RADIO
Ace? Pseudo Ace? Damaged Goods?
Alex Cobb of the Tampa Bay Rays has tendinitis in his forearm and is slated to miss his Opening Day start, which for some reason has resulted in his draft stock falling fairly significantly. His average draft pick was 70.3 prior to the news of this minor injury, and is now at 81.3. Last season, Cobb finished with a 10-9 record, a 2.87 ERA and 149 strikeouts in 166.1 innings. And compared to the news that has been raining down this spring for pitchers, the Rays are probably breathing a sigh of relief.
Another reason his stock may have taken a hit from years past is durability concerns, as Cobb’s health record is the perceptible flaw. His isn’t filled with a history of shoulder or elbow damage structurally, however. He’s hasn't really had any issues since he had surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome in 2011. In the last five years, he’s had a concussion from being struck by a line drive and a couple of strained trunk muscles.
What to Expect in 2015
For those of you who I haven't already scared off by solely talking about his injuries, let's get down to brass tacks. With his top end stuff and command, he has all the credentials of being a true ace. He strikes out hitters at a decent rate and doesn’t walk many of them. He induces ground outs, he's got that nasty split-change, and there aren't really any signs of potential regression.
His repertoire should continue to produce a low xBABIP, allowing him to stay well under the league average in hits allowed. The Rays' swap of Yunel Escobar to Asdrubal Cabrera at short might affect his numbers just a bit, but this could be the year that Cobb has a healthy 32-start season and turns a big profit for his owners.
2015 Fantasy Value
I would be targeting Cobb in the 60-80th pick range. He's reliable when he's starting, and the only reason he isn't being drafted three rounds earlier is because of a fluky injury history (kind of reminds me of Johnny Cueto last year...). With two or three starting pitchers from Cobb’s "psuedo-ace" tier, rotisserie and head-to-head managers could have a great foundation on the pitching side. And they'll still retain the ability to acquire high-end hitters in the first several rounds or with a decent portion of their budget.
Projected stat line: 180 IP, 14 Wins, .295 ERA, 170 Ks
