Hidden Gems to Watch - 2020 Infield Prospects

When baseball is played in 2020, it may include expanded rosters, increased doubleheaders, and a universal DH. With more prospects likely to see playing time, Jaime Steed looks at undervalued rookie infielders who could provide fantasy baseball value deep in drafts.

As we continue through this window of uncertainty, the chances of having a “normal” season are getting far less likely. And while we still don’t have any concrete solutions for having a 2020 season, some ideas seem to be more likely than others. Whether implementing regular doubleheaders in a truncated season or a universal designated-hitter, it seems likely that teams will need larger rosters.

There's also the possibility of there being no minor league season, meaning teams may have to choose between their prospects sitting at home for the year or playing sparingly for the big league team. All of this will mean teams are more likely to start the season rostering their fringe prospects, even if there are questions marks as to whether they're good enough to be a full-time player.

In this part of the series, we'll take a look at rookie infielders with an ADP over 400 in NFBC leagues. We all know about the Luis Roberts of the world, but this is about finding hidden gems at the back end of your drafts who are likely to see enough playing time to be a contributor to your fantasy teams.

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Mauricio Dubon (2B/SS, SF) 466 ADP

Dubon was likely starting the season with the Giants as their best second base option, with manager Gabe Kapler also stating he’ll see time in center field and possibly shortstop. That versatility could be more useful than ever with teams having to get flexible with their lineups.

At 25 years old and with 600+ minor league games under his belt, Dubon should be big-league ready more than anyone else on this list. He did appear in 28 games for the Giants last year and more than held his own, slashing .279/.312/.442  with four home runs and three stolen bases. This is right in line with Dubon's career line in the minors of .300/.348/.426, where he also stole 129 bases across his 609 games.

The three 30+ stolen base seasons between 2015-17 are enticing and according to Nick Mariano's expert rankings, Dubon has a solid projection for 2020:

If Dubon finds himself playing games in Arizona and not in the run-suppressing environment of Oracle Park, his projected numbers could be a bit on the light side. With a dearth of good options at second base after the first few rounds of drafts, Dubon should be on your radar as a late-round option.

Ryan Mountcastle (1B/3B/SS, BAL) 486 ADP

Mountcastle’s role with the Orioles was unclear heading into 2020, but with Trey Mancini announcing he will likely miss the whole of 2020 as he recovers from cancer treatment, a roster spot is now open. Baltimore's only other first base option is Chris Davis and while we all enjoyed his spring training resurgence, it’s hard to believe he'll suddenly be good again after two seasons hitting far below the Mendoza line - more specifically, a .168 AVG in 2018 followed by a .179 AVG in 2019.

On the other hand, Mountcastle had his best minor league season in 2019, hitting 25 homers in 127 Triple-A games. The power was accompanied by plenty of contact, and despite striking out 130 times last year with just 24 walks, Mountcastle posted a .312/.344/.527 slash line. This total package of production led to Mountcastle being named the International League MVP.

The biggest question facing Mountcastle is where he will play, having been drafted as a shortstop but moving to third base early in his career. Although he mainly played at first base last year, he also saw some time in left field. But with below-average defense, it’s unlikely Mountcastle will feature as more than a first base and DH option. All we’re worried about is that he’s in the lineup so he can do this.

Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT) 634 ADP

Like Mountcastle, Hayes also had his eyes on an Opening Day roster spot with the Pirates prospect seemingly in line for playing time at third base. Unlike Mountcastle, however, Hayes was being looked at for his defensive skills more than his bat. While Hayes does lack an impactful bat, he has does have good wheels, and getting any sort of speed at the hot corner is a rare commodity, indeed.

In 461 minor league games, Hayes has 66 stolen bases but had only hit 15 home runs in his 361 games prior to 2019. But in his first taste of Triple-A, Hayes hit 10 homers in 110 games so there is hope that the power may be starting to develop more in the 23-years-old. If a league-wide DH is applied in 2020, Hayes could wind up as the Pirates' everyday third baseman and allow the Pirates to use the DH spot for Colin Moran or a right-handed bat depending on how they use matchups.

To get a sense of his developmental path, consider that Hayes was a first-round pick by the Pirates in 2015, alongside teammate (and current starting shortstop) Kevin Newman. In late 2018 (when both seemed to be on the verge of a call-up) Hayes and Newman carried similar grades from MLB Pipeline but in the year since Hayes has upped the ante:

*Scouting grades are based on a 20-80 (in increments of five), with a 50-grade being considered MLB-average

Newman slashed .308/.353/.446 in his rookie season, with 12 HR and 16 SB. With scouts now viewing Hayes' tools as having surpassed where Newman's were prior to his callup, it's easy to have optimism that Hayes could have similar successes in 2020. With a near-700 ADP and a likely universal-DH in 2020, Hayes could provide cheap production at a position that's very top-heavy but light on the back end.

