RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, February 23rd, 2022 at 5:30 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/23/22
We have four games starting at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time, and then one game starting at 10 p.m. Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Jake Oettinger - DK $8.0K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
Goalie pricing is pretty tight and Jake Oettinger is the least expensive of the of the four clear-cut favorites on this slate with Winnipeg implied for 2.6 goals at the time of this writing. Oetting has been pretty up and down, and he has burned me a couple of times with negative scores, but overall he is having a good season. He is 15-6, has a 2.34 GAA and a .921 SV%. When Dallas played Winnipeg on February 11th, he had 31 saves and allowed three goals, picking up the win. Dallas would be projected to have a similar game this time around and the hope is Oettinger can score 15-20 fantasy points at a discount compared to some of the other favorites on this short slate.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): EDIT - Francouz (DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K), Quick (DK $8.3K || FD $8.2K), Hellebuyck (DK $7.5K || FD $7.7K - GPP only).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Nathan MacKinnon- DK $8.5K || FD $9.8K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
EDIT: MacKinnon is out for the game. Kadri is expected to be on the top line and is a good pivot from MacKinnon, as he will be on the first power play but he will be on the 2nd line so I would not stack Kadri with Rantanen and Landeskog. . If you are going to spend up at Center, Nathan MacKinnon is the way to go here. The Avalanche are expected to face Thomas Greiss, he allowed three goals in 10 minutes on the ice. The Avs are implied for 4.2 goals, I like MacKinnon's chances of getting to five shots on goal and I also think he scores at least one point as well. He is definitely not a necessary spend-up option but if you have the luxury to do so, this is the spot here.
Tage Thompson - DK $6.5K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Thompson has been playing well recently. Montreal is on a three-game winning streak, allowing two goals in each game. There is not a ton of value below his price point on this slate and while he might be slightly too expensive, Montreal is still a team with shaky defense and goaltending, despite the recent uptick. That said, I prefer to include him in a stack as opposed to playing as a stand-alone player.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Point (DK $6.8K || FD $8.2K), Draisaitl (DK $7.8K || FD$9.6K), Hintz (DK $7.0K || FD $7.1K - Better FD play), Kopitar (DK $6.4|| FD $6.8K), Suzuki (DK $4.9K || FD $6.4K), Seguin (DK $5.2K || FD $5.7K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Kyle Connor - DK $7.0K || FD $9.3K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
I like this play on DraftKings more than FanDuel. Connor is always a threat to lead the slate with shots on goal and is only the 8th most expensive skater on the slate on DraftKings (5th on FanDuel). He has not hit the shots on goal bonus and his price has come down a little. I would not roster him with Oettinger (who I wrote up above) but is a great one-off play if using a different goaltender.
Viktor Arvidsson- DK $6.3K|| FD $6.5K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Viktor Arvidsson has been shooting on goal more, collecting 39 shots on goal in his last seven games. Los Angeles did play Arizona just four days ago and Arvidsson had five shots on goal with one assist. I do not see why Arvidsson cannot get at least three shots on goal and a point scored in this one as Arizona is really bad.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kucherov (DK $8.5K || FD $9.7K), Pavelski (DK $7.5K || FD $8.0K), Rantanen (DK $7.2K || FD $9.1K), Tuch (DK $6.7K || FD $7.8K), Landeskog (DK $6.2K || FD $8.8K), Caufield (DK $3.7K || FD $4.7K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $6.6K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Cale Makar has gone nine straight games without a goal and I think his dry spell ends tonight. He has consistently been getting two to four shots on goal and I think he has some positive variance with one of those pucks going in. He is the top spend-up option on the slate for me and is someone I always consider in a Colorado stack as well.
Mortiz Seider- DK $5.6K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
Seider is part of the top defensive pairing and is on the top power play for the Red Wings. Something else I like about him other than his shots on goal upside and point-scoring upside is his blocked shots. He has had 15 blocked shots in his last six games including reaching the blocked shot bonus on DraftKings in three of those six games. Going against Colorado, they likely will take a lot of shots and Seider has more shot blocking upside than a typical slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hedman (DK $6.4K || FD $7.0K - I like this more as part of a power play stack than a stand lone), Doughty (DK $6.3K || FD $6.9K), Toews (DK $5.4K || FD $6.5K), Heiskanen (DK $4.4K || FD $5.0K), McDonagh(DK $2.9K || FD $4.9K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Colorado (4.2 implied goals) and Tampa Bay (4.9 implied goals) are the two teams with the highest implied totals on the slate and both are viable stacks on this slate. Los Angeles (3.7 implied goals), Buffalo (3.3 implied goals), Montreal (3.3 implied goals), and Dallas (3.1 implied goals) are the bunch in the middle. My strategy tonight will be to find which of these teams in the middle are overlooked and hope they end up being the top stack of the night.
