DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Break The Slate

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for the Conference Championship slate. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hello RotoBallers! It's championship time in the NFL, which means a limited slate packed full of talented teams. We'll specifically be looking at the DraftKings two-game Conference Championship slate in this article.

The NFL is ever-evolving week to week and that's especially the case in the playoffs. All of these teams are very good, which means the positional matchups that we want to target will be less obvious and a bit thinner. We'll also need to take player popularity into account, as contrarian thinking can really help us gain leverage on these types of slates. It can all be a little tougher than the normal DFS formats we see during the regular season, though it does often make for an interesting and fun DFS slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for NFL Conference Championship Slate. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks Picks

Aaron Rodgers - TB @ GB ($6,500)

I highlighted Aaron Rodgers in this article last week and this is what I led with:

"Pretty much everything about this matchup against the Rams says, "NO", but dammit, when Aaron Rodgers is the fifth-highest priced QB on a four-game slate, I say, "YES"!"

Well...here we go again, as Rodgers faces yet another difficult matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs, but once again comes in too far down the DraftKings salary scale.

The Bucs own a defensive unit that ended the regular season ranked fifth in the league in Pass Defense DVOA, but - like the Rams Defense that Green Bay faced last week - have an even better run unit that ranks first in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA, which indicates that the Pack will likely be funneled to the air offensively this Sunday.

Rodgers undoubtedly has a tough task ahead of him against this Bucs unit, but as I mentioned last week, there are spots where we must be willing to value "talent over matchup"...especially on a two-game slate such as this. Rodgers is currently projected to garner roughly half the ownership of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Are those players spectacular? Absolutely. Can Rodgers outscore both on this slate? Absolutely.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs Picks

Leonard Fournette - TB @ GB ($5,300)

I'm certainly not here to dive into Leonard Fournette's overall ability or value to a team over the course of a season, a conversation that would require a much bigger article. No, we're laser-focused on what type of impact Fournette can have in a single, crucial game, and "Playoff Lenny" has been a difference maker for the Bucs in this postseason.

Over Tampa Bay's two playoff games Fournette has touched the ball 45 times and amassed 234 total yards with two TDs...and those numbers came with Ronald Jones active last week against New Orleans! We know that Bucs HC Bruce Arians tends to trust veterans over younger players and it wouldn't be shocking for Tampa Bay to once again lean on Fournette in this matchup against Green Bay.

The matchup is a winnable one, as the Packers have struggled to contain opposing RBs both on the ground and through the air this season. The Pack have allowed an average 4.41 yards per carry to opposing rushers and have been even more ineffective against pass-catchers out of the backfield, relinquishing a massive 6.91 yards per target to the RB position, a mark that ranks 31st in the NFL

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers Picks

Davante Adams - TB @ GB ($8,000) 

We're just gonna keep on playing the hits here with Davante Adams and this Packers offense. Adams has been the best receiver in football this year and posted video-game DFS numbers in the process. Not only is he unbelievably talented, but Adams stays extremely busy. He led the NFL in targets per game (10.6) and that volume makes him as close to a "sure thing" as we'll find at the WR position from week to week.

He'll square off against a Bucs pass defense that is undoubtedly sound and Carlton Davis (the corner that will be tangling with Adams in this matchup) has been exceptionally good this season. However, like with his teammate Aaron Rodgers, this is a spot where I'm willing to bet on " talent and volume overcoming matchup".

John Brown - BUF @ KC ($4,300)

On a two-game slate we're forced to be contrarian to be successful. We know that Stefon Diggs operates as the primary threat in this Bills receiving corps, but the need to be contrarian pushes us to envision alternative ways that games could play out.

John Brown has been nagged by injuries throughout the season (shocker), but he's coming off an 11-target outing against the Ravens last week and has displayed game-breaking explosiveness throughout his career.

Since returning to the Buffalo lineup in Week 17, Brown has averaged a healthy aDOT of 14.8. The matchup against Charvarius Ward isn't necessarily one we'd normally go out of our way to target, but Brown represents a potentially high-upside way to make our rosters unique on this slate.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends Picks

Travis Kelce - BUF @ KC ($8,000)

This article has a "Kelce Rule", which I think we established around Week 6 of this season and has worked well for us. The rule is pretty simple..."If Travis Kelce is available on the Main Slate, you play him. Ignore the price. Ignore the ownership. Ignore the matchup. Just play him."

Robert Tonyan - TB @ GB ($3,600)

If you're reading this, you must be considering breaking the "Kelce Rule". Not sure why you would want to do that, but if you aren't able to roster Kelce, you might want to look at Green Bay's Robert Tonyan. At just $3.6k, Tonyan offers a massive discount when compared to Kelce, but still brings some nice upside to the table.

We know that Davante Adams is Option A, B, & C for the Packers passing attack, but Tonyan has undoubtedly had his moments this season, posting 11 TDs and 646 receiving yards on 63 targets. This Tampa Bay defense has been solid overall, but opposing TEs have found some success against them. The Bucs have relinquished nine TDs and 939 yards to the position this year, while allowing a massive 71% catch rate to opposing TEs.

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