X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Keston Hiura

keston hiura fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the prospects of Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Keston Hiura in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Does he project to provide value based on current ADP?

With the entire MLB world in a holding pattern due to Coronavirus concerns, now is a great time to delve more deeply into fantasy profiles than you ever have before. One player who warrants a closer look is Keston Hiura, the 23-year-old second baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers. Hiura was a regular on top prospect lists before his big league debut, peaking as the number-six prospect according to Baseball Prospectus last season. Scouts noted that he possessed a combination of “plus-plus hit tools” and plus-power that led to his being named a future All-Star before he even played a single inning.

Fantasy owners were expecting Hiura to hit the ground running in the Show, and he did. Hiura enjoyed a great rookie year, hitting .303/.368/.570 with 19 HR and nine steals in 348 MLB PAs. It's obvious why fantasy owners would be interested in a .300 hitter who approaches 40 HR and 20 SB over a full season, but there is no guarantee that Hiura's outstanding pedigree will translate to continued growth in 2020.

It can be exciting to own “breakout” players, but paying for a breakout before it happens can lead to a hemorrhage of value that it can be tough to make up for elsewhere. It's worth noting that Hiura was a completely different player in 2019 than he had been in earlier years, as he shifted from a speed and contact profile to a more power-focused hitter. Both versions of Hiura have red flags that may make it difficult for him to return value on his current FantasyPros ADP of 50.0.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Hiura on the Farm

Hiura earned his first taste of the High Minors after slashing .320/.382/.529 with seven homers and four steals (six CS) in 228 PAs at High-A in 2018, but his season line didn't jump off of the page for fantasy purposes. He hit .272/.339/.416 with six homers and 11 SB (five CS) over 307 PAs for Double-A Biloxi. The speed was exciting, but the combined success rate of about 58% is considerably lower than you'd like to see.

Likewise, Hiura didn't show any knack for lifting the baseball (19.6 LD%, 34.6 FB%) or raw power (8.1% HR/FB). The latter is particularly concerning given that Biloxi finished in the 64th percentile for HR in 2019, suggesting that his environment should have improved his power numbers. His plate discipline was fine (7.2 BB%, 18.2 K%), but his 10.8 SwStr% was a little bit high for someone who is relying on contact as their primary skill.

Nevertheless, the Brewers decided to start Hiura at Triple-A San Antonio to begin the 2019 campaign. He performed much better across the board, hitting .329/.407/.681 with 19 HR and seven steals (two CS) in 243 PAs. His SwStr% spiked to 13.9%, suggesting that he was swinging harder to add more power to his profile. It worked, as his HR/FB jumped to 36.5%. Unfortunately, he didn't add any more loft (18.1 LD%, 34.9 FB%) to make the most of his newfound power stroke.

It can be easy to think that Hiura's power spike was the growth that scouts always expected from him, but there's another possibility to consider. Triple-A adopted the same nitro-charged baseball used in the majors last season, and Triple-A San Antonio ranked in the 84th percentile for HR across the MiLB landscape last year. Amazingly, that was tied with Nashville for the lowest mark in the Pacific Coast League. Hiura played in an extremely hitter-friendly environment both home and away, a fact that may have masked the 45 Game Power scouting grade FanGraphs gave him before 2019.

 

Hiura's MLB Debut

The combination of a higher SwStr% and HR/FB on the farm suggests that Hiura sold out for power, an approach that he took with him to Milwaukee. His Statcast power indicators were good (95.1 mph average airborne exit velocity, 91.4 mph overall exit velocity, 13.9% Brls/BBE, 8.4 Brl%), allowing Hiura to post a HR/FB of 24.1%. His FB% also increased to 38%, though was still lower than you'd like to see from a slugger. He also pulled relatively few of his fly balls (12.7%), forcing him to work harder for his homers. Considering we know that there was a nitro-charged baseball at the MLB level as well, giving Hiura full credit for his power numbers seems ill-advised.

Opposing pitchers were also able to take full advantage of Hiura's increased willingness to swing and miss. His plate discipline at the big league level was terrible (30.7 K%, 7.2 BB%), and he struck out at roughly equivalent rates in the first (31.8 K%) and second (30.3%) halves. Particularly concerning is a 17.5 SwStr%. The chart below lists the top 12 highest SwStr% marks last season (minimum 300 PAs):

You'll note that the list is Javier Baez, Hiura, and fantasy busts. You can also see that Hiura misses pitches in the strike zone approximately 25 percent of the time, meaning you can beat him both inside and outside the zone. Quite frankly, it would be stunning for Hiura to hit .260 if these metrics repeat, to say nothing of the .303 he hit last season.

It worked last season because Hiura posted a .402 BABIP, but nobody's that good over a full year. His 24 LD% wasn't supported by his minor league history, so we can expect regression there. Furthermore, his .342 BABIP on ground balls was higher than most elite speedsters, a fact that seems particularly unsustainable considering Hiura's average Statcast Sprint Speed (26.9 ft./sec).

Baseball Savant's xStats say that Hiura deserved a BA of .266 last season, a number that falls further if his inflated LD% doesn't repeat. Similarly, his .530 xSLG was a full 40 points below his actual mark of .570 before any line drive regression is considered. That's a lot of potential downside for a player who is generally taken within the top 50.

 

Conclusion

Hiura's K% is atrocious, and there is a compelling case that his power last season had more to do with his environment than anything he can control. Even the steals are questionable considering his lack of elite speed and history of mediocre success rates on the farm. At a point in the draft where you could take more reliable middle infielders such as Whit Merrifield (47.4 ADP) for average or Jonathan Villar (51.2) for speed, selecting Hiura at his current cost makes little sense.

Verdict: Chump (based on the unsustainability of many of his 2019 numbers)

[jiffyNews category_include='698' headline='More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP