Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 17

July 27, 2021

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. The trade deadline approaches, both in real baseball and in many fantasy leagues. Sometimes rather than pulling off that blockbuster deal, the difference maker we need is sitting out there on waivers, begging to be noticed. Or sometimes a buy-high scenario makes sense, when manager doesn't believe in a player who's recently performed well and wants to cash out his or her chips. We can recognize the player's true value and swoop in and get our man. The pitchers we're looking at this week could fit either description depending on your league, so settle in and let's try and uncover some pitchers to help us down the stretch.

This week we're sporting an East Coast bias with deep dives on three pitchers who call eastern divisions home. We'll break down the recent emergence of the Mets' Tylor Megill as a potential rotation savior for them, we'll look at the exciting reemergence of former top prospect Touki Toussaint in Atlanta, and we'll look at Domingo German's flirtation with a no-no for the Yankees, who managed to blow his gem of a start in spectacular fashion. Can we make LOLYankees a thing yet?

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 7/26/2021.

Tylor Megill, New York Mets

28% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 24 IP, 2.63 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.1 K/BB ratio

07/23 vs. TOR: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Megill has looked good since getting recalled in late June, but the young righty has really stepped his game up over his last two starts. Since returning from the All-Star break, Megill has not allowed a run over 12 innings, and earned his first career win on Friday over Toronto. The Mets have already made a trade deadline splash by acquiring curveball specialist Rich Hill from Tampa Bay, and while their fans may push for more aggressive moves, the Mets may be sitting on the starter they need to bring the NL East title back to Queens. Megill may not be Jacob deGrom, but with a 2.10 ERA through his first six starts, he’s doing a darn good impression. Can Megill keep up this level of production for the rest of the year, or will he falter down the stretch, like so many Mets players and teams before him?

An eighth-round selection out of Arizona, Megill was never much of a prospect in New York’s system. He did rank 21^st on MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings for the Mets coming into 2021, but that isn’t very high for a 25-year-old college right-hander. Megill profiled more as a reliever/swingman type than a true starter. Megill is best known for his heat, possessing a mid-90s fastball that can max out at 97 MPH. He’s paired that cheese with a sharp, mid-80s slider that has proven to be an effective strikeout weapon throughout his minor league career. The biggest flaw scouts and prognosticators saw in Megill was the absence of a third pitch. Megill had toyed with a curveball and changeup in the minors, but he couldn’t get either to stick. That was prior to 2021, however, as Megill’s changeup has taken a big step forward this season and is not only a serviceable third pitch, but has garnered whiffs at a prodigious rate through his first 30 innings.

Megill’s changeup has been a legitimate weapon this year, and he’s thrown the pitch 18.5% of the time, nearly as much as his slider (21.1% slider usage). The pitch measures up pretty well with above average vertical and horizontal movement for a changeup, along with an average spin rate of 1538 RPM and a 10 MPH gap between Megill’s changeup and fastball. Batters have struggled against the pitch as well, as Megill has a monster 21.6% swinging strike rate and 43.5% chase rate with his changeup this season. Batters are hitting .231 with a .500 SLG against the pitch, but those numbers feel a little unfortunate for Megill. He is only allowing an 85.3 MPH average exit velocity against his changeup with a .270 xSLG. It’s still a pretty small sample size, but two of the eight flyballs he’s allowed with the changeup have the left the park. We’d never expect a 25% HR/FB ratio to sustain itself over a longer period of time, especially given the weak contact Megill has induced thus far. The changeup is looking like more than a change-of-pace option, but it’s shaping up to be a legitimate breaking ball for Megill, and if these improvements hold, he’s got a starter’s arsenal.

The emergence of the changeup for Megill was a necessity for him to work as a starter, but it’s also quite a luxury given the quality of his slider. Megill’s slider has been his primary breaking ball throughout his collegiate and professional career, and it’s performed well in the majors too. Thus far, batters are hitting .133 with zero extra base hits and a 14.4% swinging strike rate. It’s a harder, sharper breaking ball that makes for a perfect pairing with his mid-90s fastball. Here’s an example of a Megill slider.

It doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers of his changeup, at least not to this point, but this is another legitimate weapon that Megill is clearly confident in. That’s more than we can say for a lot of rookie pitchers.

The biggest hurdle facing Megill, besides inexperience, is his role with the Mets. He’s pitching well, but the Mets have given him a short leash thus far. While he completed six innings on Friday, he was yanked after 78 pitches and he has yet to top 93 pitches this year. He’s proven to be inefficient at times, struggling with control and racking up high pitch count at bats. The playoff-hopeful Mets aren’t going to let him work out these kinks on a big league mound. Furthermore, the Mets seem hell-bent on using big name starters, and in addition to seeking players via trade, are expecting Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Carlos Carrasco back at some point, and there’s no chance Megill starts over any of those accomplished pitchers. This might be a short-term option for 2021, though I like his future sleeper potential. Perhaps the Mets would send him as part of a trade to another team, though they have such a dearth of healthy pitching right now it wouldn’t make much sense to trade a currently useful arm away. He might be in a swingman/spot starter role when other players start to get healthy.

Verdict:

Megill has developed a plus changeup over the last two years, which may positively affect his career trajectory by magnitudes. Between the changeup, slider, and mid-90s fastball he's got a solid starter's repertoire. Still, I think he’s a short term option for 2021, as the Mets will almost certainly want to fill out their rotation with more established pitchers. He's got sleeper potential for 2022 if he's in a position to start. His next start comes Wednesday against Atlanta, which is a solid matchup to use him. That also happens to be Megill's birthday, so if you're into narrative that's another point in his favor for that outing.

Touki Toussaint, Atlanta Braves

45% Rostered

2021 Stats (AAA): 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 2.27 K/BB ratio

07/25 @ PHI: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Sunday boasted a pitching duel for the ages in Philadephia, as Touki Toussaint duked it out with Aaron Nola in a strikeout-fest at Citizen’s Bank Park. Toussaint was outlasted by the more established Nola, but held his own with a career-best performance to this point. Toussaint put up career highs in both innings pitched with seven, and strikeouts with 10. Perhaps most impressive for the young righty was zero walks allowed, which have long been the talented Toussaint’s kryptonite on the mound. This start marks two straight standout performances for Toussaint, and with lots of prospect pedigree behind this name, one can’t help but wonder whether Touki has finally turned the corner as a starter.

As mentioned above, Toussaint was a highly touted prospect coming up in the Braves system. Originally acquired from Arizona for Phil Gosselin (man, Dave Stewart hated young talent), Toussaint was a top-50 prospect by many expert rankings a few years ago. Injuries and inconsistency caused his star to fade considerably over the past couple of seasons. 2020 may have been the low point, as Toussaint put up a hideous 8.88 ERA along with 2.59 HR/9 and a 13.3% walk rate in 24.1 innings for Atlanta. Even with the struggles, it’s hard to give up on a pitcher with nasty stuff, and Toussaint certainly fits that bill. He uses a four-pitch arsenal consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, splitter, and curveball. Oh man that curveball…that damn curveball. Toussaint’s gravity-defying bender had scouts and fans drooling over the possibilities, and the fact that he paired with mid-90s heater and a solid splitter made it easy to fall in love with Touki.

Toussaint’s curveball has been as advertised this season, as batters have managed a paltry .125 AVG against the pitch along with an outrageous 23.9% swinging strike rate. Toussaint racked up eight of his 16 total whiffs with his curveball in this start. Even when batters do make contact with Toussaint’s curveball, they aren’t getting much value out of it. Toussaint’s curveball has a laughably absurd 100% groundball rate this season. Of course, this illustrates how small the sample size is, but it also shows how effective the pitch can be. Here’s a few examples of the pitch from this start.

At it’s best that pitch looks like one of the league’s premier benders, and Toussaint has the strikeout rate to back it up. He likely won’t continue with a 23.9% swinging strike rate long term, but even in past seasons Toussaint maintained a swinging strike rate above 15% with his curveball, which is still a really strong rate for a curveball. Altogether, this pitch looks like the read deal and one should not have any reservations about Toussaint’s ability to get strikeouts.

