RADIO
The Texas Rangers are a team with serious playoff aspirations. Look no further than their interest in Ian Desmond for left field to see the team is willing to entertain all possibilities to contend in the AL West. The Houston Astros made a serious step forward in 2015 and the Rangers are the only competition to take the crown (No offense, Angels and Mariners).
While Desmond would be a boost to the offense, it'll be up to the pitching staff to keep things afloat. Cole Hamels was brought in to be the ace, but the X-factor is Mr. Yu. For fantasy players, the debate is: a) can Yu Darvish be trusted in 2016 and b) when should he be drafted. Let's take a closer look at what made Yu successful pre-2015 and whether he should be on the fantasy radar going forward.
Editor's Note: Make sure you head over to our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. We have released our new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats and more! It's all in one place, and all free.
2015 Year in Review
As you likely know, Darvish did not pitch in 2015 and hasn't pitched since August 9th, 2014, after leaving for elbow inflammation and eventually Tommy John surgery. He missed his age 28 campaign, a time frame when most pitchers are hitting their prime. It's a shame, but let's dive into his 2014 numbers for a refresher.
In 22 starts Darvish had a 3.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 182/49 K/BB ratio. He struck out 30% of batters faced and produced ace-like numbers. He also had an improved walk rate (8.1%) and had an uncharacteristically high .334 average on balls in play. Look for that to regress closer to his career average (.295), in turn knocking some points off his WHIP.
If there's one area Darvish needs to improve, it's his pitch selection. He threw his fourseam, sinker, or change 57.3% of the time; hitters slugged .426, .453, and .632 versus those offerings, respectively. The pitch he dominated with? The slider. He threw it 2,021 times in 2014, and resulted in a .154 average and .231 slugging percentage. PITCHf/x graded the slider as third best in baseball (16.4 wSL), behind only Clayton Kershaw and Tyson Ross. Safe to say things were going gravy till August 9th, 2014.
2016 Fantasy Outlook
So the question becomes can we trust Darvish? He only started his pitching program last August, with the current expectation for Darvish to arrive in May. Darvish has already showed increased velocity in his debut at Spring Training. Rangers pitching coach Doug Brocail mentioned no concerns with rust in Yu's delivery as well.
There's some serious risk and unknowns involved with how a pitcher will bounce back from Tommy John surgery. Of the notable starting pitchers to undergo the surgery in the past five years (Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Tim Hudson, Edinson Volquez, Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen), none featured the slider as much as Darvish. The only pitcher to use it effectively pre-surgery (Johnson) saw a noticeable dip in its effectiveness the following year.
If there's two positives to Darvish's situation, it's the late start and his age. At 29, he's still in his prime and should be near full strength upon his return. He has a career 3.42 ERA in the second half, which may indicate he tires as the season progresses. The delayed start may allow to stay fresh in the dog days.
Do I trust Darvish? Not really. It's rare to perform better post-TJ. Would I gamble on him in fantasy drafts given his suppressed value? Yes. His current ADP is 132, or the 13th round in 10-team leagues. There's plenty of value there to grab him as a SP4-SP6 for your rotation. At that price stash him on your DL and grab a waiver wire option until May. If things turn sour, it's likely you can find a willing trade partner still willing to pay for name value.
* Stats and ADP's provided by FanGraphs, BrooksBaseball, and FantasyPros
