RADIO
Welcome to Week 22 of the 2018 MLB season and a new week of our investigation into the steepest power trenders in baseball, whether those trends are positive or negative.
The season has almost made it through the month of August and the end of the regular season for fantasy baseball managers is immediately around the corner. Most fantasy baseball leagues have already had their trade deadlines come and go, and the only decisions left for managers to make in terms of personnel are whether players are worth the AB they are receiving and whether a player is worth adding for a postseason push. Getting the jump on identifying the catalytic variables and telling trends in these player's recent offensive performances could be the key factor in the management of your roster in the season's final months.
To do this, we'll be taking a look at the batting metrics that influence a hitter's power (Fly-Ball%, Pull%, Hard-Hit%, Exit Velocity) and determining whether you should buy or sell respectively on these surgers and strugglers. Since it's always best to wait and trudge through with the power play from players like Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, and Mookie Betts, we are going to be focusing on players who have seen a change in their power profile due to a change in batting metrics and has either warranted greater attention for waiver wire pickups or for a potential trade to cash in on what's left before it's too late.
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Power Risers
Kendrys Morales - (1B, TOR)
I'm not sure if you've heard, but Kendrys Morales has been hitting the ball well lately. Over just his last 37 AB he has smacked eight HR (seven of them coming in consecutive games) with a slash of .459/.512/1.108, and he has produced figures of 1.032 and .960 for OPS and four and nine for HR through 146 AB in July and August. Before his spectacular run of August, Morales's OPS had gone up each month from .499 in April to 1.032 in July, and that wasn't all that improved over the course of the year.
While his hard contact rate has hopped around between 27.8% and 50% for each month of the season, his ISO has increased steadily each month from .080 to .346 from April through August. While his current August GB/FB ratio of 1.29, his fly ball rate has steadily grown each month from 36.1% to 38.1% this month, which he has applied to a season-high 44.4% pull rate after only achieving marks as high as 37.9% in earlier months of 2018. After his poor showing in April, Morales produced excellent soft contact rates between 6.9% and 12.7% (including 11.1% this month) and has been making extremely strong contact on the year with an average exit velocity of 93 mph which goes a long way in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Kendrys Morales has been building up to this power crescendo all season and looks like a strong contender for a strong finish to the regular season in September.
Tyler Austin - (1B, MIN)
Tyler Austin has been dialed in since being dealt from the Bronx to Minneapolis, as he has compiled a 1.057 OPS and six homers since becoming a member of the Twins and has achieved a slash of .333/.359/.778 with five HR in just his last 36 AB. He has been hampered throughout the season by heavy strikeout volume and inconsistency. Austin has produced monthly strikeout rates in between 30% and 44.9%, and produced extremely poor figures for OPS of .489 and .516 and homers with three and zero for the months of May and June. This is no wonder, considering his hard contact rates for those months was just 28% and 14.3% respectively which still led to an ISO of .196 for May but a hideous .000 ISO for June.
In the first month of the season, Austin produced a .991 OPS and five dingers off of 46% hard contact and just 10.8% soft contact, leading to an ISO of .339. For August, he holds his highest ISO of the year at .413 from 43.8% hard contact with albeit his highest soft contact rate for the season at 18.8%. Despite his success this month in crushing balls yard, he has done so with a 1.50 GB/FB ratio and 31.3% fly balls. However, his August pull rate of 40.6% is his second highest of the year (after his figure of 54.1% for April) and is a significant improvement from his figures of 28% and 28.6% for May and June. Tyler Austin has found new life as a part of the Minnesota batting order and has been crushing the ball all season to the tune of an 89.8 mph exit velocity with a 405-foot average HR distance. Though it negatively impacts his offensive value to not be a member of the Yankees, taking AB in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, Tyler Austin looks to have found what approach worked for him in the first month of the season and is applying those mechanics for the Twins. Despite his inconsistency this year, he is a great candidate for a five-dinger month of September if he keeps pulling the ball, and produces very well-rounded statistics at the plate when performing at his best.
Todd Frazier - (3B, NYM)
At the risk of sounding rather cliche, as of August "The Toddfather" has been making fantasy baseball managers an offer they can't refuse. After three consecutive mediocre months of OPS ranging from .484 to .642 averaging two HR per month between May through July, Todd Frazier has been on point this month with a .261/.330/.470 slash and five dingers in 92 AB on his way to a .225 ISO. Before that icy stretch, he had managed an excellent month of work at the plate in 90 April AB with four homers and an OPS of .839, which translated to an ISO of .189. So what was different this month from his poor middle months of the season?