Bobby Dalbec (1B, BOS) 669 ADP

Dalbec’s path to the Major League is more blocked than those we’ve looked at so far. A corner infielder, Dalbec isn’t going to surpass Rafael Devers at third base but could be the regular first baseman in Boston.

Dalbec embodies the three true outcomes model of hitting. If we extrapolate his 383 minor league career games into a 162 game season, Dalbec would end with 33 homers, 80 walks, and 203 strikeouts with a .261 AVG. This makes would likely make him a genuine corner infield option in OBP leagues.

Being a right-handed hitter, Dalbec would be on the soft side if he were to in a platoon but he's a good enough defender to earn a more regular role. Alex Verdugo’s injury does mean a spot in the roster is open and while the DH spot is locked up by J.D Martinez, Dalbec could still become the everyday first baseman for the Red Sox if he impresses early.

Tyler Stephenson (C, CIN) 699 ADP

The first and only catcher on this list, Tyler Stephenson is currently the third catcher in the Reds’ depth chart (behind Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali). He does have the added benefit of being on the Reds’ 40-man roster after a stellar 2019 season in which he slashed .285/.372/.410 with six home runs and 44 RBI in 89 games at the Double-A (Chatanooga). Stephenson kept it up for 13 more games in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .347/.418/.490 with seven doubles.

Towering at 6-foot-4, Stephenson is tall for a catcher but has managed to shorten what was once a long swing, helping him reach a career-high .285 AVG last year. Although Barnhart and Casali are good defensive catchers, neither carry as much upside at the plate, while Stephenson has made good strides defensively.

After the Reds made progressive moves this offseason in a bid to reach the postseason, they might feel more inclined to fast-track Stephenson’s development, even though he’s yet to reach Triple-A. Stephenson might already be the best offensive catcher on the Reds roster and with his defense being much better than average, he could end up playing more games than both Barnhart and Casali.

In two-catcher leagues, Stephenson should be on your radar, especially after he flashed his bat for the Reds this spring, reminding everyone that he could be big league ready soon, if not now.

Danny Mendick (SS, CHW) 742 ADP

Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal have taken the headlines as the next stars of Chicago’s south side but unheralded prospect Danny Mendick already had a taste of the big leagues last year and showed enough to suggest he might forge a role in the White Sox infield. In 16 games, Mendick hit .308/.325/.462 with two home runs, following his best minor league season where he slashed .279/.368/.444 with 17 home runs in 133 Triple-A games.

The problem is that with Nick Madrigal, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Jose Abreu already on the roster, there isn’t really a spot for him. Leury Garcia is the most likely player for Mendick to usurp until Madrigal forces his way into being the everyday second baseman for the White Sox. A shortstop by trade, Mendick could comfortably transition to second base and he has the defensive skills to play anywhere else on the infield. Given how a 2020 season might look, utility infielders like Mendick could end up playing five or more games a week. That alone would offer enough opportunities for Mendick to accumulate counting stats but also give him a chance to show off the tool that's most likely to provide fantasy value. Speed.

Although Mendick didn’t get a stolen base in his 16-game Major League stint, he racked up 39 stolen bases in 265 games at Double- and Triple-A over the course of his last two minor league seasons. We’ve seen with Moncada that minor league steals don’t necessarily give you a green light with the White Sox. But if Mendick can chip in with some steals when he does play - given the rest of his batting profile and the potential to be multi-position eligible - he'll offer nice late-round value in deep leagues.

Bobby Bradley (1B, CLE) 748 ADP

The final infielder we’re looking at also had a short stint in the majors last year, albeit an unsuccessful one. In 15 games for the Indians, Bradley hit .178/.245/.356 with just one home run and 20 strikeouts. That was a far cry from the year he had at Triple-A (Columbus) where he hit 33 homers on the way to a .264/.344/.567 slash-line.

Bradley’s power has always been his biggest asset, clubbing 147 minor league home runs in 647 games, which averages out to 38 homers in 162 games. The drawback is the 779 strikeouts to his name in those 647 games and a career minor league batting average of .254.

His defense and lack of speed mean Bradley is limited to only being a first baseman or DH. With Carlos Santana and Franmil Reyes already locked into those spots, Bradley’s only hope for regular playing time is if Reyes were to see more time in the outfield. Of course, with the proposed changes to the 2020 season, that is well within the realms of possibility and after Jake Bauers struggled mightily last year, Bradley may surpass Bauers as the left-handed option the Indians go to more.

Bradley’s spring appeared to give him the foot up over Bauers to be included on the Indians’ opening day roster anyway as we can see here;

Anyone in need of cheap power late in their draft might be wise to keep a close eye on Bradley.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice