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Early in the baseball season, there are lots of trends to track as you try to find the best value plays on Monkey Knife Fight.
One of the factors to keep in mind is that we are still dealing with very small samples right now. So, even if players like Mookie Betts and Charlie Blackmon are off to slow starts compared to their previously exceptional production, they might still present good value on the board tonight.
At the same time, a red-hot Bryce Harper and Domingo Santana or an ice-cold Yasiel Puig need to be taken into account, too.
There are 12 games on the schedule today, so here are some angles to consider from each one of those games.
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SEATTLE-WHITE SOX
OVER/UNDERS
Domingo Santana OVER 1.5 RUNS + RBI – The Mariners outfielder is off to a great start, which includes leading the league in RBI with 11 through the first eight games.
L.A. DODGERS-COLORADO
RAPID FIRE
Charlie Blackmon -0.5 total bases vs. Kike Hernandez – This is trading on Blackmon’s overall track record, which includes three straight seasons with at least 300 total bases, as opposed to his relatively poor start to the season when he has nine in seven games.
SAN DIEGO-ST. LOUIS
OVER/UNDERS
Manny Machado UNDER 2.5 TOTAL BASES – While Machado has the strong historical track record, he is off to a slow start this year and has what appears to be a difficult match-up, with Jack Flaherty on the mound for the Cardinals.
TAMPA BAY-SAN FRANCISCO
RAPID FIRE
Brandon Belt -0.5 total bases vs. Willy Adames – San Francisco’s veteran first baseman is still solid at the plate, and has a dozen total bases through seven games, while Adames is finding out that regression comes for us all and has just one hit in his first 23 at-bats this season.
CINCINNATI-PITTSBURGH
OVER/UNDERS
Yasiel Puig UNDER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – It’s been a difficult start to Puig’s Reds career, as he has three hits, and four total bases, in his first 20 at-bats.
MINNESOTA-PHILADELPHIA
OVER/UNDERS
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 RUNS + RBI – Harper is tearing the cover off the ball, with a 1.840 OPS, and a home game against Minnesota is reason enough to expect him to grab a couple runs + RBI, which is his current per-game average.
TORONTO-CLEVELAND
OVER/UNDERS
Randal Grichuk UNDER 2.5 TOTAL BASES – He has a new contract extension in his back pocket, but that’s still a pretty big number for the Blue Jays outfielder, who is averaging 2.0 total bases per game in the early going and gets a relatively tough match-up, facing Indians starter Shane Bieber in Cleveland.
BOSTON-ARIZONA
OVER/UNDERS
Zack Godley UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – Going back to last season, the Diamondbacks starter has gone five straight starts with five or fewer strikeouts. The Red Sox don’t seem like the best team to go up against when trying to emerge from that strikeout slump.
RAPID FIRE
Mookie Betts +0.5 runs + RBI vs. J.D. Martinez – Although Betts is off to a relatively slow start, compared to his previous production, he still offers value when given underdog status.
MIAMI-ATLANTA
OVER/UNDERS
Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – One of the game’s best hitting first basemen matched up against a rookie pitcher, Pablo Lopez. Even though Lopez had a strong showing in his first start, the edge here goes to Freeman.
OAKLAND-HOUSTON
RAPID FIRE
Khris Davis +0.5 total bases vs. Alex Bregman – As much as Bregman has struggled early in the year, it’s hard to make him a clear favorite over Davis, who is one swing away from picking up four total bases in one shot.
CUBS-MILWAUKEE
RAPID FIRE
Christian Yelich -0.5 total bases vs. Jesus Aguilar – Yelich is off to a fantastic start, with 24 total bases in seven games, and that’s good enough to keep leaning on him as the favorite in this contest.
TEXAS-L.A. ANGELS
RAPID FIRE
Mike Trout -0.5 total bases vs. Joey Gallo – There is the risk that Gallo get a hold of one and hits a home run but, otherwise, Trout has to be a prohibitive favorite, not only because he’s the best player in baseball, but he gets the benefit of facing Rangers pitching.
