MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/15/2025)

September 15, 2025

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/15/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Giancarlo Stanton, Willy Adames, and Ronald Acuna Jr.!

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! I got crushed in football yesterday, so it's back to good old home run bets for me on this fine Monday. We have a smaller slate of games with only nine on deck, but that should still be enough to get some balls out of the park! We don't have any crazy wind or weather, so it should be fairly mellow in that aspect. That won't stop us from having some power hitters hit some homers!

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, September 15, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/15/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, September 15:

• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
• Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals
• Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+255 DraftKings)

We won't get great odds on this one, but it feels like a gimme. Simeon Woods Richardson (SWR for short) has been a solid pitcher to pick on for home runs. He has given up 16 this year, with nine of those coming against RHH. He is allowing a .429 SLG, .194 ISO, and a 15.4% Barrel% to righties this season.

There are quite a few lefties in this lineup, so that leaves us with either Stanton or Aaron Judge, and I'll take the guy with better odds for us! Stanton, since rejoining the Yankees, has absolutely crushed RHP. He has 20 home runs on the season, with 17 of those coming against RHP.  Stanton has the highest Barrel% on the team at 30.3%! He also has an SLG of .635 and an ISO of .353, along with a 53.5% HardHit%.

The Four-Seamer and Slider have been his two most thrown pitches. Combining for 67% of his pitches thrown this season to RHH. Lucky for us, Stanton specifically crushes those two pitches to a T. He has a combined 13 home runs on those two pitches and is slugging .796 against the four-seamer, and .813 against the slider. Everything is lining up perfectly for Stanton. Let's just hope he can get the job done here.

Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+439 DraftKings)

Zack Littell is on the slate?!?! Sign me up for what is likely to be multiple home runs in this one. Littell is a guy we have all liked to target this season. He has given up 34 home runs on the season and has shown no sign of slowing down either. I was going to piggyback off of Thunder Dan yesterday with Ivan Herrera, but I like how well Burleson grades out against Littell's pitch mix just a little better.

Littell has given up 14 home runs to lefties this season. He is allowing a SLG of .431, an ISO of .191, a Barrel% of 11%, and a 44.5% HardHit%. Burleson is the perfect counterpart to that as well. Burleson, this season against righties, has hit 14 home runs. Is slugging .466, with a .179 ISO, and an 11% Barrel%. The best part, though, is how well he is specifically attacking Littell's pitch mix.

Alec Burleson's 4th hit of the night is a walk-off blast! pic.twitter.com/xWN2KwZQOa

— MLB (@MLB) August 26, 2025

Littell generally has three pitches he throws the most. But we are gonna look at his Slider and Four-Seamer mainly. He combines to throw those two 53.3% of the time. Littell is allowing a SLG of .554 off his Slider and .441 off his four-seamer. Those pitches have given up nine of the 14 home runs to lefties. Burleson has crushed those two pitches specifically this season. Hitting 10 of his 11 home runs off RHP and slugging a .508 against the four-seamer, and .694 off the Slider!

Willy Adames OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 FanDuel)

This might be one of my favorite bets of the day right here. Adames has been a huge asset to this Giants team. He is on the verge of a 30-home run season. Where has hit 18 of them off RHP. Two of which have come off our very own Zac Gallen, who is lined up against him today.

Gallen has had a rough year, and unfortunately, the long ball has been his downfall. He has given up 28 home runs on the season, 16 of which to RHH. A look into Gallen would reveal against RHP, he has allowed a .419 SLG, .198 ISO, a 12.7% Barrel%, and a 42.1% HardHit%.

Willy Adames clubs a 3-run homer in the 1st inning! pic.twitter.com/21rVWeMjDL

— MLB (@MLB) September 10, 2025

The slider and four-seamer are two of his most thrown pitches, accounting for 60.4% thrown to RHH. He has given up 10 home runs off those two pitches. Those are also great pitches for Adames, who has hit 12 home runs off those two pitches. He is hitting .534 off the four-seamer and .448 off the slider. Adames has been great this year, especially against Gallen. This is a great option, we are getting solid value at.

Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+287 DraftKings)

I'm gonna finish this one off with Acuna. I normally try to avoid sub +300 plays, but with this being a smaller slate, and Acuna likely being one of the best options in this game, I'll suffer through it. Mitchell Parker has been crushed this season, especially by RHH, who have hit 19 of his 24 home runs given up this season.

We are also getting the benefit of some decent wind that is blowing out towards left field. Parker is allowing a .476 SLG, .203 ISO, 12% Barrel%, and a 51% HardHit%. The dude has been getting hammered this season, and the guy isn't a threat in the strikeout department with a sub 15% K% this season.

Acuna hasn't had a lot of ABs this season against lefties, but he does have some solid power stats. He has a 15.7% Barrel% and a 47.1% HardHit% against RHP, which ranks him second on the team, only behind Matt Olson. The three home runs Acuna has hit off lefties this season have come off the four-seamer and curveball. Which so happens to be Parker's two most used pitches, combining for 80.5% of his pitches against RHH.

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