NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/25): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for February 25th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, February 25th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/25

• • Boston Bruins (-135) vs. New York Islanders - 5O
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. Washington Capitals (-110) - 6.5U
  • Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-145) - 6O
  • Chicago Blackhawks vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-120) - 5.5O
  • Calgary Flames (-170) vs. Ottawa Senators - 6.5U
  • Dallas Stars vs. Florida Panthers (-130) - 6U
  • New Jersey Devils (-103) vs. Buffalo Sabres (-118) - 5.5O
  • Nashville Predators (-155) vs Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
  • Montreal Canadiens (-130) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 6O
  • Edmonton Oilers (-135) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6.5U
  • Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks - PPD

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD) - McDavid is the top spend up option at the center position and there is no question if he is on the slate he is always in play. He is averaging two points per game over his last four games played and half of those points have been goals.
• Evgeni Malkin, PIT ($5,500 DK / $7,400 FD) - Malkin has finally found his footing as he has now generated a point in three straight games and has been way more active on the offensive end as he has taken 14 total shots over his last four games played. Malkin has notched two goals against the Capitals this season and both of them have come on the power play so if stacking the Pens, make sure to include Malkin on both even strength stacks and the top power-play stacks as well.
• Lars Eller, WSH ($4,000 DK / $4,600 FD) - Eller was promoted to the top line and now centers the line of Ovechkin and Wilson which is a very skilled pairing to be with. The upside for Eller automatically goes up as he can be the beneficiary of racking up assists skating alongside the likes of Ovechkin.

Other centers to consider: Bergeron, Draisaitl, Eichel, Pavelski, Crosby, Pettersson, Aho, Roslovic, Suter, Norris, Stenlund, Danault, Kotkaniemi

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Patrick Kane, CHI ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD) - Kane has really turned up the heat offensively as he has recorded eight points over his last three games played. In addition, he is averaging close to four shots per game over that four-game stretch and has found success on the power play by generating three total assists during that four-game stretch as well.
• Blake Wheeler, WPG ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD) - Wheeler racked up three assists against the Canucks on Tuesday night and has now recorded five total points over his last four games played. The top line for Winnipeg has added DuBois which makes them a very intriguing line to stack and with the price tag of Wheeler being lower than what we are normally accustomed to, he could make as a great one-off in both tournament builds and cash line lineups.
• Dominik Kubalik, CBJ ($4,400 DK / $4,900 FD) - If the price tag is a little too much for Patrick Kane, you could always pivot on down to Kubalik which gets you exposure to the Blackhawks. Kubalik is off to a strong start to the season as he has generated 16 points in 20 total games and is coming off of a six-shot performance against Columbus on Tuesday where he recorded both a goal and an assist.

Other wings to consider: Pastrnak, Ovechkin, RNH, Toffoli, Forsberg, Laine, Olofsson, Puljujarvi, Miller, Benn, Reinhart, Bjorkstrand, Duclair, Kapanen, Coleman, Ryan, Batherson, Tatar, Zacha, Pearson, Dubois 

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Roman Josi, EDM ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) - Josi was extremely active on Tuesday night against the Red Wings as he took five shots on goal and recorded two assists. This has been a down year for Josi from a point-scoring standpoint but he still sees plenty of ice time and he is bound to turn it around at some point. Detroit has conceded the most goals to defensive players this year so Josi is in a good spot to net a few goals.
• Shea Weber, MTL ($4,800 DK / $5,300 FD) - This is the lowest price point we have seen on Shea Weber in quite some time and he is coming off of a two-goal game against the Senators. Weber only has nine points on the season but is showing signs of heating up as he has racked up 18 peripheral stats over his last three games while also taking 13 shots on goal during that three-game stretch.
• Mike Matheson, PIT ($3,700 DK / $3,600 FD) - Matheson has been a great value play lately and could see a small bump in production should Letang miss some time due to an injury as he could get thrust up to the top power-play unit. Matheson does a great job racking up peripheral stats as he is averaging four peripheral stats per game over his last four games played.

