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Elliott discusses fantasy baseball busts to avoid in 2022 fantasy baseball drafts. These MLB infielders had down seasons, and will disappoint again in 2022.
When it comes to busts, there are two types of fantasy managers. The type who carries the wounds of drafting the bust with them always and never picks the player again, and the type who sees once-reliable players underperform and gleefully scrutinize the player's numbers, hoping to find value in players discarded. The latter approach is the more logic-driven, and good fantasy managers know how to pounce on value when it presents itself.
Unfortunately, not every bust turns it around, and some players will continue to punish the fantasy managers who believed in them. In this piece, we're outlining three infield disappointments from last season that are unlikely to return to past glory and should be avoided at their current draft price.
ADP numbers are taken from NFBC drafts and are current as of 1/9/2022.
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DJ LeMahieu, 1B/2B/3B - New York Yankees
When playing for Colorado, LeMahieu looked primarily a product of Coors Field. He displayed exceptional plate discipline and contact skills, as well as a preternatural ability to spray balls to all fields, but the quality of that contact was suspect given LeMahieu’s abysmal barrel rates and propensity towards hitting groundballs. Merely putting the ball in play is a valuable trait in Colorado, but without the aid of that thin Denver air and spacious field of play, LeMahieu seemed destined to flounder in a new environment. The opposite occurred, as LeMahieu found his power stroke and became an MVP candidate during his first two seasons for the Yankees. Between 2019-2020, LeMahieu posted a .922 OPS, 146 wRC+, and .199 ISO in 871 PA. His opposite-field hitting tendency lent itself well to Yankee Stadium, and he was viewed as a bankable fantasy commodity going into the 2021 season. Unfortunately, LeMahieu’s power evaporated last year as the veteran infielder posted a meager .094 ISO and .362 SLG in 679 PA. LeMahieu was one of just eight qualified hitters to post an ISO below .100 in 2021, and he was the only player among that group of weaklings who even sniffed top-100 draft status going into last season. His current NFBC ADP is around pick 116, so there’s a discount to be had here, but one must wonder whether LeMahieu can ever recapture the magic of his first two seasons in New York.
The biggest knock against LeMahieu has to be his extreme groundball tendencies. Being a groundball hitter isn’t inherently a bad thing, but it’s hard to envision a power resurgence when LeMahieu hits about 53% of his balls-in-play straight into the dirt. His power numbers were buoyed by a 20.9% HR/FB ratio between 2019-2020, more than double his career mark. That ratio may have been boosted thanks to the juiced ball, and it regressed to a more realistic 7.7% in 2021. We could probably expect the pendulum to swing a bit in the opposite direction for 2022, but it’s unlikely that LeMahieu will see the HR/FB ratios he saw during the juiced ball era. Expect a range of 12-18 home runs from LeMahieu in 2022 should he remain healthy and starting, but the days of 20 home runs or an ISO around .190-.200 are likely behind him.
Even if his power numbers don’t return, fantasy managers may still view LeMahieu as a reliable source of batting average. As a career .300 hitter who’s had three seasons with a batting average above .320, there’s plenty of reason to believe in a batting average rebound for 2022. His 35.8% opposite-field rate last season was tied for highest among qualified hitters and makes him a nightmare to shift against. LeMahieu’s .282 xBA was much more respectable than his actual .268 BA, and his .301 BABIP was 39 points lower than his career mark. It seems like a near certainty that LeMahieu will post a higher batting average in 2022 compared to 2021.
Even for those who don’t believe in a LeMahieu bounce back, it’s easy to concede the batting average point. He will likely post a higher mark in 2022 than in 2021, but even if he hits .300 again, what’s the upside? There’s questionable power in this bat, and perhaps maybe three to five steals coming from LeMahieu in 2022. This could be some empty batting average, similar to the seasons we saw from Adam Frazier or Michael Brantley last year. Useful, but both of those players are going well outside the top-200 picks. A good portion of the batting average value comes from volume as well. A player simply showing up every day and producing helps fortify a roto team’s batting average, especially if that team rosters batting average drains such as Joey Gallo, Miguel Sano, or players of similar ilk. LeMahieu has been rather reliable on the health front thus far in his career, but he is 33 years old and coming off hernia surgery, making him a moderate health risk as he mans the hot corner in the Bronx this year. With his power unlikely to ever return, LeMahieu seems like nothing more than an aging source of batting average and runs. At pick 116, pass on the veterans and take a shot on someone with a little more upside.
Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS - New York Yankees
It’s New York Yankees hate hour apparently, as we keep it in the Bronx to dissect another 2021 disappointment in Gleyber Torres. Torres made a name for himself in 2019 by playing pinball with Baltimore pitching, posting an unbelievable .394/.467.1.045 triple slash and 13 home runs against the Orioles and a .278/.337/.535 triple slash with 38 home runs overall that season. Torres was just 22 years old when he put up those numbers, and Yankees fans were already sculpting his Hall-of-Fame bust. It’s been a downward spiral ever since, as Torres has limped his way to a .255 AVG, .703 OPS, and .111 ISO in 676 PA between 2020-21. 2020 was easy to excuse away given the shortened season, but Torres managed just a .259 BA and nine home runs in 516 PA last season. After two years of desolation, it’s hard to imagine a turnaround is imminent for Torres.
