Kent Shen's 2018 Punt Guide: FG% Primer (Premium Content)

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For a primer on punting, check out the RotoBaller NBA Punt Guide, beginning here.  Today we'll be looking at punting the category of field goal percentage.

Punt FG% is definitely one of my favorite strategies, one that I have been all too happy to pick up when it has been open over the years, and one that I've had considerable success with as well. Unfortunately, Punt FG% is not as strong as it has been in past years due to the absence of two of the three absolute best pivots the first few rounds have to offer in DeMarcus Cousins and Kristaps Porzingis. Boogie's volume is almost certain to decrease significantly as a member of the Western Conference All-St- err, Golden State Warriors, not to mention his return from a ruptured Achilles, one of the absolute worst leg injuries a player can suffer, means that there is no guarantee he will return to his past form physically.

While a draft and stash of our favorite Latvian Unicorn might be a shrewd move for a punt FG% team, there's an extra degree of risk involved in rostering him, and you can't really pencil Kristaps in as a pivot for your strategy, as it remains to be seen how he fares coming back from his injury as well. Seeing Boogie in the middle of round 2, or Porzingis somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round were clear signals to move into the strategy in the past, but now that those two have been relegated to question marks, punt FG% overall as a strategy takes a hit, but still remains a viable build for those drafting it properly.

Complement and Contrary

Punt FG% is by virtue, a guard heavy strategy, as the majority of players who get a jump when you disregard FG% are guards. Your complimentary stats are AST, 3s, STL and FT% with PTS being kind of a neutral stat. Naturally, you will be strong in these complementary categories by virtue of being in this build, as you'll be grabbing players who gain value in the build as well as devoting any flex slots during the season to guards as well.

That makes your contrary stats REB and BLK, and shoring up the two big man stats is the key to creating a strong punt FG% team. You can see why the loss of Cousins and Porzingis is such a big loss for the strategy, as both those guys neatly patched up your REB and BLK while still giving you strong production across the board in your other categories. Those of you with a good eye (or those who are still awake!) might have realized that I mentioned there were three best pivots for the build despite only mentioning two, which serves as the perfect lead for the next section.

Signals

Z-scores courtesy of Basketball Monster

Draymond Green falling to the early 30s or later in snake or below market value in auction

If you haven't guessed by now, the best pivot still standing for this build is Draymond Green, as Green greatly helps in both your contrary stats combining a point forward skill-set with elite defensive stats. The biggest signal that punt FG% is open will be seeing Green in the 30s in a snake, or for 5 or more dollars below market value in an auction, and you should absolutely move in if you are able to grab him here.

While you can't open a draft with a 1-2-3 like Harden/Cousins/Green anymore, just having Green late with any viable early round guard will set you up very strongly for the rest of your draft, and most successful punt FG% teams will have taken Green fairly late in the 3rd/4th round.

Joel Embiid falling to the 20s or later in snake or below market value in auction

Another great pivot for this build is Joel Embiid, and if you see The Process still on the board in the 20s, he makes a great upside pick for the build, covering both contrary stats very well. Embiid is less of a sure thing than Green, with more injury risk and his playmaking ability being based more on projectable upside than sure production, but he is still a solid piece for the strategy and getting him in the 20s is still great.

Getting Harden early in round 1 followed up by Embiid/Green at the 2/3 wheel is probably the best start for the strategy in this year's draft, and barring injury, will be the backbone of many winning punt FG% teams.

Later Round Pivots

Robert Covington, SF, Philadelphia 76ers

Anybody who's drafted punt FG% in the past knows Lord Covington is an all-star in the build. Since his breakout season in 2014, Covington has been a 3rd round value or better in the strategy, and there is no reason to expect that to change. His combination of coverage for rebounds and blocks plus elite steals and strong 3s and FT% make him one of few great pivots late, and one that you should be looking to scoop up even a bit earlier than his ADP - he will be worth that sticker price for punt FG% teams.

Aaron Gordon, SF, Orlando Magic

Air Gordon is another fantastic pivot in the mid rounds, and one you can target aggressively at his ADP. His uptick in 3s last season and another expected increase in points now makes him advance your strategy enough to take advantage of his excellent contrary coverage for blocks and rebounds. Surprisingly, he's still just 23 years old, which means there's still tons of upside left in the athletic wing.

Jaren Jackson Jr, PF, Memphis Grizzlies

Triple J is a great addition to the player pool this season, and is easily my favorite rookie in this build. He doesn't hurt you too bad in any of your complementary categories and brings extreme blocks upside with a good amount of rebounds as well. The type of stat spread he possesses is very unique at this stage of the draft, and he is someone you should be targeting fairly aggressively at his ADP.

Danny Green, SG/SF, Toronto Raptors

Another mainstay of the strategy, even in down years Green has provided useful out of position blocks for punt FG% teams over the years. The best part about Green is his price will most of the time be free, and getting him as a last pick or off the wire is a great way to shore up blocks a little bit at the end of your draft. It also means that if his role diminishes with his new team, it won't hurt at all to dump him back to the wire, making him a great no risk, medium reward type target for punt FG% teams.

Wendell Carter Jr, C, Chicago Bulls

While not as good as Jaren Jackson Jr., Carter Jr. is another excellent rookie for punt FG% and someone well worth taking a shot on at his ADP. As a center with projectable out of position steal and assist upside, and a clear path to consistent playing time on the tanking Bulls, Carter Jr. is another welcome addition to the player pool and someone who will be a fantastic late round pick to shore up your contrary cats for the build.

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies

Marc Gasol has been one of the top punt FG% pivots for a long time due to his excellent playmaking abilities leading to out of position assists, along with a high FT%, but he's more of a risk now due to age and injury concerns than he would have been 2 to 3 years ago. If he stays healthy, the Spaniard will continue to be an extremely valuable pivot, shoring up both your contrary stats while contributing across the board elsewhere.

Executing the strategy

By nature, it's nearly impossible to use punt-breakers in a % punt build, meaning you can disregard the concept entirely when running punt FG%. There might be some absolute corner case where you can pick up a high FG% center near the end of a week where you are on the absolute top end of variance for FG% to steal the category, but those cases are few and far between and you'll know when the possibility for such a move exists. My most successful punt FG% teams have been 0-X or 1-X in the punted category. It's hard to really change things, unlike with punting a counting stat, unless you're against another punt FG% team - when it will just come down to variance.

Your non-pivot picks for punt FG% will mostly be strong guards or small forwards, and you will be playing guys with those skill-sets in your flex spots in most weeks making you strong in the little man cats. Early to mid round risers in value for the build include Lonzo Ball (3rd round value), Taurean Prince (4th), DeMar DeRozan (5th), Danilo Gallinari (5th), Trevor Ariza (5th), Kris Dunn (6th), Ricky Rubio (6th), Lou Williams (6th) and Tim Hardaway (6th).

Late round pick risers include Luka Doncic (7th), Allen Crabbe (7th), D'Angelo Russell (7th), Zach LaVine (8th), Trae Young (8th), Carmelo Anthony (9th), Spencer Dinwiddie (9th), Dennis Smith Jr. (10th), Malik Monk (10th), Marcus Smart (11th) and Reggie Jackson (11th).

Remember that taking any of these guys below their expected return for the build means you are expected to get surplus value. Despite the hits that the strategy took, punt FG% is still fun to draft and still potent. It's a different kind of fun watching your team brick shot after shot and not caring one bit, so enjoy the ride and best of luck!

The RotoBaller Guide to Punting in Fantasy Basketball