RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 12, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
It was all about the NL Central this weekend, as we saw two interesting starts from two pitchers at very different stages in their career. First, we'll be breaking down the two scoreless outings from Cincinnati prospect Andrew Abbott. Then, we'll look at a dominant start from Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 06/12/2023.
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Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds – 56% Rostered
2023 Stats (AAA): 38.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 25.8% K-BB%
6/05 vs. MIL: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
6/10 @ STL: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
It was quite a week for Abbott, who fired six scoreless innings in his major league debut last Monday. He followed it up with another scoreless outing on Saturday in St. Louis, exciting Reds fans and fantasy players alike. Abbott was one of Cincinnati’s top pitching prospects coming into 2023, so it’s fair to wonder, are we seeing a talented young pitcher emerge, or was this just beginner’s luck?
A college left-hander out of Virginia, Abbott was Cincy’s top-ranked pitching prospect and sixth overall prospect coming into the season according to MLB pipeline. Listed at 6’ 180 pounds, Abbott doesn’t quite fit the stereotypical starting pitcher profile, and his strengths lie primarily in deception. Abbott works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, a changeup, a slider, and a curveball. Abbott’s curveball is viewed as his best pitch by scouts, and it’s been as advertised in the majors thus far.
Batters have been stymied by Abbott’s curveball, managing just a .111 AVG and .099 wOBA against the pitch through his first two starts. Noteworthy for its high spin and exceptional vertical movement, Abbott’s curveball is a classic curveball through and through. Curiously, while the measurables on the pitch fit the mold of a traditional curveball, the batted ball tendencies have not been what we’d traditionally expect.
Curveballs are generally groundball pitches, but Abbott has just a 16.7% groundball rate with this pitch thus far, along with an average launch angle of 17 degrees off the curveball. Even stranger, he has a 50% line drive rate and 96.6 MPH average exit velocity against his curveball thus far, yet he only has a .167 BABIP against the pitch. Obviously, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the incongruency between a 50% line drive rate, a 96.6 MPH average exit velocity, and a .167 BABIP. Something has to give.
Furthermore, the swing-and-miss on his curveball has been underwhelming thus far. Abbott has earned a grand total of four swinging strikes with his curveball through his first two starts, a fact made more concerning considering that one of his opponents — the Brewers — lead the league with a whopping 28.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season, more than a full percentage point higher than the next-closest team. The outcomes of Abbott’s curveball have been excellent thus far, but the peripherals do not support continued success at this time.
It would be easy to overlook Abbott’s strikeout deficiencies with just his curveball, but unfortunately, the lack of whiffs extends beyond that one pitch. Abbott has a pitiful 7.1% swinging strike rate through his first two starts, which would be tied for the lowest in the majors if Abbott had enough innings to qualify. While the curveball is known as his best pitch, Abbott’s changeup may actually be his best strikeout option in the majors. The pitch has above average drop and he has his highest swinging strike rate with the pitch, though it’s still an unimpressive 11.8%.
The strikeout numbers don’t look all that promising yet, however, we can hold out hope that Abbott improves in this category. He had an unreal 15.0 K/9 between Double-A and Triple-A this season and has a 13.2 K/9 in the minor leagues all time. Nothing about his first two starts suggests that more strikeouts would be coming, but Abbott is a talented young man with a track record for Ks in the minors, so there’s a chance he’s able to translate that into big-league success. However, Abbott’s issues go beyond strikeouts.
Excluding strikeouts, there are two stats that worry me about Abbott’s immediate future output. His walk rate, and his groundball rate. Abbott has walked 7 batters through his first two starts, giving him a bloated 5.40 BB/9. Command has long been a problem for Abbott, who has a 3.4 BB/9 in the minor leagues all time and had a 9% walk rate at Triple-A prior to his promotion.
St. Louis and Milwaukee (despite the latter’s offensive shortcomings) are both top-10 in walk rate against left-handed pitchers this season, so his high walk rate could have been somewhat influenced by the patience of his opponent, however, it’s not an encouraging sign when a minor league pitcher is promoted and we see one of his biggest flaws exacerbated. Like with strikeouts, I think Abbott could correct this problem based on minor league numbers, but nothing about his first two starts suggests this will happen. I am especially discouraged by his 41.4% zone rate and 26% chase rate. Abbott isn’t throwing it in the zone much, and batters aren’t chasing his pitches.
The final troublesome stat in Abbott’s profile is his 26.7% groundball rate. His home park is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball and he has a 94.4 MPH average exit velocity overall thus far. If I were writing a recipe on how to hit home runs, Abbott’s low groundball rate, home ballpark, and average exit velocity would all be key ingredients. Home runs weren’t much of a problem for Abbott until he reached Triple-A, where he allowed a 1.88 HR/9 in seven starts. Abbott has a 0.9 HR/9 in the minors all time, so his Triple-A season could be an outlier, but the batted ball numbers suggest that more home runs are coming against Abbott.
