NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (2/21): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Chris Wassel delivers his top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for February 21st including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday, February 21st, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/21

• • Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators
  • Boston Bruins vs. Philadelphia Flyers (outdoors from Lake Tahoe)
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Vancouver Canucks

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis 

With a small three-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the six goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one even touch the two North Division clashes? It's a great question. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.

The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, Montreal sometimes has trouble with Ottawa. Montreal comes off an emotional game versus Toronto. How will they react against a rested Ottawa team with nothing to lose? Jake Allen is the highest-priced goalie on this slate due to having the perceived best chance at a win.

NHL DFS Power Play Analysis

The Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils are sadly not on the main slate. However, Ottawa and Montreal are along with Vancouver and Winnipeg. Finally, Boston and Philadelphia play from Tahoe around dinner time local time. That should reduce some of the ice issues that plagued Vegas and Colorado early on Saturday.

It will be easier on this slate to stack lines, etc but also easier to go with one-offs, etc.

The earlier North Division game features Ottawa and Montreal who typically score a lot of goals when they get together. Chances should be plenty and both teams are capable of giving up three or more goals with ease. The last matchup was a 2-1 dud but expectations are higher in this clash from the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa.

Finally, Vancouver and Winnipeg are the late game and could provide some offensive fireworks. The Vancouver power play could see some unexpected play. Winnipeg's top line has been firing on all cylinders along with Nik Ehlers in particular.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Patrice Bergeron, BOS ($8,100 DK / $7,900 FD) - Bergeron is our top pick because of the goal potential. His best fantasy performance was against Philadelphia earlier in the season where he hit the DraftKings shot bonus while racking up a goal and three assists. Philadelphia gives up the second-most shots per 60 in the NHL at even strength and 30th overall in shots allowed defensively. This is the exact opposite of last season which should suit Bergeron fine. Top lines keep having their way with or without Sean Couturier in the lineup. Keep playing Bergeron and do not overlook Charlie Coyle, who will be the second center in place of David Krejci (injured). Will we see David Pastrnak paired more with Bergeron?
• Chris Tierney, OTT ($3,200 DK / $3,800 FD) - We are digging into the lowest tiers tonight to scour out value. Tierney is an elevated risk because he does not always generate the most chances and shots. However, he finds a way to get points (a three-game assist streak). It strikes people that Ottawa comes in as the rested team and could easily get trucked possession-wise. Despite that, players like Tierney carry value

This is again a small slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. It seems expected. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with Winnipeg and Vancouver as they are the late game.

NHL DFS Wing Picks

• Nik Ehlers, WPG ($6,900 DK / $7,000 FD) - It is too hard not to try and take one more shot at this with Ehlers scoring five goals and seven points in his previous eight games. That includes averaging just over four shots on net a contest. Ehlers carries speed to burn and will test Vancouver's less-than mobile defense early and often. That is what to look for on Sunday night is players that can stretch defenses. Matchups to exploit include the obvious Boston wingers against Philadelphia's bottom pairings. However, Ehlers is cheaper than Boston's top-two wingers and carries as much or more potential. Tyler Toffoli is a slightly higher-risk but has had six scoring chances in two meetings with Ottawa and been snakebitten so far.
• Joel Farabee, PHI ($4,800 DK / $5,100 FD) - Some value can be found once again with Farabee as he has managed to stay on the top-six in Philadelphia for longer than anyone has expected. The result has been six goals and nine points in his last ten games. As long as he produces, Farabee will be just fine. His shot volume has been around 2.5 shots per game and Boston's defense has shown some vulnerability to a player with Farabee's vision and mobility. Farabee plays sometimes as a center off the right-wing at times. This expects to throw off Boston a little especially if Farabee shoots a bit more than expected outdoors Sunday evening.

Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Look at how much Blake Wheeler has dropped on DraftKings ($5,100) for example. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Charlie McAvoy, BOS ($6,000 DK / $5,400 FD) - With Jeff Petry banged up and struggling, McAvoy vaults to the top of the list as far as defensemen on this short slate. He has 3+ shots in three of his last four games with about as many scoring chances. Philadelphia ranks the fifth-worst in the league when it comes to unblocked shot attempts from the point. Overall, McAvoy has ten assists and 11 points in his last ten games. His ability to combine physical play with quick decision-making expects to cause the Flyers some fits on Sunday night.
• Josh Morrissey, WPG ($4,300 DK / $4,500 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Morrissey still sees some first-unit power-play time and that is essential in looking at plays. Neal Pionk is the Winnipeg alternative for more risk/reward while Morrissey has the safer floor against Vancouver (30th in goals allowed per 60). Ivan Provovov and Shea Weber may also be safer picks but particularly Weber because of matchup and Ottawa's poor special teams.

Sneaking in Tyler Myers could pay off here. One can pick on Myers as well so he who the defenseman is up against line wise from Winnipeg. Expect a few more picks as we get some line matchups later in the day. For value options, pairing shifts will be more significant.

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Jake Allen, MTL ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD) - With the higher chance of a win, Allen gets the nod here. What may be crazy is the fact that Allen has outplayed Price in the early going. He has seen 30+ shots in each of his last four starts and again Montreal will not be rested so Ottawa should be able to pad their shot total. Ottawa allows the most DFS points for goalies in the NHL too. It is part of the reason why Allen's price is where it is tonight. Can Allen maintain his save percentage tonight and generate decent enough volume to tally a nice point total? Stay tuned.

Other goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (back to back scenarios and short slate)

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• WPG 1
  • Scheifele/ Connor/ Wheeler (Morrissey, D-men add on)
• MTL 2
  • Drouin/ Suzuki/ Anderson (Weber, D-men add on)
• PHI 1
  • Couturier/ JVR/ Farabee (Provorov, D-men add on)

Other Stacks to consider: BOS 1, MTL 1, PHI 2, WPG 2, VAN 2, VAN PP 1

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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