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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
Following up a holiday weekend is tough to do, especially after an 0-2 Friday on my picks. I’ve been bouncing back and forth between even record and units all year, but something has to give here soon. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my plays for Tuesday, June 1. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-4 (+.43u)
- O/U Record: 9-10-2 (-1.85u)
- Runline Record: 4-5 (-.35u)
- First 5 Record: 8-4-3 (+2.63u)
- Prop Record: 2-5-1 (-2.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 28-28-6 (-1.85u)
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
O/U: 8 | TB -120 NYY +110
Tampa Bay: Tyler Glasnow; New York: Domingo German
Glasnow has been excellent this year, but it’s hard not to notice his home/road splits. His ERA is doubled on the road, six of his nine homers allowed are on the road, and his BB% is nearly doubled as a visitor; notice a trend here? The electric right-hander is downright un-hittable at times, but then others he just doesn’t look comfortable. Offensively, Tampa was one of the best against RHP in May, boasting an .800 OPS and a 129 wRC+. They’re getting top-to-bottom production, especially from Austin Meadows and Joey Wendle and jumping on the Yanks when they’re down would give this team a huge boost in the AL East.
It’s been a rough go of things for the Yankees lately, following a sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. They’ll need Domingo German to have his best against a surging Rays lineup. The 28-year-old has been quite consistent, with a few spotty errors to hinder his profile. He’s only allowed more than three runs once, and over his last three outings he’s allowed just three earned runs in 18.2 IP. One hindrance is the nine home runs allowed so far, and that’s fueled by Yankee Stadium where seven have left the park. Offensively, the Yanks haven’t had things roll their way to end May. Since May 17, the Yankees hold just a .671 OPS, a .299 wOBA, and a 92 wRC+.
Both Glasnow and German aren’t in good spots playing at Yankee Stadium, but only Tampa Bay’s offense has been stout, while New York has been down. I love targeting the first half of this game, and I look for both offenses to put some runs up early.
Pick: First 5 Innings Over 4 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 7.5 | CIN -112 PHI +100
Philadelphia : Aaron Nola; Cincinnati: Sonny Gray
Road starts haven’t been kind to the Phillies’ ace, as Nola’s ERA is nearly two points higher to go with a .432 SLG and .315 wOBA as a visitor. The righty has been very topsy-turvy in terms of consistency but he still ranks in the tops of most major Statcast metrics. Offensively, the Phillies’ lineup has been trending downward of late; they haven’t scored more than three runs in any of the L5. Since May 17, they rank amongst the league’s worst against RHP, posting a paltry .618 OPS with a .105 ISO,
With Gray as a Red, he’s enjoyed his time pitching in Great American Ballpark. His hone ERA in 2020 sat at 2.90 and this year through 22 IP it’s at 3.22. He sits at about league average in xERA and xwOBA, so what we’re seeing is what we’re getting. The Reds’ lineup has been strong at home this year, averaging over six runs a game, the most in MLB. Add in a RHP mound opponent and they have a .223 ISO with a 115 wRC+ and they are a formidable lineup.
Combine a solid hole offense with a pitcher who prefers his home mound, and I love Cincinnati today. Nola is tough, no doubt but his road struggles, so far, are worth some weight and I’m targeting that here.
Pick: Cincinnati ML (-112, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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