NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/12): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Friday, March 12th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/12

- Vegas Golden Knights (-115) vs. St. Louis Blues (-105) - 5.5O
- Arizona Coyotes vs. Minnesota Wild (-165) - 5.5U
- Ottawa Senators vs. Edmonton Oilers (-235) - 6.5U
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche (-220) - 5.5O
- San Jose Sharks (-114) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Vegas	1	27	21	16	15.75
St. Louis	20	17	20	15	18.5
Arizona	14	7	6	31	12.75
Minnesota	10	21	19	11	17
Ottawa	31	5	7	4	17.25
Edmonton	16	6	26	7	8.25
Los Angeles	12	13	18	22	10.75
Colorado	6	31	16	2	19.25
San Jose	30	3	11	14	16.5
Anaheim	21	18	4	29	16

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Vegas	24	27
St. Louis	19	3
Arizona	16	6
Minnesota	31	7
Ottawa	27	21
Edmonton	7	25
Los Angeles	6	6
Colorado	13	8
San Jose	22	16
Anaheim	28	15

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,300 DK / $9,200 FD) - McDavid has exceeded 20+ points over on DK in three straight games and gets another great matchup against Ottawa. In just six games against them this year, McDavid has recorded two goals and 11 assists and has recorded a total of eight points over his last three games played.
Joel Eriksson Ek, MIN ($4,800 DK / $5,000 FD) - Eriksson Ek is coming off of a two-goal performance against Vegas and while we shouldn't expect that every night moving forward, he should see a good amount of minutes as he centers the Wild second line and the top power-play line.
Tomas Hertl, SJS ($3,900 DK / $5,700 FD) - Hertl is coming off of the league's COVID protocol and should be returning to the Sharks lineup against the Ducks. Hertl should resume centering the second line for San Jose while also being a member of the second power-play unit. Hertl has 11 points in 16 games played this season and San Jose needs his goal-scoring ability in a winnable matchup.

Other centers to consider: MacKinnon, Couture, Kopitar, RNH, Schenn, Henrique, Karlsson, Dvorak, Bjugstad, Rask, Glass, Bonino

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Leon Draisaitl, EDM ($8,700 DK / $8,300 FD) - Draisaitl is coming off of a dominant performance where he recorded three goals and two assists on six shots against Ottawa on Wednesday night. Draisaitl has scored six goals and nine assists in just six games against Ottawa and he certainly stands out as a locked player in all formats.
Mark Stone, VGK ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) - Stone has been playing very well lately as he has generated 11 points over his last five games played. In just his lone game against the Blues this year, Stone racked up three assists and three shots on goal and makes for a fine mid-priced tournament play on this slate.
Tyler Pitlick, ARI ($2,900 DK / $5,700 FD) - Pitlick has seen an increase in playing time as he has moved up to the top line and is skating on the second power-play unit for the Coyotes. Pitlick has been active offensively over the last several games as he has netted three goals and taken 12 shots during his most recent three-game stretch.

Other wings to consider: Pacioretty, Rantanen, Kane, Fiala, Meier, Yamamoto, Batherson, Kaprizov, Keller, Tarasenko, Kempe, Stuetzle, Labanc, Kessel, Zegras, Parise

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Tyson Barrie, EDM ($6,400 DK / $5,600 FD) - While there are some great pay-up options on this slate, Tyson Barrie really stands out from the defenseman position. Barrie has been very active on the offensive end over his last three games as he has recorded four points and taken 18 shots on goal during that three-game stretch.
Samuel Girard, COL ($5,200 DK / $5,200 FD) - Cale Makar is set to be out for some time so Samuel Girard will continue to skate on the top defensive pairing as well as quarterback the top Avs power-play line. Girard is riding a three-game point streak and should continue to have success with him seeing over 26 minutes of ice time per game.
Erik Karlsson, SJS ($4,700 DK / $4,500 FD) - While Karlsson is still trying to prove his value offensively, he is seeing consistent ice time and is very solid at racking up peripheral stats. Karlsson does receive a bump as he is now skating on the top power-play unit in addition to the top Sharks defensive pairing which hopefully equates to more chances offensively.

Other defensemen to consider: Burns, Nurse, Chabot, Chychrun, Theodore, Doughty, Toews, Brodin, Faulk, Suter, Dunn

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Mike Smith, EDM ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) - Mike Smith had another strong outing against Ottawa on Wednesday night as he stopped 21 of 22 shots faced. Smith is now 2-0 on the season against the Senators and is 8-2 on the year with a 2.18 goals allowed average and a .927 save percentage. Smith might get some rest on Friday so if that is the case, you can always pivot to Mikko Koskinen who is still a viable option in net for all formats.
Kaapo Kahkonen, MIN ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD) - One of the main reasons the Wild have been so successful lately has been because of Kaapo Kahkonen. He has won eight straight games and has been able to suppress some great offensive teams like Vegas and Colorado. Kahkonen is 11-4 on the year with a 2.19 goals allowed average and a .922 save percentage and is 1-0 against the Coyotes this year.
Martin Jones, SJS ($7,600 DK / $6,900 FD) - I know this might one selection that might have you scratching your head but before you dismiss it, please hear me out! Jones is 2-0 against Anaheim this season with a 2.88 goals allowed average and a .908 save percentage which is considerably better than his 3.84 goals allowed average and .879 percentage on the year. In just two games against the Ducks, Jones has stopped 59 of 65 shots so the shot volume could be there for him to hit his value.

Other goalies to consider: Binnington, Raanta

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

EDM 1
- Draisaitl/ McDavid/ Yamamoto (Nurse/Barrie, d-men add on)
  - The top Edmonton line features two of the five best point-getters in the entire league in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. This line has seen 56 minutes of ice time and while together, they have an expected goal for rate of 4.39 per 60 minutes. In addition, they're generating 43.9 scoring chances for and 22.49 high danger chances for which are some of the highest rates in the league. This line has scored three even-strength goals against the Senators this year while also generating 24 scoring chances and 14 high danger chances in just 29 minutes of ice time.
VGK 2
- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith
  - The pricing on the Golden Knight's second line is just too cheap to not consider for tournament builds. This line has over 220 minutes of ice time together this season and they are sporting a 2.83 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time. In addition,. they are generating 33 scoring chances and 12.48 high danger chances per 60 minutes. The top line of Vegas should draw the tougher defensive matchup of the Blues which means that the Karlsson line should draw an easier matchup.