MLB Betting Picks for Friday 5/14 - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

May 14, 2021

Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 5/14/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!

Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!

A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.

I’m not going to lie, I was very salty that Zac Gallen got scratched Wednesday night, as Arizona -1.5 was one of my favorite plays thus far. Hopefully he’ll be alright, but nothing like losing a great value play. Nonetheless, we still hit the Toronto moneyline pick and I’m now 5-0 in the last five bad looking to carry that into the weekend! Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Friday, May 14. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!

2021 MLB Betting Picks

• Moneyline Record: 4-4 (-.18u)
• O/U Record: 9-7-2 (+1.15u)
• Runline Record: 4-4 (+0.45u)
• First 5 Record: 6-4-3 (+.73u)
• Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.71u)
• 2021 Total Record: 25-23-6 (+.44u)

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays

O/U: 10 | TOR -148 PHI +135

Philadelphia: Vince Velasquez; Toronto: Steven Matz

Velasquez has been solid since rejoining the rotation mid-way through April. Over 19.2 IP as a starter, he’s given up seven earned runs with a 21/8 K/BB, but a worrisome number is the six home runs allowed in that span. Now, with just seven ER allowed, the majority of his runs allowed are home runs. His stuff is working, evidenced by the above average Whiff %, but when hitters do make contact, they hit the ball hard. His 15 BB% is also worrisome, and hints that some big blow ups could be on the way if he can’t keep the ball in the park.

Toronto is on a nice run of late, winning four of their last five, averaging 5.8 runs per game, and all on the road. Now they return home for a 10-game home stand; expect big things out of the Jays. They’re still playing In Dunedin, Florida before shifting their home field to Buffalo in June. For now, they have a top tier offense at home, boasting a .361 wOBA and a 131 wRC+, both league bests, and it’s followed up with a .216 ISO. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are the big catalysts thus far, but Marcus Semien, among others, supplement the offense well.

Toronto averages 6.4 rpg at home, two runs more than when on the road. Add in that the bats have been hot on the road over the last two series’ and these Jays are in great form right now. They have a juicy matchup, facing a home run prone pitcher which means I like sparks to fly for Toronto’s home stand opener.

Pick: Toronto Team Total Over 5.5 runs (+110, BetMGM) 1 Unit 

Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers

O/U: 9 | CHC -130 DET +120

Chicago: Jake Arrieta; Detroit: Tarik Skubal

Arrieta got absolutely shelled his last time, gifting seven runs over 3.1 innings. Aside from that, on the surface, the righty has been solid thus far, holding a 2.57 ERA but a 4.61 xFIP hints at some luck and expected regression. The Cubbies lineup was held in check by Cleveland over two games, but now they get a juicy matchup with a lefty. As a team, The Cubs carry a .321 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ And get a solid boost in those numbers away from Wrigley. There’s no official word on the status of Kris Bryant (wrist) heading into the weekend, but we still have a lineup filled with Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo who has handled LHP well over his career.

Detroit heads into the weekend hot off a sweep of the Royals and will look to take down a big series with the Cubs. Unfortunately for them, Skubal hasn’t been good and puts them in a vulnerable spot to open the series. Through seven appearances (five starts) and 27 IP, the lefty has allowed 10 homers with five coming over his two most recent outings. He ranks among the league’s worst in xBA, xSLG, xERA, and xwOBA among others, so he’ll have his hands full with a big Cubs lineups. Detroit’s lineup certainly isn’t exciting, but they’re about league average against RHP at home, posting a .314 wOBA and a 100 wRC+.

Arrieta got his clock cleaned his last time out and I think we can expect more of that, whereas, Skubal has been terrible all season. He doesn’t have a good bullpen behind either, in fact, they’re the worst in terms of ERA (6.63!!). Look for runs early and often.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-121, Draftkings) 1 Unit

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