is real.
Dalbec also posted a wOBA of at least .341 at every stop except for one and the wRC+ was also solid and at least 106 at every level except one.
In 2020, Dalbec was also able to post a .400 wOBA overall and a wRC+ of 152. Essentially, really low lows in the profile but there is potential for high highs. Again, the underlying stats suggest some correction in this data but the power and on-base skills are not in question. If you play in OBP formats, Dalbec will gain value. If you are heading towards the end of your draft and you need power upside, Dalbec is also a late-round target to help in power.
2021 Outlook
A few quotes from Alex Cora:
“He’s a guy that we do believe controls the strike zone,” said Red Sox manager Alex Cora of Dalbec. “Obviously, there are going to be swings and misses, we know that. I do believe he doesn't chase as much as people think and he can have an impact sooner or later for us.”
“Defensively, what we saw in September at first base was very encouraging,” Cora said. “I've seen this kid since college, and defensively he's a plus. His range, his moves, his first steps, they're really good, and we were very pleased with the way he performed.
He hit in the back half of the order last season and given their current roster he will likely fall to the back end again. Dalbec is someone to target for specific formats or stats but that has value in the leagues he will be rostered. The team seems to believe in him and the opportunity is there for him to take advantage of. We will be watching him closely in spring training.
With an ADP of 286.89, this is a good chance to take a shot at what could be a standout in the power department. Dalbec could hinder the batting average as mentioned, but the power could be a nice boost late in drafts and with it should come some RBI production as well. The home run upside is 30 or more and finding that late in drafts is not common. In OBP leagues, this would be a great value and someone to be more aggressive on.
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