The lack of surface production is one thing for Torres, but his poor quality of contact is the bigger cause for concern. He had a paltry 87.1 MPH average exit velocity last season, which is bad enough on its own, but even worse, his exit velocity has declined for three straight seasons. The ball was lighter last season and exit velocities rose across the board, yet Torres is still on the decline. It’s quite unusual for a seemingly healthy 25-year-old, but he has struck the ball more weakly as time has progressed. Exit velocity isn’t everything, but you don’t see many power hitters with a sub-88 MPH average exit velocity. Why 88 MPH? It’s the speed that sent Marty McFly into the past, and it’s the speed that sends balls into the seats. Players with similar batted ball profiles include Myles Straw, Josh Harrison, and Kyle Farmer. Maybe all four could combine for a decent home run total in 2022, but individually, there’s a reason for skepticism.
Maybe it’s unfair to hold Torres to the standard of his 2019 season. At pick 154, nobody is drafting him to be that player, and that season appears to be an outlier where Torres’s numbers were catapulted by a juiced ball and weak opposition. However, outside of the power production, Torres doesn’t bring much else to the table. Now, you may be thinking, “Hold the phone, he stole 14 bases last year. That type of speed doesn’t grow on trees.” And you’d be right, although Torres probably wishes baserunning speed grew on trees, then he could pluck some for himself as he certainly needs it. Torres may have swiped 14 bags, but he was caught six times and is only in the 50th percentile in sprint speed. The Yankees structure their lineup around the three true outcomes, so they’d be unlikely to tolerate Torres running into outs on the bases. Plus, Torres only had 12 career steals prior to 2021, so banking on steal production from him is a risky proposition. Couple the likely speed regression with a suspect hit tool (.268 career BA, .256 career xBA) and Torres doesn’t bring much to the table other than name value. Forgo this option around pick 150 and target someone with more tangible upside, such as Brendan Rodgers or Amed Rosario, both middle infielders going around the same range as Torres.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B/SS - Cincinnati Reds
Suarez has had something of a similar path to that of Gleyber Torres. While Suarez was hardly a highly touted prospect like Torres, they both flashed decent potential early in their career, both exploded in 2019, and both have been on a downward trajectory ever since. Suarez smashed 49 bombs in 2019, the second-most in the league that season behind Pete Alonso. He also hit a respectable .271 with 103 RBI and a 130 wRC+. The Reds had to have been feeling pretty darn good about the seven-year, $66 million dollar deal they inked with Suarez the year before. Unfortunately, the slugging third baseman has whiffed his way out of relevancy over the last two seasons with an atrocious .199 AVG and 29.6% strikeout rate in 805 PA between 2020-21.
Sure, he’s got 46 bombs over that stretch, but that’s of little solace to both the Reds and fantasy managers who’ve had to endure unfathomably prolonged and treacherous slumps from Suarez between his spurts of productivity. Suarez’s fantasy stock has taken a commensurate tumble as a result of his poor production, but it would be easy for a prospective fantasy manager to see a familiar name, look at the draft cost, and view Suarez as a distressed asset worth buying for 2022. While the approach is sound, the likelihood of a Suarez bounce back seems exceedingly low heading into next season.
For starters, Suarez appears to have greatly overperformed his true skill level in the past. His peak season was inarguably 2019, where he hit .271 with 49 home runs. Those surface numbers were not supported by underlying peripherals, as Suarez had a middling 89.1 MPH average exit velocity and a .243 xBA. His home run total was inflated by an unsustainable 29.5% HR/FB ratio during that season, and it would be unrealistic to expect his HR/FB ratio to approach that level again, even while playing his home games at Great American Ballpark.
Suarez is a bit unique when it comes to the strikeout-heavy power hitter archetype as well, because a common characteristic of that profile is the exceptional quality of contact, even though the frequency of contact remains low. Consider the likes of Joey Gallo, Miguel Sano, and Jorge Soler. All three struggle to make consistent contact, but when they do connect, the ball surges off their bats with colossal force. That’s not true with Suarez, who not only has the substandard exit velocity as previously mentioned but had just a 17.1% line drive rate last season. Based on his last few seasons, it appears that Suarez is attempting to recapture past success by focusing heavily on hitting flyballs. His line-drive rate has decreased in each of the last three seasons, and likewise, his batting average has tumbled from a career-high .283 in 2018 to a measly .198 in 2021. The combination of inconsistent contact, so-so exit velocity, and a strong emphasis on flyballs is the perfect recipe for a low batting average. Unless he makes fundamental changes to both his swing path and his approach at the plate, don’t expect any batting average relief in 2022.
Banking on fundamental changes to approach and style is rarely a winning bet in fantasy. First, Suarez and his coaching staff would have to make the conscious choice to change the approach. Maybe they would, given his recent performance on the field, but maybe they’d continue trying to correct with an even heavier flyball-driven approach. And perhaps Suarez isn’t capable anymore. His success came during the juiced ball era, and he could be one of the many players whose numbers didn’t match their true skill during the late-2010s. Even if he did decide to change the approach and was physically capable, it takes an incredible amount of work to restructure swing mechanics, and the slightest nuances could prevent him from finding that success. The bottom line, Suarez might give you 30 home runs next season, but it’ll be the closest thing to empty power in the majors. Maybe he’ll provide a decent RBI total, but expect negatives in batting average, runs, and steals from Suarez. He and DJ LeMahieu might actually complement each other’s skillsets well, filling in for one another’s flaws, but only take that approach if both players can be had below their draft value.
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