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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for January 6th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
With 11-games on the slate, there is no shortage of options to choose from. The biggest problem will be finding the games that will stay close and allow for some easier over bets. The Pistons-Bucks contest is the only double-digit spread for tomorrow, but even looking at the choices for that specific game, it's easy to find some consistency to place some money on.
Jerami Grant continues to put up career numbers and in the first meeting between these two teams Monday, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 43 points on 24 shots. This helped four other Milwaukee players post at least four assists versus Detroit once already, so if you are contemplating running with the over on Jrue Holiday's assists, or Khris Middleton's made three's, the spacing will be there.
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WAS@PHI
Bradley Beal (WAS) OVER 28.5 Points - Joel Embiid (PHI) OVER 27.5 Points
There would be much more comfortability in this if Joel Embiid's point threshold was a bit lower, but scoring at least 29 points in the last two meetings between these teams is promising. The same can be said for Bradley Beal, who hasn't scored below 30 against Philadelphia since December 2019.
Beal also added 10 assists that performance, so the upside is there whenever these two teams face. The Wizards are seriously lacking talent and that means the offense runs through two facets, Beal and Russell Westbrook. On the other side, Embiid has struggled to take more than 10 or 11 shots in his previous two games, but that is attributed to the rest of the 76ers simply playing better. He will look to rebound against the Wizards frontcourt.
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OKC@NOP
Brandon Ingram (NOP) OVER 23.5 Points - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) OVER 20.5 Points
Brandon Ingram is going to be the most productive player on the Pelicans for the foreseeable future, and 23 points is what he is averaging on the season. It's an easy gamble on the over, even with some of the defensive studs on the Thunder. Ingram has been handing it to some of the best defenders on some of the best defenses in the league, so nothing against Luguentz Dort, but he doesn't have the skill to shut down someone like Ingram.
For the Thunder offense, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the focal point, but he hasn't scored over 20 points since the beginning of the season. In the first meeting between these two teams a week ago, Gilgeous-Alexander was only able to take ten shots, posting a measly eight points. The entire Oklahoma City team wasn't able to score efficiently that game, so look for Alexander's usage to skyrocket from 20% to the 30% it usually hangs around.
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BOS-MIA
Jayson Tatum (BOS) OVER 25.5 Points - Jimmy Butler (MIA) OVER 17.5
The Heat are not the team to play around against, but their defense isn't set up to stop Jayson Tatum completely, just limit him. He is the Celtics primary threat on offense, and whether is he able to score or not, he will get into the teeth of the defense to create some spacing for his teammates. Tatum has had slow starts this season, but that hasn't had any impact on his overall production. As long as he is healthy, there isn't a limit to how well he plays.
For Jimmy Butler, there isn't much to base his production off of, especially since he has only played in four of the Heat's six games this season. When he has seen a full workload, he is scoring over 17 points, he just has a very sketchy game log which comes off as intimidating for a safe over/under. If Butler get's the minutes, which there is no indication of him not against the Celtics, 17 is a modest night for him.
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