The reservations with Toussaint come elsewhere, however, as the poor guy just can’t seem to find the strike zone with consistency. He has posted some ugly walk rates in past, and has routinely been above a 10% walk rate throughout his professional career all the way back to rookie ball and low-A ball. That can be a downside of a curveball-dominant pitcher, as Toussaint isn’t going to throw zone curves all that often, so he really relies on hitters to chase pitches and he needs to locate his fastball effectively to set up the curveball for swings-and-misses. It’s really easy for hitters to lay off an outside curveball if the pitcher can’t even get a fastball across the plate. There’s no reason for a hitter to look like a fool by swinging at pitches in the dirt when they can leave the bat on their shoulder and take a free ride to first.

Toussaint has made a change to try and correct this, which is eschewing his four-seam fastball in favor of a sinker. He’s had a 59.3% zone rate on his sinker thus far, which is 7% higher than the career zone rate on his four-seamer. Only three of his fastballs this season have been categorized as four-seam, which is a huge shift from how Toussaint has pitched in the past. While modern pitching philosophy has largely moved away from the sinker, if Toussaint is able to command the pitch better than his four-seamer, then it’s the right move for him. The results on his sinker have been amazing as well, as batters are hitting .148 with zero extra base hits and a -3-degree average launch angle. Between this pitch and his curveball, Toussaint has a much improved 53.3% groundball rate. It’s only been two starts, but his groundball rate was even better in the minor leagues, hopefully foretelling a permanent improvement for Toussaint. A groundball rate above 50% would give him another above skill alongside strikeouts. I’m skeptical of his improved walk rate, as Toussiant was still walking 15.5% of batters at Triple-A before his promotion. I don’t expect Toussaint to maintain his current 3.9% walk rate, but if he could somehow maintain an average walk rate (8% for starters in 2021), he would make big strides. If he could somehow have an above average walk rate, then Toussaint would be a major breakout candidate.

Verdict:

There’s no denying the talent of Touki Toussaint. His curveball could be one of the league’s best, and he pairs it with a solid splitter and mid-90s heat. The problems for Toussaint have always been control and health. He’s healthy now, and he’s shown his best control ever through two starts. Obviously, we’d need to see this control gains hold over a longer stretch, but Toussaint’s increased reliance on his sinker over his four-seam fastball could prove beneficial in preventing walks going forward. This change also has the added benefit of increasing Toussaint’s groundball rate, giving him another above average skill. There’s a lot that could go wrong here, as evidenced by some of his past seasons, but Toussaint has always been one of those pitchers who looked like he could be special if he could just keep his control in check. If he’s turned that corner he could be a big second half breakout, and is worth an add in 12-team leagues or deeper.

Domingo German, New York Yankees

35% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 86 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 3.6 K/BB ratio

07/25 @ BOS: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

The Yankees had been using German strangely in July, pitching him out of the bullpen in multi-inning stints before giving him a truncated outing against Philadelphia ahead of his gem on Sunday. A shift to the bullpen wasn’t exactly unwarranted, as German put up a 7.27 ERA in June out of the rotation, but the Yankees never made an official announcement and they were starting Nestor Cortes in a swingman role instead of German. German’s June may have been rough, but he was looking like a breakout earlier this year, posting a 3.06 ERA between April and May. It’s hard to tell who the real Domingo German is, but we know the right-hander is certainly capable of dominating performances, like the one he had Sunday at Boston. Can he keep it up for the rest of the season, or will Yankees banish him to the bullpen in due time?

Originally signed by the Marlins at age 17, German was thrown-in piece in the Nathan Eovaldi-Martin Prado swap all the way back in 2014. German was considered a mid-tier prospect in the Yankees’ system, but he profiled as more of a bullpen arm than a starter. He began his MLB career as a reliever, but earned a rotation spot after posting some impressive numbers. He’s been a mixed bag as a starter, with a 4.72 ERA, but an impressive 3.53 K/BB ratio. German boasts a four-pitch repertoire, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, and changeup. His arsenal is similar to that of Touki Toussaint, as German also relies heavily on his curveball, which also happens to be his best pitch.

