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Pierre Camus identifies must-have wide receivers for 2021 fantasy football drafts. Who are the best ADP values and potential league-winning WRs to move up your draft board?
So many players, not enough roster spots. That's often the feeling you have after wrapping up a fantasy football draft when your must-have players didn't last until your pick or your favorite sleepers were left undrafted. The solution - join at least 10 leagues and you're almost guaranteed to get them all somewhere!
For those with less time or more sanity, you want to make the most of your only league or prioritize the best players in your most important league. Those are the true must-have players - the ones you will truly count on to claim bragging rights and/or prize money.
I've already gone through the top of my must-have list with players at every position including Calvin Ridley and CeeDee Lamb at wide receiver. Now, it's time to get deeper and discover more of my must-have wide receivers for 2021.
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Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
As a rookie, Higgins posted 67 receptions for 908 yards. Not too shabby. But these totals are somewhat misleading. He accomplished this despite essentially not playing in the first or last game of the season with a total of 18 offensive snaps and one target between the two. Then consider that beyond Week 10 he didn't have Joe Burrow at QB and was forced to catch passes from Brandon Allen and Jeff Driskel. Pretty impressive that he even managed to crack 900 yards.
In the eight full games he and Burrow played together, Higgins averaged five receptions and 75.8 yards per game while scoring four times. Over a 16-game schedule, that would have worked out to 80 receptions for 1206 yards with eight touchdowns. That would have made him a top-12 fantasy scorer at his position a.k.a. a true WR1.
Of course, we could play the "what if" game all day and prorating stats isn't the most effective way of valuing a player. We must admit that there's a great chance Higgins takes a step forward in his second season as many receivers do, especially after last year's shortened preseason and virtual training camp. The addition of Ja'Marr Chase shouldn't worry anyone, especially after his preseason struggles. This offense can support three receivers and will still be pass-heavy. Higgins is at the very least a solid WR2 yet is somehow being selected as WR29 on average.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
All the preseason news has circulated around the Rams backfield with the Cam Akers injury, speculation about Darrell Henderson's role, then the trade for Sony Michel. Forgotten amid all this is the fact that the Rams got a new quarterback in Matthew Stafford and are primed to pass the ball more than ever. Last season, they were middle of the pack (15th) at 35.7 pass attempts per game. The year before, Sean McVay's team had the third-most pass attempts with 39.5 per game. Now, with the loss of their lead RB and the addition of a trigger-happy gunslinger at QB, I project an increase in targets for this receiving corps.
The Rams did add more weapons at receiver but DeSean Jackson will serve as nothing more than a deep threat and Tutu Atwell won't be a target hog anytime soon. Van Jefferson is the wild card as he steps into the WR3 role but he did little as a rookie and isn't expected to usurp either Woods or Kupp in target share.
Speaking of target share, we know what we're getting from Woods already. In the past four seasons with the Rams, Woods has garnered 23% of the team's targets every time. Without a standout RB like they used to have in Todd Gurley, I expect the team to jump back up near 600 pass attempts on the year. That would mean 173 targets headed Woods' way. I also anticipate his yards per target to revert closer to the 9.0 mark, seeing as how he averaged 8.9 yards per target from 2017-2019 with the good version of Jared Goff. That would mean over 1,500 receiving yards for Woods, not to mention the rushing production he gets.
Last year, he ran for 155 yards which was second-highest among wide receivers behind Curtis Samuel (unless you still count Cordarrelle Patterson as a WR). That's production you won't get from Cooper Kupp, which gives him the slight edge regardless of who winds up getting a bigger target share. For what it's worth, Kupp's target share has been 23%, 21%, and 20% the last three seasons - the same or slightly lower than Woods. Kupp has also battled injuries recently including a tender knee, never a good sign. Woods has missed one game in the past three years. Both are solid WR2 types but Woods is almost being disrespected based on his reliable production and upside for more in this version of the Rams offense.
Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
To be honest, I've wavered back and forth about Jacksonville's passing offense this whole preseason. In late 2020, once it was obvious the Jags had secured the top draft pick and were getting Trevor Lawrence, I was big on Shenault as a breakout candidate. The hiring of Urban Meyer made me less optimistic and the selection of pass-catching tailback Travis Etienne were minor blows to my confidence level. Then came injuries to D.J. Chark and the recent news that Etienne will miss the entire season. While that's a huge boost to James Robinson, it also might help Shenault.
Shenault fits into the offense similarly to Deebo Samuel in San Francisco - a low aDoT (average depth of target) receiver who will always hover within the line of gain or catch the ball near the line of scrimmage. Shenault's 6.2 aDoT was barely higher than JuJu Smith-Schuster and lower than a lot of big-bodied tight ends. Among WRs with at least 20 targets in 2020, Shenault had the 10th-lowest aDoT, again depending on whether you count Cordarrelle Patterson as a receiver. That basically means the passes that would have gone Etienne's way will fall to Shenault.
Trevor Lawrence threw 23 times tonight (113 yds). Here’s his targets:
- Laviska Shenault: 7
- Marvin Jones: 5
- Dorsett: 2
- Austin: 2
- Travis Etienne: 1
- Carlos Hyde: 1
- Treadwell: 1Through 2 preseason starts:
- Shenault: 10
- Jones: 9
- Hyde: 2
- Etienne: 1— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 24, 2021
These types of receivers don't excite the average fantasy owner, leading to derogatory terms such as "slant boy." The fact is that Smith-Schuster was a top-15 fantasy WR in PPR leagues last year and even in an injury-riddled season, Samuel averaged 14 points per full game. Shenault has the benefit of a new franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence and is another second-year receiver who should jump up in value.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
The second-year receiver who may see the biggest gains from 2020 is Mooney, who stands alone as the WR2 in Chicago. Anthony Miller was discarded and the rest of the WR corps consists of journeyman Damiere Byrd, sixth-round pick Dazz Newsome, and field-stretcher Marquise Goodwin who opted out of last season. Then there's the obvious upgrade from Nick Foles/Mitch Trubisky to Justin Fields, who should be starting within a matter of weeks.
PFF projects Mooney for 62 receptions, 693 yards, and four touchdowns but that seems very conservative. He reached 631 yards as a rookie with a less prominent role under a less effective offense. A 1,000-yard season may be overly optimistic, but there's almost no way he doesn't outperform his current ADP of 135 overall.
Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints
I'd like to just fill this space with preseason highlights because Callaway has been that good. No player has jumped up draft boards faster and it's a good idea to jump a couple of rounds higher than his ranking in whatever platform you're using to secure him.
WHAT. A. CATCH @CallawayMarquez 🤯 pic.twitter.com/PPi0ZBVU9C
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) August 24, 2021
The buzz started when it was discovered that Michael Thomas would require ankle surgery (that should have been done months ago) and miss several weeks. Tre'Quan Smith has now missed the most recent portion of training camp and may not be ready for Week 1. Don't forget, the Saints let Emmanuel Sanders go in free agency without replacing him and only drafting wideout Kawaan Baker in round seven.
Jameis Winston was just named the starting quarterback, at least for Week 1, and that's good news for the receivers who are there. The connection between Winston and Callaway has been immediate and could last all season long if he can keep his interceptions to a minimum. Bottom line: preseason stats and hype can quickly disappear once the real season begins but everything is in place for a Callaway breakout.
Don’t leave your fantasy football drafts without Marquez Callawaypic.twitter.com/hAG5732fpU
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 24, 2021
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