That said my top stacks tonight are as follows:
Los Angeles PP 1: Arvidsson - Kopitar - Kempe - Doughty had a night the last time these two teams played and completely smashed the slate. The Kings Power Play was a spot that I missed because they are ranked just No. 26 in the NHL. What I missed was Arizona is No. 32 in penalty kill percentage and they are No. 2 in penalties committed. I worry that this time around people will go to the well looking at the game logs. Los Angeles is implied for 3.7 goals anyway and they are going to stand out. If the industry starts talking them up, I am probably out on the power play and will look to the 2nd line possibly as my secondary stack.
Los Angeles 2: Danault - Arvidsson - Moore, have scored more even-strength goals than any other combination of forwards on Los Angeles according to Left Wing Lock. Arvidsson will be popular due to his exposure on the top power-play along with those checking the game logs. If the other two players' ownership is relatively low, this will be my top three-man stack of the night.
Dallas 1/PP1: Hintz-Pavelski-Robertson has scored the third-most even-strength goals out of all the forward combinations that have hit the ice this NHL season. As a Power Play, they are No. 9. I do not mind adding a fourth player such as Klingberg to make this a Power Play stack. Dallas has the No. 8 Power Play Percentage in the NHL while Winnipeg's penalty kill is No. 28. With a 3.1 implied goal total on the slate, this is a line that could go overlooked.
Buffalo 1: Buffalo is implied for 3.3 goals but I wonder if because Montreal is on a hot streak (three straight wins) that Buffalo won't be as owned as they should be. Thompson-Tuch-Skinner have been picking it up as of late. Tuch and Skinner had huge games against Montreal just 10 days ago. I also don't mind adding Dahlin (if he is healthy, he is day-to-day at the moment) to make this a Power Play stack, as Montreal is No 5. in the NHL in penalties (No. 2 on the slate), and their penalty kill percentage is No. 30.
Edmonton PP1: With 2.7 implied goals (No. 6 on the slate), this may qualify as my sneaky stack of the night. Connor McDavid is typically the highest owned player each night; he is the Mike Trout of the NHL in that he will be routinely 30-40% owned because he is the best player in the game and everyone who plays NHL DFS knows his name. Tampa Bay commits the third-most penalties on the slate per game, while Edmonton has the No. 4 Power Play Percentage in the league (No. 1 on the slate). I am not playing this stack in single entry or even three-person entries, but it is a stack I'd consider if playing more lineups.
Tampa Bay 4 (MME ONLY): I am not a big MME guy but I was digging into the stats and Bellmare-Perry-Maroon have scored the same number of goals on the season as a combination as Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond on Detroit and more than Matthews-Marner-Bunting on Toronto according to Left Wing Lock. This line does not get much ice time (often around 10 minutes), but they do have some Power Play 2 exposure with Maroon and Perry. I would only consider on a small slate like this one, and in a large field GPP where you need to find leverage on the field. If doing MME, you would want most likely a couple of lineups in there with exposure. I will not be playing in my Single Entry and Three Max because the floor here is extremely low and this is a high risk move.
Edit 2/23/2022 6:21 pm Eastern - With MacKinnon out, stacking Colorado has gotten more interesting. Landeskog-Rantanen-Nichushkin are all wingers, making it tougher to stack. Also only Landeskog and Rantanen are on the first line. Landeskog-Rantanen-Makar makes for an interesting "Line 1" stack and adding a Kadri could turn it into a Power Play 1 stack.
I am fading my favorite team, Colorado, tonight. In a vacuum, this is a weak matchup and Colorado should do well. This is the fourth game of a four game road trip, coming off a loss, I would expect Colorado to have focus on this game. That said, I am not sure if it will be a ceiling spot for this team or if they take an early lead, they will just sit on the puck.
If you cannot fade Colorado yourself, my advice would be to get creative. Maybe you stack Makar in a three man stack instead of Landeskog. Or perhaps you roster Toews instead of Makar, although I don't love that move considering Makar is on a bit of a goal scoring drought. Either way, try to find a way to be different because typically the teams with the highest total on the slate are chalky.