Frazier usually strikes out a lot, in fact, his strikeout rate per month has ranged between 17.4% and 23.7%. His figures for hard and soft contact this month sit respectively at 39.7% and 17.7%, while his figures in those departments for previous months have hovered in a similar range of 35.3%-47.4% and 13.9%-22.2%. Similarly, his pull rate this month of 45.6% is comparable to his range of 45.8%-63.2% from three of the previous four months. He had one month with a poor pull rate in July at 29.4%, but July was not the only month in which he struggled. One clear catalyst of his recent turnaround appears to be his GB/FB tendencies. His GB/FB ratio this month of 0.50 is his lowest to the season, and it comes off the back of sky-high 58.8% fly ball rate. Compared to his grounder-heavy work with the lumber in preceding months when combined with his solid frequency of hard contact, this appears to be the change that will allow Frazier's power to flourish. Todd Frazier's emergence from the depths of a three-month skid also has brought his highest stolen base total for a month this year (three) to add to his season total of eight, amidst a New York Mets batting order that has produced the fourth-most runs in all of baseball during August. He is a nice power/speed combo at the hot corner, but it is imperative that he continue to pair his hard contact with a high volume of fly balls.
Tyler O'Neill - (OF, STL)
Tyler O'Neill has certainly made the most of his limited time in the majors to this point, 89 AB to be exact. Out of the four months he has seen time in this year, he only saw a decent sample of AB in May (31 AB) and August (42 AB). In both months, he managed a great deal of success at the plate. In May, he managed to knock three bombs with a .290/.313/.613 slash that was pushed along by a 43.8% hard contact rate and 6.3% soft contact rate that resulted in an ISO of .323. That month he also produced a pull rate of 50% and a GB/FB ratio of 0.43 off of 43.8% fly balls. This month he has notched four dingers and his only two steals on the year with a slash of .310/.348/.643 from a hard contact rate of 44.4% and a soft contact rate of 14.8% that has so far netted an ISO of .333. Though his pull rate has dipped to 37% this month from his previously stellar marks, his GB/FB ratio was again low at 0.50 from a season-high 51.9% fly ball rate.
Tyler O'Neill has a big problem with striking out. His strikeout rate this season in total, limited as it may be, has been 38.5%, yet he has managed to succeed despite this. His minor league track record suggests that he is more than capable of producing a high volume of homers and steals, and his ability to pair his quality of contact and power (90.6 mph average exit velocity with a 406 foot average HR distance) with fly balls has resulted in a great deal of initial success for the 23-year old former top-100 prospect. His bat that has wreaked so much havoc in months where he has been presented ample opportunity will hold plenty of value down the home stretch for a Cardinals offense that was among the best in baseball for August by scoring 131 runs in 25 games.
Power Fallers
Jesus Aguilar - (1B, MIL)
Jesus Aguilar has had a magnificent season in which he has achieved an OPS between .770 and 1.099 and a HR total between four and ten in every month so far. This month he has a .818 OPS and four homers, but has struggled over his last 42 AB with a goose egg in the HR department and a slash of .238/.283/.262. After such a significant breakout season, it is reasonable to analyze whether Jesus Aguilar may be in for a regression over the final month of the regular season. So will the 28-year old Venezuelan native be able to do a lot of mean-mugging to the dugout camera in September?
Fortunately, many of Aguilar's offensive peripherals forecast sustained success at the plate moving forward. Though he has been striking out at a high clip of 23.2%, his plate discipline has remained solid with a high walk rate of 14.7%. His soft contact rate for August is a little higher than ideal at 17%, but his hard contact this month has been fantastic at 49.2% and together with his 0.95 GB/FB ratio (he has achieved a sub-1.00 GB/FB ratio every month of 2018) he has managed an effective ISO of .188. His season-long hard contact efficiency and an 89.9 mph average exit velocity have allowed Jesus Aguilar to consistently hit pitches deep throughout the 2018 campaign. One drawback from this month that may have been preventing him being able to rack up homers with the pace of previous months may be his pull rate, which has dropped by 8.7% since July to 35.6%, and while his pull rate has been decreasing steadily all season, this has been the biggest drop so far. Miller Park is hitter-friendly enough for Aguilar's batted ball contact to create solid offensive results, and in combination with his GB/FB tendencies and walk rate that negates a great deal of the impact of his strikeout rate, he appears to be a well-rounded option with huge power upside for September in a Brewers batting order systematically built to bash, if only all of their new infield could hit a stride at the same time.
Ozzie Albies - (2B, ATL)
To great merit, at age 21 Ozzie Albies produced a .834 OPS and 20 HR across 405 AB over the first half of the season, which earned him a much deserved All-Star selection. On that note, many factors of Albies' first half indicated that a regression was brewing and that he may have indeed been a sell-high candidate. Fast forward to the present moment in time and he has hit a single HR and accrued a pedestrian slash of .256/.302/.322 in 121 AB over the second half of the season. So what about Albies' work at the plate over the latter half of the 2018 campaign to this point has caused the predicted regression to come to fruition?
