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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/12/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
We had a tough weekend all around, as several bets were blown up early. However, it was pretty fun having the under in Joe Musgrove's no-hitter on Friday evening. Big thanks to Jamie for taking things over on the weekend! We're onto a new week and things have been very interesting around the league through the first week-plus.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Monday, April 12. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-1 (-.15u)
O/U Record: 2-2 (-.14u)
Runline Record: 2-2 (+3u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.75u)
Prop Record: 0-2-1 (-2u)
2021 Total Record: 7-8-3 (-1.6u)
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | SEA -115 BAL +100
SEA: Justus Sheffield, Baltimore: Dean Kremer
Sheffield had a buzz around him coming through the minors, but his time in the bigs hasn't been so fruitful. A solid 3.58 ERA over 55 innings in 2020 was downplayed by his statcast metrics, and after his first start things don't seem to be much better. His control has always been a bit of an issue but he does a solid job limiting hard contact. The Mariners lineup has been having some inconsistency issues through the first eight games, but they scored eight Sunday, thanks to three home runs; they hit six in the entire series. Going to the hitter friendly Camden Yards will be a benefit to this lineup, though they are missing top outfielder Kyle Lewis (knee).
The O's got swept by Boston over the weekend, putting a damper on their 4-1 start. This Mariners matchup should be a good restarting point for Baltimore. Kremer is one of Baltimore's top prospects but the 25-year-old has struggled thus far, including his first start this year where he gave up three in three innings, striking out five and walking four. He has strikeout upside but until we see more, he's a relative unknown. The offense wasn't the issue in the Sox series, as Trey Mancini is off to a nice start, among others. In their limited sample against LHP this year, they have a .348 wOBA and 125 wRC+.
Both teams are in different spots here; Seattle is riding high off a series win against the Twins, while Baltimore needs a reset following a sweep. These are favorable matchups for both offenses
Pick: Over 8.5 (-108, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9.5 | OAK -125, ARZ-110
Oakland: Chris Bassitt; Arizona: Madison Bumgarner
Bassitt has gone through the ringer in his first two starts, battling the Astros and Dodgers, respectively. Over 11.1 IP, he allowed seven earned runs with a 7/3 K/BB; it could be worse. His career road ERA is almost two full points higher (4.62) than when at home (2.78). He’s given up a ton of hard contact so far, which is something he used to limit, so it’s possible there’s some progression looming there. The A’s lineup is hitting their stride, after taking two from the Stro’s over the weekend. They put up 16 runs in those two wins, utilizing five long balls. With just 68 plate appearances against LHP this year, we look to 2020 when the A’s carried just a .301 wOBA and .152 ISO against southpaws.
MadBum has been brutal through his first two outings, racking up an 11 ERA in nine innings. Having faced off with the Padres and Rockies on the road, the veteran southpaw is due for a better performance. His 3% Barrel rate is a great number but the elevated xSLG and xWOBA are worrisome. The Diamondbacks feature one of the hotter hitters in baseball in Eduardo Escobar, who has homered in four straight games. As a team, they’re averaging just under seven runs per game over the L3, and as a team in 2020, they finished top 10 in average runs at home with 5.2.
Oakland finally got back on track over the weekend, following an 0-6 start. For the most part, their pitching did it’s job. However, I like Bumgarner to get back on track, with a little assistance from his offense and bullpen. The DBacks’ bullpen has a 3.05 ERA and while the 1.38 WHIP is a little worrisome, both totals are substantially better than Oakland’s pen right now.
Pick: Arizona ML (+110, Fanduel Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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