Other defensemen to consider: Carlson, Hedman, Barrie, Nurse, Petry, Jones, Hughes, Klingberg, Murphy, Subban, Chiarot, Larsson, Myers, Schmidt, Lindel, Butcher, Brannstrom

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Pekka Rinne, NSH ($8,100 DK / $7,000 FD) - Pekka Rinne looked very dominant on Tuesday night as he recorded his first shutout of the season against Detroit. Rinne stopped all 24 shots that he faced and he is now 3-1 over his last four games played. Rinne is rounding into form as he has allowed under two goals per game over his last four games played and is 2-1 against Detroit on the season. His pricing on FD is extremely cheap which makes him a great option for both cash games and tournaments if he draws the start Thursday night.
• Connor Hellebuyck, WPG ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD) - While the matchup against Montreal is a tough one, Hellebuyck could see enough shot volume to make up for several goals that could be scored on him. Hellebuyck is 2-2- over his last four games played and has seen 30+ shots in three out of four of those games. Montreal leads the league with 34 shots taken per game so the upside is there on DK as Hellebuyck can easily hit the save bonus in this matchup.
• David Rittich, CGY ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) - Rostering Rittich isn't the most exciting thing to do but he is certainly in play against the Senators. Rittich is 1-1-1 over his last three games played and is 1-3-1 on the season with a 2.29 goals allowed average and a .919 save percentage. One thing that is certainly exciting about Rittich is the form that he is in as he shutout the Maple Leafs on Monday night and then held Toronto to just two goals on Wednesday night. Rittich is in great form but make sure he gets the nod in net as Calgary is on the end of a back-to-back.

Other goalies to consider: McElhinney, Khudobin, Koskinen

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• EDM 1
  • RNH/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, d-men add on)
    • It is beginning to get old but the McDavid line is certainly in play against Vancouver tonight and should be a very popular stacking option. During Tuesday night's game against the Canucks, this line generated 11 scoring chances and five high-danger scoring chances in just 13 minutes of full even-strength skating. On the season, this line carries a 3.44 expected goals rate per 60 while generating 37.63 scoring chances and 16.56 high danger chances per 60. This line saw a heavy dose of the Horvat line which is a line that can certainly de dominated at even strength.
• WPG 1 
  • Dubois/ Scheifele/ Wheeler (Morrissey, d-men add on) 
    • The new-look Jets top line was able to generate a goal in 13 minutes of ice time together against the Canucks on Sunday night. They are relatively inexpensive and in a fast-paced matchup against the Canadiens, they could be a secondary stack to consider. During those 13 minutes, they generated three scoring chances and one high danger opportunity and should be able to improve upon these numbers as time goes on. When the Jets are at home, they like to take their top line and match them up with the opposing team's bottom-six forwards which is a major benefit to this Jets top line which means they will avoid the Gallagher line for Montreal.
• CHI 1/PP Unit
  • DeBrincat/ Suter/ Kane (Boqvist, d-men add on)
    • The top line for Chicago continues to roll and should be another option to consider for tonight's slate. The Kane line generated six scoring chances and three high-danger chances in just 13 minutes of even-strength ice time against Columbus on Tuesday night. Against Columbus this season, the Kane line is generating 23 scoring chances per 60 while also creating close to seven high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time as well. The Blue Jackets have one of the worst penalty-killing units in the league while Chicago has converted 33% of their power plays which is tied for the best percentage in the league. While this stack is expensive, they could pay off their high cost if they are able to get on the odd-man advantage several times throughout the course of the game.

Other Stacks to consider: BUF 1, WSH 1, PIT 1, EDM 2, FL 2, MTL 3

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Eichel (1.35X), Point (1.4X), Bergeron (1.45X), Pavelski (1.55X)

W: Pastrnak (1.15X), Wheeler (1.3X), Svechnikov (1.35X), Forsberg (1.6X), Huberdeau(1.75X)

D: Hedman (1.1X), Carlson (1.25X), Klingberg (1.3X), Josi (1.35X)

G: Khudobin (1.5X), Varlamov (1.7X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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