Several of Albies' offensive peripherals don't paint an optimistic picture for the season's home stretch. His strikeout rate has increased by 1.4% from the first half to the second half to 17.8%, while his GB/FB ratio increased from 0.93 to 1.17 off of 42.7% grounders in the second half. Though his pull rate actually increased to a sturdy 49% and his soft contact rate decreased from 18.3% to 12.2% in the second half of the season, his hard contact rate decreased from 38.5% in the first half of the season to an unacceptable 28.6% so far in the second half, causing his ISO to drop from .235 to .066 in the same time span. Ozzie Albies is extraordinarily talented and his well-rounded bat and ability to steal bases were among the many reasons he was at one time a top-15 prospect in all of baseball. However, his minor league track record and figures like his 87.1 mph average exit velocity and 391-foot average HR distance seem to place a hard cap on his power-hitting capability and indicate that he may have been hitting HR at an unsustainable rate for his skill set during the first half of the season. Even in the strong Atlanta batting order, proceed with extreme caution in deploying Ozzie Albies until he starts hitting fewer ground balls and for a hard contact rate at least north of 30%.
Yasiel Puig - (OF, LAD)
After an excellent stretch of offensive work from May through July, Yasiel Puig is currently producing three HR and a .743 OPS (his worst offensive month since April) in 67 August AB, and over the last 24 AB he has managed zilch in the way of homers and has a paltry .208/.269/.208 slash. With the rest of the Dodgers offense seemingly kicking into a higher gear amidst the pressures of the National League postseason race, is there any particular reason Puig has regressed in August and can it be easily (and quickly) reversed?
His strikeout rate this month of 22.5% is his highest yet of the year, and his GB/FB ratio sits at 1.25 this month off of a 31.4% fly ball rate that is his second lowest of the year. His pull rate of 47.1% this month is, fortunately, his second highest figure of the season, and although his soft contact rate of 23.5% is quite high, it is actually a moderate improvement on his season rate. The problem seems to lie within his 35.3% hard contact rate so far this month which, while being a comparatively solid rate, is yet another second-lowest figure of the year for Puig in August. His lowest month of hard contact came in his .500 OPS month of April when he produced a rate of 30%, and incidentally, this month has resulted in his second-lowest ISO of the season at .164 as compared to his lowest being .057 in April. The common denominator for the power results of Puig's plate appearances seems to be his hard contact rate, as produced rates ranging between 36.6% and 53.9% for the hot offensive stretch he had in between August and April. Yasiel Puig is good at hitting the ball hard. Though he makes a lot of soft contact, his 89.5 mph exit velocity and 412-foot average HR distance (not to mention his thrown punches in occasional field scuffles and bats broken in frustration) demonstrate that he is capable of Herculean hits. If making hard contact is the only issue holding him to his currently humdrum performance for August, there shouldn't be much to worry about, as he tends to get back on that track rather quickly. As an added bonus this year, he is also stealing bases at a more frequent clip than in years past, so he should return to being a bold power/speed threat for fantasy baseball managers come September.
Brandon Belt - (1B, SF)
It isn't a good sign for a player if most of the statistical categories that are vital to offensive success have either been steadily getting worse as the year stumbles on or have reached a new-worst in the current month, but that is the way things currently shake down for Brandon Belt. His walk rate (4.1%) and his strikeout rate (28.6%) for August are both his worst figures for a month on the year by a rather substantial margin, such as is the case for his 25% pull rate this month. Though his August soft contact rate of 15.6% is decent, his hard contact rate sits at a super stagnant 12.5% after ranging between 41.1% and 47.7% for the four preceding months. So even though his GB/FB ratio is just 0.47 this month off of 46.9% fly balls, his contact has been too light to take any sort of advantage from that thus far.
Most telling, Belt's monthly ISO has gotten steadily worse as the season progressed, going from .279 steadily down to .022 from April to August. This is consistent with the fact that his OPS and monthly homer totals have progressively gotten worse too, with the former going from .995 to .648 from April to July while his month by month HR totals dropped from six in April to just one in July, and this month he was descended even further down than that with not a single bomb to speak of in August with a slash of .174/.224/.196. With an 86.7 mph average exit velocity and 390-foot average HR distance, he ironically isn't giving himself a great chance to belt one out of the park in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. He has struggled immensely following his initial two months of offensive dynamite, and unfortunately, things have mostly gone from bad to worse for the 30-year-old first baseman for a Giants squad that has been one of the worst in baseball, post All-Star break. Recommendation: avoid Brandon Belt like the plague entering into September, a player who is exclusively trending downward does not a deep playoff run make.