German’s most used pitch is his curveball, and for good reason, as batters have really struggled against this pitch. Opponents are hitting .173 with a .208 SLG and a 17.7% swinging strike rate off German’s curveball this season. German’s curveball also has impressive measurables, with significantly above average break and drop, and a 2604 average RPM that has held steady despite the foreign substance crackdowns. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

That’s the second nasty curveball we’ve been treated to in this piece, and if we’re comparing German’s curveball to Toussaint’s, German does have the edge in one important category: consistency. He’s been dominating hitters with his curveball throughout his major league career, as batters are hitting .175 with a 19% swinging strike rate against the pitch all time. German notched nine of his 18 whiffs with the curveball in this start, and this is a legitimate strikeout pitch.

Even with this weapon, German’s 23.2% strikeout rate is a little underwhelming given the quality of his stuff. Not only is his curveball a dominant strikeout pitch, but German has three pitches with a swinging strike rate above 10%, and his overall 13.6% swinging strike rate is in line with his career average and tied for 13^th-best among starters (min. 90 IP). Among pitchers with swinging strike rates above 13.5% German is seriously lagging in overall strikeout rate. While I don’t expect 10 strikeouts every time out, German looks to have underperformed in the strikeout department to this point, perhaps as a result of his shift in usage and relatively short leash. If he remains a regular starter his strikeout rate should creep back up above 25%.

I’ve compared German to Toussaint a few times already, and while they do share some similarities, German does not share Toussaint’s walk problem. In fact, German has maintained a walk rate under 2.5 BB/9 over the last two seasons, and has a stellar 2.23 BB/9 this year. His 3.91 K/BB ratio isn’t elite, but it’s pretty darn good for a fringe fantasy pitcher. Between the raw stuff, the whiffs, and the above average walk rate it seems like German has all the tools of a big league starter, but unfortunately he has one major flaw that’s held him back from a real breakthrough.

The one major flaw is one that’s plagued several Yankees pitchers since they moved into new Yankee Stadium, and that’s the long ball. German just can’t stop serving up dingers. He’s already allowed 17 home runs in 93 innings this season, and his 1.89 HR/9 in 2019 was tied for fourth-highest in the majors that season (min. 140 IP). Overall, German has a 1.69 HR/9 for his career, which is bordering on untenable for a major league starter. German has shown pretty strong fly ball tendencies over his career, and a big reason for that is his four-seam fastball. He has a career 56.4% flyball rate with his fastball, and a 27-degree average launch angle off the four-seamer this season. These aren’t lazy flyballs either, as batters are pulverizing his fastball for a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity.

These Statcast metrics have been consistent year-over-year, and it’s hard to expect improvements when German isn’t doing anything differently. He’s throwing the fastball just as much, using the same sequencing, and throwing it in the same locations. He isn’t going to overcome this unless he tries something new, such as incorporating his sinker more frequently. The Yankees organization has been vehemently opposed to all things sinker for a while now (see: Jameson Taillon), so he probably won’t get that chance in New York. German also happens to be in the worst possible ballpark for his flyball-heavy pitching style. He’s in a similar boat to teammate Jameson Taillon, both of whom have an incredibly low average HR distance, but are likely going to struggle with home runs all season due to their ballpark and flyball tendencies. Sometimes it’s going to be worth rolling the dice on German as a streamer, and other times the longball may burn you. It would be interesting to see what he’d do on another team, but his uniform is unlikely to change in the near future. For now, he’s a streaming candidate depending on matchup and situation.

Verdict:

Between the curveball and the changeup German has some pretty good strikeout stuff, but his flyball tendencies have led to home run issues that don't look solvable mid-season. He should put up better strikeout numbers going forward, but his ERA will probably hang around in the low- to mid-fours. I view him similarly to Jameson Taillon, both of whom could be streamed based on matchup, but are not every time starters. German's next start is scheduled for Saturday at Miami, which is just about the perfect spot to use him.

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