Verdict:
Abbott has some interesting long-term potential thanks to gaudy minor league numbers and the continued development of his pitches, such as his curveball and changeup. However, it doesn’t appear that the breakout is coming now for Abbott. He benefited from a .200 BABIP and 100% LOB rate through his first two starts, and he has a 5.50 SIERA despite a 0.00 ERA. With a paltry 7.1% whiff rate, a 14.9% walk rate, and 94.4 MPH average exit velocity against, I don’t know how Abbott keeps this up. For redraft leagues, now might be a good time to cash in the chips on Abbott in a trade.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs – 10% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 10.3% K-BB%
6/10 @ SF: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 B, 3 K
Hendricks turned back the clock on Saturday, delivering eight innings of scoreless, one-hit ball against the Giants. Hendricks earned his first victory of the season and lowered his ERA to 3.09 in the process. It’s been a hot minute since Hendricks was a valuable fantasy asset, but he’s not exactly a dinosaur at 33 years old either. Does this Ivy Leaguer have anything left in the tank, or is Hendricks doomed to flounder?
Once the epitome of boring reliability, Hendricks posted a 3.12 ERA in 1,047 innings between 2014-2020. It’s been tough sledding since then, as Hendricks has had a 4.65 ERA and a serious shoulder injury following the 2020 season. It was never about stuff for Hendricks, whose career average fastball velocity is a mere 87.2 MPH, 6.1 MPH slower than the average major league pitcher. Hendricks made his career with exceptional command and limiting hard contact, and to recapture the past success he’ll need to tap into those strengths.
When comparing Hendricks’s good years to his bad ones, two numbers really stand out, his K-BB% and his home run rate. His K-BB% went from solidly above average (15.5% pre-2021) to dangerously below (11.2% 2021-2023), and his home run rate went from acceptable (0.9 HR/9 pre-2021) to a problem (1.5 HR/9 2021-2023). What changed?
One factor could be Hendricks’s increased curveball usage during this period. Hendricks was primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher prior to 2020, but he threw his curveball a career-high 16.6% of the time in 2020. It worked for him at the time, as Hendricks posted a 2.88 ERA that season and finished ninth in Cy Young voting. Unfortunately, batters seem to have figured out his curveball. Last year, opponents pulverized the pitch for a .421 AVG, .789 SLG, and .517 wOBA. In his defense, Hendricks was dealing with a shoulder injury, but Hendricks seems to have deemphasized his curveball this season, perhaps because of last year’s results. Hendricks has thrown his curveball just 6.5% of the time this year, which is actually the lowest rate of his career. The curveball worked wonders for him in 2020, but it looks like Hendricks is back to basics with a fastball-changeup approach, using the curveball as a show-me pitch every so often.
Another factor to consider — and this one isn’t as correctable as pitch mix — could be premature decline. Hendricks averaged 177 innings pitched per season between 2015-2019, with Chicago going on deep postseason runs during that time as well. Beyond the raw innings on his arm, Hendricks has a pitcher profile that doesn’t tend to age well. Pitchers with low velocity and below-average stuff like Hendricks tend to operate on slim margins at the big league level.
Because Hendricks cannot overpower hitters with heat or fool them with gravity-defying breaking balls, he needs to be perfect at the things that make him good. For example, his walk rate may have only gone from 1.9 BB/9 pre-2021 to 2.3 BB/9 between 2021-2023, but Hendricks doesn’t have as much room to give as say a Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw’s getting older and his walk rate is up slightly this year too, but his stuff is good enough that he can get away with it. This isn’t just true for walk rate, and Hendricks has seen minor upticks in average exit velocity and hard hit rate over the last three seasons, as well as a small dip in strikeout rate.
Hendricks’s arc reminds me of a former teammate of his, Jose Quintana. Quintana was another boring but reliable arm who made his bacon by limiting walks and home runs, but as soon as Quintana’s velocity dipped ever so slightly and his walk rate rose ever so slightly, things fell apart for him. Quintana had a renaissance last season, and that may be possible for Hendricks, but it’ll take more than one good start for us to buy in.
Looking past the cause for his decline and potential for a rebound, what fantasy value can Hendricks bring to the table? Personally, Hendricks isn’t the type of pitcher I normally like to use a roster spot on in mixed leagues. He isn’t consistent enough at this point to rely on for ratios, and his lack of dominance and weak supporting cast means he’ll likely be deficient in both strikeouts and wins. He reminds me of current Zack Grienke; there’s just too much risk for a low upside. His 3.09 ERA looks nice, but for him to sustain that ERA he’d also have to sustain the .254 BABIP and 3.2% HR/FB ratio he’s had through his first four starts, something incredibly unlikely over the long term.
Verdict:
Hendricks seems to be reverting some of the pitch mix changes he made between 2020-2022, which is a step in the right direction. His curveball worked magic for him in 2020 but became a liability after that season, so it’s encouraging to see Hendricks deemphasize the pitch and rely more on the fastball-changeup style that made his career in the first place. Between injuries and age, Hendricks’s seems to have deteriorated enough that I don’t think a full bounceback is possible.
He never had amazing stuff, and he’s begun to slip in some of the core metrics of his game, such as walk rate and average exit velocity. With little potential for strikeouts and a losing ballclub around him, Hendricks offers almost no upside in terms of wins and strikeouts and is too unreliable to trust for ratios at this point in his career. He’s nothing more than a matchups-based streamer.
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