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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC on ESPN 16: Holm vs. Aldana on 10/3/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Talk about a night for the ages. That of last Saturday, I mean. Adesanya defended his belt against Cocky Costa, Dominick Reyes got rocked by Polish Jan Blachowicz (who lifted the LHW belt), and it all happened in the sandy beaches of Abu Dhabi. Well, more or less. The thing is, we had a fireworks-loaded event a week ago, and this weekend things had to get back to normalcy by regressing a bit in the excitement-index. But fear nothing, folks, because we're back in the United Arab Emirates for another one, and that can only mean good things are about to happen!
This card will be women-heavy, and in fact, the main event will be highlighted by two of the top Women's Bantamweight fighters in Holly Holm and Irene Aldana. Other than that, Julianna Peña and Germaine de Randamie will complete the women's side of the card, which will be paired with fights that will feature the likes of Yorgan the Castro and Dusko Todorovic in a four-fight main card.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC on ESPN 16: Holm vs. Aldana on 10/3/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Irene Aldana, $7800- vs. Holly Holm
No introduction needed for Holly. Holm has been a contender forever and ever, and she got the belt no less than from Mighty Ronda Rousey back in 2015. Since then, she's alternated championship fights with non-title bouts and she's currently the no. 2 ranked fighter in the division, with a 3-3 record since 2017. Aldana is 3-1 in 2019 alone and on a clear ascension toward a title fight, currently ranked seventh in the WBW division.
While Holm normally has a strike-laden approach, at least she attempts takedowns here and there if needed. Aldana, on the other hand, is a pure volume striker. She has attempted an average of 213 SS per fight through his career and no fewer than 171 in any longer-than-one-round fight. Holm, on the other hand, attempts way fewer strikes but lands them at a higher rate.
At this point in their respective careers, and given what they have done lately, I'd bet on the underdog Aldana here. She comes with a higher floor and is less dependant on early-stoppage bonus points, and this looks like a full 25-minute bout. High volume, extended fighting time, and five Ws in her last six fights are enough for me.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Carlos Felipe, $7300- vs. Yorgan de Castro
Quite interesting to have a couple of almost-newbies at the top of the card. Yorgan has stepped two times inside the Octogan, winning his first a year ago and dropping his last one last May. Carlos has only one fight--and one loss in his UFC career--coming in mid-July.
Both fighters' losses came on 15-minute fights ending in a decision, and de Castro won his lone one via KO against Justin Tafa in a short two minutes. Neither of these two has attempted a single takedown in their three fights combined, let alone landed one. They have no fantasy points from actions on the ground either.
When it comes to striking, Yorgan attempted 69 SS in his last bout landing 35% to Felipe's 121 attempts landing at a 36% clip. This looks close, and it looks bad as hell too if you're looking for big fantasy tallies. I'd go with Felipe upsetting Castro on this one in a dud of a fight overall.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Julianna Peña, $7600- vs. Germaine de Randamie
Germaine enters this fight as the second-to-last victim of the unstoppable Amanda Nunes, having dropped that fight back in December of 2019 and not appeared inside an Octagon since. Before that, though, she was on a five-fight winning streak which included defeating Holly Holm for the very belt.
Peña has fought just once since the start of 2017, back in July 2019 when she defeated Nicco Montano in a card that also featured her foe this Saturday. Only thing is, it took Peña 15 minutes to drop Montano while Germaine defeated Aspen Ladd with a 16-second KO.
Neither of these two is a high-volume striker, but de Randemie lands way more attempts than Peña. That being said, though, Peña is the one with the grappling game edge. It is not even an edge, per se, as Germaine straight discard that MMA technique. Pena attempts more than one takedown per round landing half of them (she's done so for all of her career), and although Germaine has looked dominant as hell this will be my third underdog-pick going with Peña for the W and the higher fantasy tally. If she can't prevent de Randemie for knocking her out, he'll get the highest DKFP on the night.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dusko Todorovic, $9100- vs. Dequan Townsend
Freshman fighter! Dusko is making his official UFC debut on Saturday, and so far so good for the Bantam: he's 9-0 as a pro and he can't carry a brighter record through his MMA career to this point. Townsend, a grizzled veteran with a much bulkier 21-11 record, is all of 0-3 in the UFC though. He has yet to score himself a W after dropping two decisions in his last two bouts and getting knocked out in his debut.
See, the most fantasy points Townsend has ever got to inside the Octagon are 14.0 in a 15-minute fight!!! That makes one laugh, for real. And Dusko is a newcomer, sure, but he can't do worse than that, right? If you're picking someone to put in your fantasy lineup, it must be Todorovic, no matter what.
This will probably end being a seemingly unwatchable, low-volume, no-takedown, putrid spectacle all around. It will go the distance, the ref will lift someone's arm after 15 minutes and a decision... and that arm will belong to the Serbian Todorovic.
