Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 1

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 1, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

This week we're taking a look at two pitchers who are looking to build on 2022 success. First we'll be looking at the most expensive free agent acquisition in Rays history, Zach Eflin. Then, we'll dive into Cubs lefty Justin Steele, who put up a dominant performance on Saturday.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 04/3/2023.

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Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays - 40% Rostered

2022 Stats: 75.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 20% K-BB%
4/01 vs. DET: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Zach got off to an Eflin good start to his season on Saturday, putting up five innings of one-run ball in Tampa’s 12-2 win over Detroit. Eflin allowed just four baserunners and notched five strikeouts while picking up a victory in his first start of the season. The Rays uncharacteristically committed $40 million dollars to Eflin over the offseason, so perhaps they see potential for more in the ex-Phillie.

Originally a second-round pick by the Padres, Eflin spent the entirety of his major league career with Philadelphia prior to inking a deal with Tampa Bay this offseason. Eflin boasts a deep arsenal, wielding six different pitches at any given time. His repertoire includes a sinker, a four-seam fastball, a slider, a curveball, a changeup, and a cutter. Eflin changed up his pitch mix quite a bit last season to feature his curveball and cutter more frequently, and those changes carried over into his first start with the Rays.

First, let’s have a look at Eflin’s cutter. He only began throwing the pitch last season after spending most of his career relying on a four-seam and sinker-heavy approach. Usually, when a middling starter like Eflin adds a new pitch, and that new pitch coincides with newfound success, we attribute that success to the new pitch. That doesn’t seem to be the case for Eflin, as opposing batters lit up his cutter for a .375 AVG, .688 SLG, and .473 wOBA last season.

Even in this start, Eflin managed just one whiff with the pitch. It’s not that anyone expects Eflin to put up massive strikeout numbers with what is essentially his replacement for his four-seamer, but one whiff and an 8.4% swinging strike rate is underwhelming nonetheless. Eflin was never a great fastball pitcher, and when’s found success in the past it’s been in spite of his fastball, not because of it. It’s always interesting when a pitcher adds a new pitch or makes a big change in their approach, however in this case the cutter doesn’t appear to be the reason behind Eflin’s success.

The reason behind Eflin’s success is simple, it’s that he’s begun throwing his best pitch—the curveball—more frequently and more aggressively. Let’s have a look at Eflin’s situational pitch selection from last season, noting the curveball usage.

He really hammered that curveball home when ahead in the account, and became unafraid of using it against batters from both sides of the plate. Now, let’s compare this against his situational pitch usage prior to the 2022 season.

Here we see a more traditional selection, as the right-hander primarily worked with a sinker-four-seam-slider approach and the curveball acted as a change-of-pace offering. What makes Eflin’s curveball so special? Its exceptional horizontal movement means the pitch sweeps much more than the traditional, looping curveball. Here’s an example from this start.

It can be a dazzling offering at times, and it’s no surprise that batters managed just a .155 AVG and .241 SLG off the pitch last season. Additionally, batters struggled to even make contact with the pitch, with Eflin putting up a 19.6% swinging strike rate and a 42.4% chase rate last year.

So, the curveball is good and readers should blow all their FAB on him, right? Not exactly. The problem with Eflin is that the dazzle doesn’t extend beyond the occasional nasty curveball. His other offerings are mediocre, meaning he lacks the one-two punch to earn strikeouts consistently. This shift in pitching approach has done little to change his overall numbers, as Eflin put up a 4.37 ERA and 4.00 xFIP as a starter last season, which would’ve been his worst ERA since 2017 had a few late-season bullpen appearances not brought the numbers down. Ultimately, there wasn’t enough in this one start to convince me that Eflin is more than the bland 3-4 starter that puts up the occasional gem.

Verdict:

New team, new(ish) approach, same old Eflin. His curveball looks great, but one good pitch does not make a starter (no matter how hard Dinelson Lamet tried). Mediocre stuff and a possible early leash from the Rays means low volume and low win potential for Eflin, who isn’t a talented enough pitcher to overcome that with strikeouts and ratios. In mixed leagues, Eflin has long been a JAG or a spot starter that one uses in a pinch, and that’s what he shall remain in Tampa Bay.

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs - 43% Rostered

2022 Stats: 119 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 14.8% K-BB%
4/1/23 vs. MIL: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Steele had himself a fine start in a no-decision on Saturday, tossing six innings of shutout baseball while striking out eight and walking none. Steele is building on his unheralded success from last season. Can the crafty left-hander go from virtual unknown to fantasy mainstay? Let’s dive into his pitching style.

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Cubs back in 2014, it has been a long journey to the majors for the 27-year-old. He puttered around the minors for seven years before getting the call in 2021, and upon first arrival, it looked like he needed seven more years down there. A 4.26 ERA and 5.52 FIP kept Steele off fantasy radars in 2021, but clearly, something changed in 2022. One doesn’t shave a full run off their ERA and two runs off their FIP without making some adjustments.

What Steele did was simple, he became a two-pitch pitcher. In 2022 Steele threw either his fastball or slider a whopping 93.1% of the time. This is an extreme approach, though it helps that his slider was borderline unhittable last season. Opposing batters managed just a .138 AVG, .219 SLG, and .183 wOBA against Steele’s slider last season. The slider was a big reason behind Steele’s strikeout numbers as well, since opponents had a 14.6% swinging strike rate last season, and Steele notched seven of his 14 whiffs with the pitch on Saturday as well.

What makes Steele’s slider so special? Spin! Steele’s slider averaged 2615 RPM in this start against Milwaukee and averaged 2687 RPM with the pitch last season. That is well above average for a slider, and that spin allows Steele’s slider to play similarly to a slider-curveball hybrid  (slurve). That coupled with above average break means the pitch becomes incredibly deceptive to hitters from both sides of the plate. Here’s an example from this start.

Here the pitch breaks in on the right-hander and drops sharply, making the batter easy to fool with two strikes. Now, as we mentioned with Zach Eflin, one good pitch does not make a starter. Since Steele only throws two pitches altogether, that fastball had better be good.

Fortunately, thus far the fastball has proven to be a solid offering for Steele. The pitch has excelled at power suppression for Steele, who allowed just a .413 SLG and .098 ISO with his fastball last year. Steele’s fastball doesn’t light up a radar gun, so how does he do it?

Much like his slider, Steele’s fastball is a high-spin pitch at 2490 RPM last season and 2362 RPM in this start. Steele also throws different variations of the pitch, which can keep hitters off balance (Steele himself talks about it here). He throws an all-out traditional fastball and a slightly softer four-seamer with a little cut. These variations help Steele get the most out of his limited repertoire, allowing the previously forgotten left-hander to flourish in the big leagues.

Verdict:

Steele’s game is far from perfect; his slider lacks the movement to put up truly dominant strikeout numbers, and his control has been lacking at times. Still, there’s plenty to like about what Steele has accomplished over the last year. Steele could be a solid fantasy piece all season if he’s able to replicate his 2022 success, and this start gave every indication that he could. Don’t expect a 3.18 ERA all season,  but he could post a sub-4 ERA with decent strikeout totals, which is a great season for a waiver wire add.

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