DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/1/18): MLB DFS Lineups

The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on July 1st, 2018. Elliott Baas' MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.

We've got a nine game featured slate this Sunday, and it's a day where bad teams will be in the spotlight on DFS. That's because some bad teams are in favorable hitting matchups, making this an interesting day on the hitting side of things. CWS @ TEX and LAA @ BAL both a 10 O/U, tied for the largest total on the slate. MIL @ CIN and WAS @ PHI are the next highest with a 9 O/U.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/1/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @ElliottBaasBB.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Charlie Morton, HOU (@ TB): $12,500

Morton is the most expensive pitcher on this slate, but he’s worth the price against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have a .306 wOBA and 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which is good for Morton, who has an astonishing 31% strikeout rate this season. He’s gotten at least 21 points in his last three starts, including a 42 point, 13 strikeout performance against the Blue Jays last time out. Morton is a pretty good bet to meet value, and this slate has plenty of value in terms of hitting which makes Morton more affordable.

Steven Matz, NYM (@MIA): $6,800

This one is a matchup play. The Marlins have a .282 wOBA, 22% strikeout rate, and a pathetic .108 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Miami’s lack of power and the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins park help neutralize one of Matz’s biggest issues, the long ball. The Marlins don’t have any players with an ISO above .200 against lefties on their roster. Matz has improved his performance compared to last season as well, his 21.4% strikeout rate and 4.17 SIERA both representing marked improvements. Against the Marlins Matz is a safe SP2 to pair with Morton.

DraftKings DFS Infielders

C – Kevan Smith, CWS (@TEX): $3,000

Smith has been hitting fifth when starting for the White Sox, and since Omar Narvaez started at catcher on Saturday he should be in the line. Smith has hit well in limited playing time, sporting a .345 AVG and 110 wRC+. Yeah, maybe his production isn’t sustainable over a long period of time, but this is DFS and he’s a cheap catcher. With just a 10% strikeout rate Smith puts the ball in play enough to give us a decent floor against Cole Hamels. In general, the White Sox are a solid stack versus Hamels as a pivot from either of the two teams suggested in this article.

1B – Chris Davis, BAL (vs. LAA): $3,000

Before you close your browser just hear me out on this one. Davis has been hitting fifth against righties since returning to the Orioles’ lineup regularly and has smashed two home runs in his last four games. The Orioles are also facing someone named Deck McGuire, who in fact isn’t a hunky action star from the 90s but a right-handed journeyman pitcher for the Angels. In 13.1 innings this season McGuire has posted a 6.08 ERA, and an 8.11 FIP. It’s only a small sample size, but it takes a special kind of bad to have a 6.08 ERA and have peripherals that suggest you’ve been lucky. McGuire has allowed five home runs in 13.1 innings and has a 1.33 K/BB ratio. Davis is primarily a tournament play, but he makes it easy to stack the middle of Baltimore’s lineup.

2B – Rougned Odor, TEX (vs. CWS): $4,100

Odor got off to an atrocious start to the season, but he seems to have found his swing again. Over the last two weeks Odor is hitting .282 with three home runs and an .890 OPS. He’ll be hitting fifth for the Rangers against Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has a decent ERA at 3.73, but his peripheral stats suggest that he’s been much worse. Lopez has a 5.17 SIERA, 1.72 K/BB ratio, and has allowed 11 home runs in 94 innings. He has essentially ridden a .255 BABIP and 7.8% HR/FB ratio for half of the season. He has a 4.72 ERA on the road, and now must pitch in the hitter’s paradise known as Globe Life Park. The Rangers are another team that can be stacked relatively cheaply in a good hitting environment.

3B – Adrian Beltre, TEX (vs. CWS): $3,800

Beltre is habitually underpriced on DraftKings as the Rangers’ cleanup hitter. He’s an especially good play today against Lopez as part of a Rangers’ stack. Beltre’s .369 OBP gives him a good floor as Lopez tends to be wild, allowing 3.73 BB/9.

SS - Manny Machado, BAL (vs. LAA): $5,200

Machado is a must-have in any Orioles stack, as he is far and away their best hitter. Machado is an MVP-caliber player posting the best offensive numbers of his career. Through 354 PA Machado is hitting .308 with a .932 OPS and .248 ISO this season. $5,200 is actually quite reasonable for a player of Machado’s caliber against a pitcher of McGuire’s caliber. Elvis Andrus ($3,900) would be a decent pivot in a Rangers’ stack, but Machado is definitely the top option.

DraftKings DFS Outfielders

OF – Mark Trumbo, BAL (vs. LAA): $4,100

The Mark Trumbo of old returned in June, as he slugged six home runs and posted a .239 ISO for the month. The calendar may be turning over today, but the weather is still hot, the Angels’ pitcher is still bad, and Trumbo still has his massive power. He’s been the Orioles’ cleanup hitter and with Trumbo we’ve got the Orioles’ 3-4-5 hitters for a total of $12,300, less than Charlie Morton.

OF – Colby Rasmus, BAL (vs. LAA): $3,500

Rasmus isn’t a great player. Heck, he isn’t even a good player. The reason to play him is because Rasmus has hit leadoff or second four times over the past week. If Rasmus is hitting that high in the lineup Sunday he’s a tremendous value. He had a .298 ISO in limited playing time last season and a .195 ISO for his career, so Rasmus has some power upside against McGuire in this matchup. If he’s not in the lineup or not hitting high in the lineup then either Trey Mancini ($3,500) or Adam Jones ($3,600) would be easy swaps.

OF – Joey Gallo, TEX (vs. CWS): $4,000

We’ve filled our lineup with plenty of all-or-nothing power hitters, so we’ll cap it off with the king of the three true outcomes Joey Gallo. Reynaldo Lopez has been worse against lefties than righties, allowing a .324 wOBA and .418 SLG against left-handed hitters this season. The one hesitation with Gallo is lineup spot. If he’s hitting sixth or higher then Gallo is a good play, but if he’s hitting seventh or eighth then Gallo is not a good play at this price. Watch the lineups with this one. If he’s batting too low then Michael Conforto ($4,000) or Avisail Garcia ($3,800) are solid alternatives.

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