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Mike Marteny's CFB bettings picks against the spread for 9/10. He has every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
Week 1 is over, and the DVR is (mostly) cleared off. It's time to tally up the week 1 betting scores and see what we came away with. We'll get to that. First, we have two four college football games tomorrow. Two of those are FBS vs. FBS schools, so I need to pick those. We can make money before Saturday. It is possible! Let's see what we're dealing with in the Friday pregame before another monster Saturday.
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
CFB Betting Picks 9/10:
Kansas at (17)Coastal Carolina(-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's a lot of points, but did you watch Kansas against South Dakota? If you did, my condolences. I know Kansas fans that didn't even make it through that game. It was rough. CCU is better than they were last year offensively and the defense appears to be just as good. I have to think they cover this in Conway.
UTEP at Boise State(-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Why is this line falling? Deion Hankins is out for UTEP and the Miners can't play defense, at least not against this team. This gets ugly, but how ugly? It should be ugly enough. Give me Boise.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 1 Results
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 1. I picked 46 games and all 46 played (eventually). Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Temple at Rutgers(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What the hell was I scared of? This game was never in question. The middle of the Big Ten(14) looks to be a lot better than in recent years.
Boise State at Central Florida(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It wasn't an outright win. The UCF defense was outstanding in the second half allowing the offense to come from behind and win. If that unit has turned the corner this year, look out!
South Florida at North Carolina State(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was wrong about one thing. The Wolfpack did worse to the Bulls than Notre Dame did in the season opener last year. This two-headed rushing attack of Ricky Person and Zonovan Knight is going to be tough on ACC defenses.
East Carolina at Appalachian State(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Mountaineers made me sweat this. ECU looked a lot better than they did last year, in particular QB Holton Ahlers.
(4)Ohio State(-13.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That stupid half. I want to say that Minnesota wouldn't have gotten covered if it weren't for the injury to Mohamed Ibrahim, but the game was slipping away before he got hurt. What could have been for Goldy! I bet this at -14, so at least I pushed. It's a loss here though.
Bowling Green at Tennessee(-35.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tennessee did score five touchdowns, but just barely. Fortunately for me, the Falcons were able to grind out a couple of field goals.
(10)North Carolina(-5.5) at Virginia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
What a horrible showing for Sam Howell and the North Carolina offense. The defense had something to do with that, but not all of it. We are going to have to factor home field advantage in more this year. Blacksburg was crazy on Friday night!
Duke(-6.5) at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So, Charlotte finally gets their first ever win against a power five school. Way to go Duke! Don't blame Mataeo Durant. He ran for 255 yards and three touchdowns.
Old Dominion at Wake Forest(-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I got the half here, but the Wake second-string defense made me sweat it down the stretch.
Michigan State at Northwestern(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Mel Tucker's influence arrived early. The Spartans showed up and punched him in the mouth with Kenneth Walker III early and often. This is what the Spartans can do with a workhorse back, something they have lacked for the last three years or so.
Tulane at (2)Oklahoma(-31.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We were damn lucky not to lose this outright. Spencer Rattler made the poor decisions that plagued him last season and the Tulane defense played tough in the second half. Our defensive line nearly killed Tulane QB Michael Pratt, but he stood strong the entire game and was a half-yard short from possibly pulling off the unlikely comeback. Tulane is a dangerous team, but once again, we are left wondering about the validity of the Oklahoma defense.
(19)Penn State at (12)Wisconsin(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason I wouldn't touch this. If you watched the game, you understand. Good defense, yes, but the ineptitude of both offenses was literally painful to watch in the golden age of offense in college football. In other news, this was James Franklin's first win against a top 15 opponent on the road in 13 tries.
Louisana-Monroe at Kentucky(-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So this is what happens when Wan'Dale Robinson has a QB that can hit him in stride and Will Levis plays in a good offensive system. Who knew?
Western Michigan at Michigan(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt, but the Michigan offense looked good. I know that Western Michigan is not a bad team and will likely end up in a bowl. The added dimension that John Milton III brings is something that has been sorely lacking since the RichRod era ended in Ann Arbor.
Stanford vs. Kansas State(-2.5) at Jerry World: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Easy money. I like David Shaw, but Stanford is just not a good team right now on either side of the ball.
Army at Georgia State(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So I talk you up Georgia State and this is how you do me?
Fresno State at (11)Oregon(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We can only hope that the injury to Thibodeaux isn't serious. In all fairness, this Fresno offense was good enough to win this game. The Oregon offense just wore down the defense.
Rice at Arkansas(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took every bit of that explosive fourth quarter for the Piggies to cover this. The Hogs were down at halftime and the folks in Fayetteville were none to pleased. They had to be pleased with KJ Jefferson and the defense in the second half. I know I was.
(1)Alabama(-19.5) vs. (14)Miami(FL) at Tuscaloosa East (Atlanta): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. I believe in the talent of D'Eriq King, but more often than not, the result doesn't fit the talent. As usual, this was a clinic on both sides of the ball by Alabama. For those of you that though Bryce Young wasn't up to the challenge? You're a bit off. He became the first Alabama quarterback ever to throw for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns in his first career start.
Miami(OH) at (8)Cincinnati(-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
WHACK! Get off me fly.
(17)Indiana at (18)Iowa(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a top-notch performance by the Iowa defense. Michael Penix was harrassed and made poor decisions all game long. Riley Moss returned two of the three interceptions thrown by Penix all the way back for touchdowns.
Marshall(-2.5) at Navy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Lesson learned. Rasheen Ali is a true weapon for the Herd. Brenden Knox was most of a slow burn. Ali is a firecracker.
