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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier on 12/11/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
As sad as it's real, folks. We're hitting the last home run of the 2021 calendar year after we turn to our last plate appearance and single hit a week from now. In other words, we're entering the weekend of the last numbered event of the 12 months making up this year in UFC 269 come Saturday. Las Vegas, aptly, will be the host city to it although we won't be stepping into the Apex but rather T-Mobile Arena to wave the year off at least when it comes to UFC main events.
Dana tested positive for COVID recently, but that didn't prevent him from putting together a spicy bunch of fights for the upcoming weekend. In fact, not only one but two belts will be on the line as both men (lightweight) and women (bantamweight) will be fighting for the gold stripes next Saturday. Charles Oliveira is putting his title on the line against Dustin Poirier while otherworldly Amanda Nunes will be trying to get rid of another foe in Julianna Peña. And before we reach that climax we'll have plenty of goodies in the early card and fights with the likes of Cody Garbrandt and Sean O'Malley doing it inside the Octagon. Not bad.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier on 12/11/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Charles Oliveira, $7600 - vs. Dustin Poirier
We like to find things where there's nothing, so that's why I'm writing this next. Charles Oliveira got his first shot at a belt--and won it--on his 26th UFC fight. Dustin Poirier is entering... his 26th fight. I know, I know, Poirier already got two title fights with the first one ending in W (won the belt) and the second in L (to Khabib) both in the middle of 2019. But hey, if Charles did win it in his 26th, could that be the case for Dustin too? Thing is, this fight is tight as hell.
Oliveira is carrying a nine-fight winning streak into this fight. Poirier, who lost that one against undefeated Khabib, would be on a seven-fight winning streak himself that would actually be an 8-0-1 getting back to the start of 2017. Oliveira has gone to decision just once in his past five fights, finishing four foes with 3 KOs and a sub. Poirier comes off dropping once-great Conor McGregor twice via second- and first-round KOs. These two can do it on striking and grappling, though Oliveira has been able to actually submit opponents into oblivion while Poirier has not won via submission since 2012 while getting his lone late defeat via sub. Not looking good on that front for him, as Oliveira can do it all with gusto. Gotta side with the reigning, defending (and still... by Saturday night's end) champ.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Nunes, $9100 - vs. Julianna Peña
It's slim picks when it comes to finding potential contenders for the WBW title in possession of Nunes. I mean, this girl has defeated 12 fools in a row getting back to March of 2015. Her last defeat came via KO to Cat Zingano more than seven years ago. That's absolutely insane. And that doesn't take from Julianna Peña's (or whoever else) greatness, don't get that wrong. Peña herself, while never fighting for the title, has a career 5-2 record in the UFC and is coming off a submission victory against Sara McMann.
But Nunes is just inevitable. She's just too good. She's in the conversation for the best P4P fighter out there doing it these days, for real. When she doesn't finish her foes, she goes for her bulky 175+ SSA landing above 55% of those attempts. She's shown grappling and takedown prowess. She's a fantasy-point-generation machine, as simple as that. Peña doesn't waste takedown attempts (she's landed 62% of her career 26 TKA) but her striking volume is way lower than Nunes. The rates are often higher, but that's obviously because she's throwing fewer than 100 SSA per fight. This is basically Nunes' fight to lose if we're honest.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Geoff Neal, $8000 - vs. Santiago Poinzinibbio
Although Neal is coming off back-to-back losses while Santiago won his last bout, the truth is that these two want to get better results starting this weekend--Neal getting back to the W column, and Santi solidifying himself with a two-fight winning streak after defeating Miguel Baeza his last time out. See, these two are looking up to reach higher ranked positions in order to eventually face current-champ Kamaru Usman. Neal is 12th and Santi 14th in the WW division, so there's still a way to go for both.
When it comes to this affair, both fighters come with rather high KO-prowess. They have knocked out a ton of opponents through their careers, but obviously, Neal has the freshest set of results as he's packed his seven fights in a four-year span compared to Santi's eight-year tenure. The current two-fight skid is tough, though, but Neal has posted slightly better numbers on takedowns and looked crispier at KO'ing people of late. The striking volume might be on Santi's side, though, but this looks like an early-wrapped-up-fight-to-be so I think Neal has the slight edge there.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kai Kara-France, $7500 - vs. Cody Garbrandt
It's not that long ago that Cody Garbrandt was right there in the middle of the title picture. I mean, we're just three years separated from Cody's last chance at lifting the gold, though he dropped his last two such bouts against TJ Dillashaw and never truly recovered from that (yes, he defeated Raphael Assuncao next, but then dropped his last fight to Rob Font last May). Kai, on the other hand, has yet to appear in a title fight but he's truly getting there as he's now ranked as the 6th-best FW and rising.
Kara-France won his last fight and is 2-1 since the start of 2020. He's done it all: won his last one via KO, dropped a submission, and won a decision to kick his 2020 year off. Garbrand lost three straight fights (two to TJ and one to Pedro Munhoz) via KO, then KO'd Assuncao himself, and finally fumbled a decision against Rob Font. Gardbrant is precise but not a high-volume fighter. He can do it on the ground but is not adept at it, and his floor is way lower than Kai's. Kara-France won't be giving you any sort of grappling bonus points, but his volume is sublime and he should close Saturday with a higher DKFP tally than Cody's all things considered.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sean O'Malley, $9100 - vs. Raulian Paiva
These two guys have been fantastic in their UFC little runs. None of them has fought for more than six times (Sean) but they are on positive records (Paiva at 3-2 and O'Malley at 5-1) and on three and two fight-winning streaks with Paiva's getting there in the 2020-21 span and O'Malley this 2021 year alone. Now, hear me out: Sean O'Malley has been on an absolutely different plane compared to anyone doing it out there. After his decision-win back in his Mar. 2018 debut, all he's doing is KO'ing foes or getting KO'd himself. That's it, that's what Sean does these days.
It's been either third- or first-round finishes for O'Malley getting back to his first one in Mar. 2020. It took 14:33 minutes of fighting time for Sean to rock his latest opponent, but he did so attempting a monster 318 (!) SSA and landing 230 of those, which is pretty much insane and allowed him to reach 170 DKFP on that day. That's the perfect combination we all dream about when it comes to fantasy plays: volume + late-finish bonus points. Paiva can do it, but he only has one KO to his name and went 54-for-126 on that one for 107 DKFP. Good, not great. O'Malley should keep building his strong resume as he gets closer to that title fight... assuming he can crack the BW ranks once for all (which... Dana, please do something).