West Virginia(-2.5) at Maryland: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Taulia Tagovailoa is not his brother. He has a different skill set, but the mentality is the same. Maryland has some explosive receivers and that defense was truly impressive, forcing four turnovers. West Virginia had every chance in this game, but Maryland always took it away from them. The Terps earned this win.
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State(-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ah....you gotta love a Mike Leach defense. In other news, Mississippi State overcame the largest deficit in school history (20 points) to win a game. Will Rogers is a perfect quarterback for this system. There should be no question about who the QB is after this game.
Central Michigan at Missouri(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
As predicted, Tyler Badie had a monster game. Washington transfer Jacob Sirmon played so well that his co-starter, Daniel Richardson, didn't see the field. The Chippewas are going to do well in the MAC this year. They put a scare into a pretty good Missouri team.
Massachusetts at Pittsburgh(-37.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have put more on this, but I still don't trust the Pitt offense. They have quite a test coming up this week against Josh Heupel's Tennessee squad.
(23)Louisiana at (21)Texas(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In my dumbass attack of the week, I picked Texas in the spread version of ESPN College Pick Em. Go me! This Texas offense might be more explosive than when Sam Ehlinger was under center.
San Jose State at (15)USC(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Spartans did hang around for a while, but it was too much Drake London for the Trojans. USC finally took control of the game in the fourth quarter.
Akron at Auburn(-37.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Okay, so it didn't take an act of God for Akron to score. It only took Auburn's second string defense. This was a methodical whipping by Auburn, but it should have been. Hey, not everyone beat the teams they were supposed to this week *coughWashingtoncough*
Syracuse(-1.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a methodical win by the Orange. Perhaps more telling was their unwillingness to commit to a quarterback or to let either one throw the ball much.
Oregon State at Purdue(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon State may have lost Jefferson, but they didn't lose that edge that they played with last year. They battled the Boilers until the end. This is a good Purdue team that the Beavers hung with.
Texas Tech at Houston(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's one thing when a player runs his mouth, but the coach? That's a new one. How's that working out for you, Dana? Erik Ezukanma might go for 300 receiving yards in a game this year. That's how good he is.
Baylor(-13.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Sure, Texas State is a little better than last year, especially on run defense. However, there is no denying that this was an ugly game by Baylor. They're in trouble.
(5)Georgia vs. (3)Clemson(-3.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a big time defensive showing by both teams. The only touchdown was scored on defense and every offensive player with the possible exception of Georgia RB Zamir White was a total disappointment. This is what a top-five matchup is supposed to look like.
Florida Atlantic at (13)Florida(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Florida could complete more than 40% of their passes, they'd be dangerous.....
UTSA at Illinois(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Illini had no answer for Sincere McCormick or Zakhari Franklin. Yes, UTSA is that much better than Nebraska. This wasn't a poor performance by Illinois or a letdown. They just ran into a better team.
Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech(-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. The Wreck certainly lived up to their name in this one. How about the stones on NIU to go for two and the win? Nice win, guys! I mean it!
Kent State at (6)Texas A&M(-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Considering the Aggies only scored 10 in the first half, I was pretty sure I was losing this bet. I'm glad they showed up in the second half.
Southern Mississippi at South Alabama(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
South Carolina transfer Jake Bentley made Jalen Tolbert even more of a threat. The Jaguars are going to be trouble in the Fun Belt this year.
(16)LSU(-2.5) at UCLA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
LSU had zero business being ranked. That said, UCLA is a lot better than they were last year, in no small part due to Zach Charbonnet.
Nevada at California(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was sweating this after the Wolfpack fell behind by two touchdowns in the first quarter. Then the real Cal showed up.
BYU(-12.5) vs. Arizona at Las Vegas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Arizona will still struggle this season, but they are playing with far more chutzpah than they had last year. The entire dynamic of the game changed after that safety in the third quarter. Gunnar Cruz is learning on the job. Yes, he made some mistakes, but you can see the talent there. Arizona will knock off at least one team they shouldn't this year.
New Mexico State at San Diego State(-31.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Same old Aztecs. They trailed 10-0 at the half. Greg Bell is a great back, but this team can't throw to save their souls. It's not all the quarterback either. That's a large part of it, but there were too many drops as well.
Utah State at Washington State(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Hey.....uh....all my friends up there in Washington State. You guys okay? Twas a rough weekend for you guys.....
(9)Notre Dame(-7.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Not a bad way to close out the weekend. You get Jack Coan out the of the Big Ten(14) and he turns into Joe Montana. This was a spirited comeback by the Seminoles, even though they fell short. This is the kind of fight they have been lacking for the last couple of years.
Louisville vs. Mississippi(-9.5) at Atlanta: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Lane who? Dontario Drummond was a very good receiver last year. He looks even better this year. Matt Corral is the perfect quarterback for this system. He'll make some mistakes – after all, this is a guy who threw six interceptions in a game last year – but he doesn't let it get to him. He has the Allen Iverson mentality. Just keep shooting. Good things will happen.
College Football Betting Season Results:
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I went 2-2 in week 0 and wound up with a totally exciting 0 points. That wasn't the case this week. Normally week 1 isn't that good of a week for me. This week was no different with the high point bets. Fortunately, I went heavy enough on Kansas State with my real bets to get back to zero. I went a solid 27-19 in week 1 to put me at 29-21 on the season. This is about where I want to be. Did I make enough to survive those bad big bets?
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-4 (5-4) = 1
2. 11-7 (11-8) = 6
3. 10-4 (12-4) = 24
4. 0-2 (0-3) = -12
5. 1-2 (1-2) = -5
I ended up with 14 points in the bank in the true week 1. My bank is now at 42 points in a little more than four seasons. Come back tomorrow for the spread picks for this weekend! We've got another big weekend with 82 games. Only 43 of those are FBS vs. FBS tilts. I'll have the rest of the 41 of those for Saturday!
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